Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

#121 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 6:42 am

She is going west at this time but she made a early jog to the north then back to the west. Like she will go WWNW.I know she is WNW. but on the loops she goes west and then jumps north for a frame then back west
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html[img][/img]

#122 Postby **O Town** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:10 am

storms in NC wrote:She is going west at this time but she made a early jog to the north then back to the west. Like she will go WWNW.I know she is WNW. but on the loops she goes west and then jumps north for a frame then back west
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html[img][/img]

LOL, that is WNW when she moves that way.

#123 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:13 am

17/1145 UTC 20.2N 48.2W T5.0/5.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Helene is intensifiyng,now according to SSD at 90 kts.Chart of intensity below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

skufful · #124 Postby **skufful** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:18 am

O Town wrote:
storms in NC wrote:She is going west at this time but she made a early jog to the north then back to the west. Like she will go WWNW.I know she is WNW. but on the loops she goes west and then jumps north for a frame then back west
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html[img][/img]

LOL, that is WNW when she moves that way.

I think he is simply saying that she is heading west of WNW.

WeatherTracker · #125 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:22 am

cycloneye wrote:17/1145 UTC 20.2N 48.2W T5.0/5.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Helene is intensifiyng,now according to SSD at 90 kts.Chart of intensity below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

I see that also, she will be 100 mph at 11am....

WeatherTracker · #126 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:24 am

Starting to build a nice inner core.

WeatherTracker · #127 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:25 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.7mb/104.6kt

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html

WeatherTracker · #128 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:39 am

That is indicating a rapidily strengthing 120mph hurricane...

#129 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:45 am

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060917 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060917 1200 060918 0000 060918 1200 060919 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.3N 48.6W 21.4N 50.0W 22.2N 51.4W 22.7N 52.9W
BAMM 20.3N 48.6W 21.4N 50.5W 22.1N 52.3W 22.4N 53.9W
A98E 20.3N 48.6W 21.3N 50.3W 22.5N 51.9W 23.8N 53.6W
LBAR 20.3N 48.6W 21.4N 49.9W 22.3N 51.3W 22.9N 53.0W
SHIP 85KTS 88KTS 88KTS 89KTS
DSHP 85KTS 88KTS 88KTS 89KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060919 1200 060920 1200 060921 1200 060922 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 54.4W 23.5N 57.9W 25.8N 61.1W 27.6N 63.3W
BAMM 22.3N 55.7W 22.1N 59.3W 23.1N 61.7W 24.0N 62.6W
A98E 24.6N 56.0W 29.3N 59.7W 35.4N 59.7W 46.0N 50.9W
LBAR 23.1N 55.1W 23.0N 59.5W 24.6N 63.6W 25.7N 64.1W
SHIP 87KTS 80KTS 73KTS 69KTS
DSHP 87KTS 80KTS 73KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.3N LONCUR = 48.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 47.1W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 18.5N LONM24 = 45.3W
WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 70KT
CENPRS = 979MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 300NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 125NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 125NM

12:00z models start at 85kts.

WeatherTracker · #130 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:46 am

12:00z models start at 85kts.

100mph at 11am

#131 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:50 am

cycloneye wrote:17/1145 UTC 20.2N 48.2W T5.0/5.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Helene is intensifiyng,now according to SSD at 90 kts.Chart of intensity below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

sorry wrrong Quote LOL :lol:

#132 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:50 am

SkeetoBite Models Graphic at 12:00z

Above is the graphic updated with the 12:00z plots of the Bam models and the 6z globals.

WeatherTracker · #133 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:51 am

storms in NC wrote:
cycloneye wrote:17/1145 UTC 20.2N 48.2W T5.0/5.0 HELENE -- Atlantic Ocean

Helene is intensifiyng,now according to SSD at 90 kts.Chart of intensity below.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

I know she is going WNW but it seems to be more west at times than North

She is wobbling just a little...But until she develops a solid inner core, she will wobble at times....

#134 Postby **storms in NC** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:54 am

I still think they will move it more west. Not saying a EC hit but could come close

#135 Postby **Noah** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:56 am

so she is expected to move more west and then jump north?

That is what i see on NOAA.

What is making her jump north in a feew days?

Could that change depending on her forward speed?

WeatherTracker · #136 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 7:59 am

Latest Model Information

WeatherTracker · #137 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:01 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.7mb/104.6kt

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt3.html

#138 Postby **Noah** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:04 am

Derek quote:
chances of a florida hit are slimmer than Mickelson hitting 12 of 14 fairways in one match at the upcoming Ryder Cup

I could not respond on the other thread as it is locked.

Your Analogies to my questions are quite interesting.

Wish I knew who Mickelson is??? LOL :oops:

But your point was taken.. I guess its a far stretch to say florida will be hit then.

HurricaneHunter914 · #139 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:14 am

The NHC will probably, start her off around 100-110 mph. About a 30 mph jump.

WeatherTracker · #140 Postby **WeatherTracker** » Sun Sep 17, 2006 8:15 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:The NHC will probably, start her off around 100-110 mph. About a 30 mph jump.

Yup...Most likely around 100mph... then 105mph by 5pm....

Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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