Akash and Gonu thread

[HurricaneBill]

Cyclones that have struck Oman:

[Chacor]

Dated: 3rd June, 2007

Subject: Severe Cyclone Storm “GONU’ over East Central Arabian
Sea

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. SIX ISSUED AT 0200 UTC OF 3RD JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 0000 UTC CHARTS OF 3RD JUNE 2007. THE CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARDS AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM, LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF TODAY, THE 03RD JUNE 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 15.50N AND LONG 66.5.0E, ABOUT 820 KMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI.

CURRENT INTENSITY T3.5 RPT T3.5. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55-60 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T4.5 RPT T4.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.
[hr]
709
FKIN20 VIDP 030300

TC ADVISORY
------------
DTG : 20070603/0000Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI
TC : GONU
NR : 03

PSN : N1530 E06630
MOV : WNW05KT
C : 988HPA
MAX WIND : 55KT GUSTING TO 65KT
FCST PSN+12HRS : 031200 N1530 E06600
MAX WIND+12HRS : 65KT
FCST PSN+ 18HRS : 031800 N 1600 E06530
MAX WIND+18HRS : 70KT
FCST PSN+ 24HRS : 040000 N 1630 E06500
MAX WIND+24HRS : 75KT

NEXT MSG 20070603/0600Z

ENDS.

[wxmann_91]

Microwave imagery shows an eye:



Northerly shear may be hindering it a bit, however.

[Chacor]

60 kt at 09Z from JTWC... waiting for IMD's 06Z right now.

[P.K.]

Here is that update.

FKIN20 VIDP 030935

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20070603/0600Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI.
TC: GONU
NR: 04


PSN: N1600 E06630
MOV: N05KT
C: 988HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT GUSTING TO 65KT


FCST PSN+12HRS: 031800 N1630 E06600
MAX WIND+12HRS: 65KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 040000 N1700 E06530
MAX WIND+18HRS: 70KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 040600 N1700 E06500
MAX WIND+24HRS: 75KT


NEXT MSG: 20070603/1200Z

MSG OVER ????/

[P.K.]

If anyone is looking at the MetArea bulletins and wondering where Gonu is it has crossed over into MetArea IX.

WWPK20 OPKC 030750
MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FOR MET AREA IX VALID
FOR 24 HOURS COMMENCING 0900 UTC DATED 03-06-2007
BY PAKISTAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT.
PART -I: YESTERDAY’S DEPERSSION OVER EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA NOW LIES AS TROPICAL CYCLONE “GONU” AT LAT. 15.0oN AND
66.5oE. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE
IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. MORNING IR SALLITE IMAGERIES
SHOWS SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM.

PART –II: NO ALERT MESSAGE.
PART -III: FORCASTS.
SUB AREA NO.1 NORTH ARABIAN SEA
I. WIND W/SW’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20KTS.
II. WEATHER FAIR/PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT/MODERATE.
SUB AREA NO. 2 GULF OF OMAN
I. WIND SE/NW’LY 10-15 KTS.
II. WEATHER FAIR/ PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZY MORNING
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN HAZE.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT
SUB AREA NO. 3 CENTRAL NORTH ARABIAN SEA (12ºN/55ºE, 12ºN/63ºE, 20°N/58°E, 20ºN/67ºE)
I. WIND NE’LY 34-17KTS GUSTING 63KTS IN EASTERN SECTOR.
II. WEATHER CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDERSHOWERS IN EASTERN SECTOR.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN
IV. STATE OF SEA HIGH/VERY ROUGH.
SUB AREA NO. 4 GULF OF ADEN
I. WIND SE’LY 10-15 KTS GUSTING 20KTS.
II. WEATHER PARTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY WITH CHANCES OF RAIN IN EASTERN SECTOR.
III. VISIBILITY MODERATE REDUCING TO POOR IN RAIN.
IV. STATE OF SEA SLIGHT/MODERATE.

[Chacor]

What a storm!

[Chacor]

65 kt from JTWC at 15Z.

650
WWIO20 KNES 031448

SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
NORTH INDIAN OCEAN MET-7 IRNIGHT
.
JUNE 03 2007 1430Z
.
17.9N 66.4E T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS GONU(02A)
.
PAST POSITION... 16.3N 67.1E 03/0230Z VIS/IRDAY
15.5N 66.8E 02/1430Z IRNIGHT
SSMI POSITION 17.8N 66.6E 03/1351Z 85GHZ

REMARKS.....DT=5.0 BASED ON WH SURROUNDING TEMP WITH WH EYE.
PT=4.0. MET=4.5. MICROWAVE PASSES AND EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS PRESENCE OF AN EYE.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 03/2200Z.
.
FOR AREAL DISPLAY OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL SEE OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/TROP/TRAP.HTML
ALL LOWER CASE LETTERS EXCEPT PS/TROP
.
.
.
NNNN
=

[hr]
329
TPIO10 KGWC 031450
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU)
B. 03/1431Z (29)
C. 17.8N/6
D. 66.5E/7
E. THREE/MET7
F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS/ -03/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/ PBO TCB/ANMTN.

LONG

[hr]

605
TPIO10 PGTW 031223

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (GONU)

B. 03/1130Z

C. 17.5N/3

D. 66.7E/9

E. THREE/MET7

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/12HRS (03/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF 1.20
ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A 4.0 DT. PT AGREE. MET YIELDS
4.5. DBO DT AND PT.

SCANLIN

[HURAKAN]

Now, show us your eye!!!

[Chacor]

212
FKIN20 VIDP 031552

TC ADVISORY
-----------
DTG: 20070603/1200Z
TCAC: NEW DELHI.
TC: GONU
NR: 05


PSN: N1730 E06630
MOV: N12KT
C: 984HPA
MAX WIND: 55KT GUSTING TO 65KT


FCST PSN+12HRS: 040000 N1830 E06600
MAX WIND+12HRS: 65KT
FCST PSN+18HRS: 040600 N1900 E06500
MAX WIND+18HRS: 70KT
FCST PSN+24HRS: 041200 N1930 E06430
MAX WIND+24HRS: 75KT


NEXT MSG: 20070603/1800Z

MSG OVER ????/

[windstorm99]

Eye is already begining to show up on infrared imagery...

[Category 5]

I know the intensity system is different. In our system, how strong would this be?

[Chacor]

I know the intensity system is different. In our system, how strong would this be?

IMD uses 10-minutes. Taking a 1.14 conversion is about 63 kt. The JTWC currently has it at 65 kt.

[HurricaneRobert]

The forecast at the NRL site has it making landfall between 50 and 70 knots. This could be the strongest cyclone on record for the Arabian peninsula.

[HURAKAN]

Nice eye!!!

[wxmann_91]

Very impressive. Cat 2 now per NRL.

[HurricaneRobert]

Wow. Is that a pinhole eye? I wonder what the updated track will say. Oman may have to brace for this thing. Could this have an effect on oil prices?

[HURAKAN]

Dated: 3rd June, 2007

Subject: Severe Cyclone Storm “GONU’ over East Central Arabian
Sea

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI

TROPICAL STORM “GONU” ADVISORY NO. ELEVEN ISSUED AT 1700 UTC OF 3RD JUNE, 2007 BASED ON 1500 UTC CHARTS OF 3RD JUNE 2007. THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM “GONU” OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 03RD JUNE 2007 OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LAT. 17.50N AND LONG 66.50E, ABOUT 700 KMS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI.

CURRENT INTENSITY T3.5 RPT T3.5. SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW SOLID INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HPA. MAXIMUM SURFACE SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55-60 KTS.

FORECAST: THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 24 HOURS FORECAST INTENSITY IS T4.5 RPT T4.5. SEA CONDITION WILL BE VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL.

[HURAKAN]

03/2030 UTC 18.3N 65.7E T5.5/5.5 GONU -- Arabian Sea

100 knots (1-min) according to Dvorak.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.