INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[AnnularCane]

Experience tells me that these iffy tropical systems often do not produce anywhere near as much rain as anticipated. If it just cuts across Florida, and we return to ultra-dry air for two weeks on the "subsident side" of the low, then it will not have really helped the situation.

What we need is the good old-fashioned pattern of daily slow-moving thunderstorms....we never really seem to get this anymore throughout the balance of a rainy season. It's either heavy rain or dry air.

You can have mine. I've had my share of those the last couple of days, and they're expecting more today. I'm getting tired of it.

Has a storm ever developed on June 1 before?

[Ivanhater]

12z CMC

[Opal storm]

Until recon gets out there im not taking these models too seriously.

[Aric Dunn]

the shear continues to decrease..... http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
the 15z analysis.. upper ridge is still moving over top of it.. if it developes now would be the time.....

anyway .. yeah its in its best possible spot right now

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 19.3 87.1 345./ 5.0
6 19.7 87.5 318./ 5.5
12 20.0 87.5 6./ 2.8
18 20.5 87.4 15./ 4.6
24 20.9 86.5 65./ 8.7
30 21.4 86.3 20./ 6.2
36 21.7 86.2 33./ 2.9
42 22.4 85.6 41./ 9.1
48 23.0 84.9 47./ 8.2

STORM DISSIPATED AT 48 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


12z GFDL dissipates whatever comes out of this in 48 hours.

[sevenleft]

Until recon gets out there im not taking these models too seriously.

Well the system doesn't have a whole lot of places to go besides towards Florida.

[windstorm99]

Sorry about that...Posted twice.

[Aric Dunn]

[Opal storm]

Shear still looks to be a problem in the Gulf.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

[Aric Dunn]

Shear still looks to be a problem in the Gulf.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

but that maybe 24 to 36 hrs away.plenty of time.. upper building over now...http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic ... g8shr.html

[Aric Dunn]

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED 1006 MB...IS LOCATED
ABOUT 75 MI SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO. THIS LOW SITS ALONG AN
ELONGATED SFC TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM NICARAGUA TO THE SRN
GULF. THIS LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A BIG AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOSTLY ALONG AND TO THE E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MOST ORGANIZED FROM 16N-23N
BETWEEN 79W-87W. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME OF THIS
STRONGER ACTIVITY PULLING N INTO RADAR RANGE. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND
FOR THAT REASON THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MODELS SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING TO THE N/NE INTO A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WHICH
WOULD FAVOR NON-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS OF WHAT
FORMS...TROPICAL OR NON-TROPICAL...ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ACROSS WRN CUBA AND S FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Noah]

waht does it mean by "may"occur

[Zadok]

S. Fla. could soon see heavy rains from tropical disturbance

By Ken Kaye
Sun-Sentinel.com
Posted May 31 2007, 12:35 PM EDT

South Florida is likely going to see rain -- and potentially heavy downpours -- Friday night and Saturday from a tropical disturbance in the northwest Caribbean.

"It's really dependent on how organized this thing is when it comes through and where it's going to go," said meteorologist Andy Tingler, of the National Weather Service in Miami. "It's kind of up in the air at the moment."

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/ ... -news-sfla

[Alacane2]

Mobile is 14.22 inches below normal. Had we not received almost an inch of rain yesterday, our deficit would be in excess of 15 inches.

[Cookiely]

I'm praying we get some rain in Tampa and the rest of Florida to put out the fires.

[Rainband]

Most of Florida should see rain, depends on the track if we get alot. Most if not all of the moisture will be east of the Low if it remains disorganized and sheared.

[JonathanBelles]

First time I have seen red.

[Frank2]

Sounds good - enough shear to prevent development, but, plenty of moisture that we need. The only issue might be the strong shear, which per the NWS might lead to some severe weather in the form of thunderstorms...

[gatorcane]

certainly seems like there is some rotation starting -- its a good thing there is shear there right now.

[Frank2]

Yes - hopefully just rain for the gators (the kind in the water - not on the field)...