Atlantic INVEST 93L: W Africa

[Aric Dunn]

[boca]

I'm surprised they have 93L going that far west before recurvature.

[boca]

I need the link to that model site please.

[Aric Dunn]

I need the link to that model site please.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/3_hurr.html

[Aric Dunn]

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 NM SE OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS ALONG 17/18W S OF 15N. THE WAVE IS MOVING JUST N OF
DUE WEST NEAR 20 KT AND REMAINS WELL DEFINED FOR EARLY JUNE. A
PAIR OF SFC LOWS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE NEAR 13N17W AND 8N18W. THE
LATTER CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY THE FOCAL POINT. ALTHOUGH
CLIMATOLOGY IS NOT ON ITS SIDE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN
18N-24N. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 19W-21W.

[Cyclenall]

Just another system to waste my time. Only 1 day off the past 2 weeks and it's just June and all we had was Barry last weekend and maybe Chantal tomorrow. NHC won't do anything overnight. They'll wait to make sure convection persists until morning then upgrade it. Should be a short forecast track. Have to get up at 5 and go to work. Night all.....

Wow, that would be something even if it's short lived. Remember when you said this:

It's interesting to note that I promised my boss no named storms until August 1st in 2004, too. The first TD formed the evening of July 31st and we had Alex August 1st. Let's see if I can do it again!

What does your boss think right now?

[Chacor]

I've done a little research and compared the 2005-2007 seasons first five INVESTs, depressions and named storms by date of INVEST formation.

2006 includes the unnamed storm as 2nd storm.

Code: Select all

                        DATE DECLARED INVEST
STORM           2005            2006            2007
90L INVEST    JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08
91L INVEST    JUNE 09         JUNE 23          MAY 18
92L INVEST    JUNE 13         JUNE 24          MAY 31
93L INVEST    JUNE 15         JUNE 25         JUNE 09
94L INVEST    JUNE 24         JUNE 29

FIRST DEPR    JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08
SECND DEPR    JUNE 28        NO INVEST         MAY 31
THIRD DEPR    JULY 03         JULY 17
FOURTH DEP    JULY 04         JULY 27
FIFTH DEPR    JULY 09        AUGUST 21

FIRST STORM   JUNE 08         JUNE 08          MAY 08
SECND STORM   JUNE 28        NO INVEST         MAY 31
THIRD STORM   JULY 03         JULY 17
FOURTH STRM   JULY 04         JULY 27
FIFTH STORM   JULY 09        AUGUST 21

Later today, if I have the time, I'll do a comparison v.s. EPac and maybe WPac for the past three years.

As promised, I'm now gonna have a look at the EPacs from 2005 - 2007 as well, just for interest as a comparison.

[Aric Dunn]

T number are up to 1.0

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/0515 UTC 9.2N 21.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
10/0000 UTC 8.2N 18.6W TOO WEAK 93L

[Brent]

Yikes... *checks calendar*

[TheRingo]

I don't see much shearing to get in it's way. Only the ridge is keeping it west til it gets closer to 50w.

[Aric Dunn]

it now could be a TD at least by the t numbers... NHC will wait till tomorrow

[Chacor]

Code: Select all

AT THE FIRST 93L.INVEST...

2005 (JUNE 13) HAD ONE ATLANTIC CYCLONE AND ONE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE
2006 (JUNE 25) HAD ONE ATLANTIC CYCLONE AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES
2007 (JUNE 09) HAD TWO ATLANTIC CYCLONES AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES

AT JUNE 9...

2005 HAD ONE ATLANTIC CYCLONE AND ONE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE
2006 HAD NO ATLANTIC CYCLONES AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES
2007 HAD TWO ATLANTIC CYCLONES AND TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES

AT THE THIRD NAMED ATLANTIC STORM...

2005 HAD 8 ATLANTIC INVESTS (97L BECAME DENNIS*) AND FOUR EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES
2006 HAD 8 ATLANTIC INVESTS (97L BECAME BERYL*) AND FIVE EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES
2007 HAD ? ATLANTIC INVESTS (CURRENTLY FOUR) AND ? EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES (CURRENTLY TWO)

*96L BECAME CINDY BUT 97L FORMED BEFORE CINDY WAS NAMED
*COUNTS THE UNNAMED STORM
         
                           2005               2006*            2007
DATE OF FORMATION      ATL     EPAC       ATL     EPAC      ATL     EPAC
FIRST DEPRESSION     JUNE 08  MAY 17    JUNE 10  MAY 26     N/A    MAY 26
SECOND DEPRESSION    JUNE 28  JUNE 21   JULY 17  JUNE 03    N/A    MAY 29
THIRD DEPRESSION     JULY 03  JUNE 26   JULY 18  JULY 10
FOURTH DEPRESSION    JULY 04  JULY 03   JULY 31  JULY 11
FIFTH DEPRESSION     JULY 10  JULY 18  AUGUST 21 JULY 16

DATE OF STRENGTHENING
FIRST STORM          JUNE 09  MAY 17    JUNE 10  MAY 26    MAY 09  MAY 28
SECOND STORM         JUNE 28  JUNE 22   JULY 17  JULY 10   JUNE 02 MAY 30
THIRD STORM          JULY 05  JUNE 26   JULY 18  JULY 11
FOURTH STORM         JULY 05  JULY 04  AUGUST 01 JULY 17
FIFTH STORM          JULY 11  JULY 18  AUGUST 22 JULY 21

*COUNTS THE UNNAMED STORM AS SECOND DEPRESSION AND SECOND STORM

[Chacor]

it now could be a TD at least by the t numbers... NHC will wait till tomorrow

Uh... T1.0 isn't good enough, usually NHC will wait for T1.5 or T2.0.

[Steve]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Here's the Channel 4 loop if anyone hasn't checked it out in a while.

Steve

[Scorpion]

Hehe I'm a little tipsy tonight and just noticed this... wow am I surprised

[windstorm99]

Convection seems to be on the decrease threw the overnight hours...

[windstorm99]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 100855
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[windstorm99]

[DanKellFla]

Early 5:30 Outlook:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 100855
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE THE WAVE ENCOUNTERS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Thunder44]

I think the chances of this system becoming a TD (assuming this hasn't become one already) is decreasing. On NRL visible and infrared images, it looks like the center, which appears to be a broad low to mid-level center is moving WNW and is very near 10N. Convection appears more limited and less organized around the center this morning and SST's are getting cooler north of 10N. I don't think it will have much of chance to organize further for TPC to classify as TD.