Ex Invest 95L

[SouthFloridawx]

Unless it moves south under the Upper Level High, I don't think we'll see much out of this at all. It will still be on the Northern Portion of the ULH for the next48-72 Hours until finally sheer will begin to relax...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif" target="_blank

[SouthFloridawx]

Only if convection eventually persists, to keep it going.

ok look .... the gfs says that .. gfs says there will be something so it keeps it there.. does not mean it will happen... but yeah .. there are no "only if's" its just a model you take for what it is.. you see if it verifies..
oh well sorry about that...

Yep, that's usually what one does, when watching a model with a particular interesting feature, that may or may not do something... Doesn't matter anyway, no big deal...

[Aric Dunn]

Unless it moves south under the Upper Level High, I don't think we'll see much out of this at all. It will still be on the Northern Portion of the ULH for the next48-72 Hours until finally sheer will begin to relax...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif" target="_blank" target="_blank

aaahh .. but the shear is much lighter in that map.. no longer 30 more like 10 to 20( well i see 2 barbs that are still 30 .but over all much lighter than say today.. ... and if you look at the shear tendency loop.. you notice that it should be with in a resonable range in the next 24hrs/...

[Aric Dunn]

Only if convection eventually persists, to keep it going.

ok look .... the gfs says that .. gfs says there will be something so it keeps it there.. does not mean it will happen... but yeah .. there are no "only if's" its just a model you take for what it is.. you see if it verifies..
oh well sorry about that...

Yep, that's usually what one does, when watching a model with a particular interesting feature, that may or may not do something... Doesn't matter anyway, no big deal...

yep

[Aric Dunn]

the ridge to the south is forecast to still move northward .. which would bring lighter shear but not no shear... that is very clear on the loop

[Recurve]

This is the dullest rainy season ever

Sorry you're not here, it's apparently moved south. Seems like the wettest, stormiest rainy season in years in the upper keys.
And still the Lake is dry. Let's hope 95L stalls over lake Okeechobee.

[fci]

This is the dullest rainy season ever

Sorry you're not here, it's apparently moved south. Seems like the wettest, stormiest rainy season in years in the upper keys.
And still the Lake is dry. Let's hope 95L stalls over lake Okeechobee.

Unfortunately where it is located is where it is dry!

[Recurve]

This is the dullest rainy season ever

Sorry you're not here, it's apparently moved south. Seems like the wettest, stormiest rainy season in years in the upper keys.
And still the Lake is dry. Let's hope 95L stalls over lake Okeechobee.

Unfortunately where it is located is where it is dry!

Yes that is too bad. We've been getting the rain for two months almost that the lake needs.

It looks like the low is in the right place though, if it doesn't move off northeast too fast. Keys discussion mentions being on the subsiding side here.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS(700-200 MB)...LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DEPICT
SEVERAL IMPORTANT LARGE SCALE FEATURES THAT FOLLOW: A NARROW MID AND
UPPER RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO SOUTH GEORGIA. TO THE
WEST...THERE IS AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED UPPER LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE TROPICS...A LARGE
WARM AND DRY CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR JAMAICA.
AS A RESULT OF THESE BLOCKING SYSTEMS...ABUNDANT UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS
EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THIS IS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE
BENEATH DRY AND WARM MID AND UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE.

IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAIL A
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 30N 50W WESTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA. ON THE REGIONAL SCALE...AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE
IS CENTERED NEAR MIAMI. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LOCATED FROM THE CAY SAL BANK NORTHWARD TO OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE KEYS LIE ON AN
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION.

.CURRENTLY...GIVEN THAT THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED
A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE HAD MORE OF A WEST
TO NORTHWEST COMPONENT. LATEST PWAT READINGS FROM INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR SENSORS DUE INDICATE SOME LOW AND MIDDLE
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE HAD ENSUED AS THEY INDICATED PWAT HAS FALLEN ABOUT
A QUARTER OF AN INCH AT GEIGER KEY AND MARATHON. THIS RESULTED IN AN
UPDATE TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND ADJUST WIND DIRECTION
BEFORE NOON.

AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE KEYS. RADAR DETECTS
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE CHOKOLOSKEE WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS. WINDS
OVER LAND AND ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF RANGE ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS OVER MUCH OF THE KEYS...EXCEPT NEARLY CALM
ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS.

.FORECAST...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOOKS
AS IF THE BEST DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR THE BAHAMAS. THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BENEATH THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
DIFFLUENCE SHOULD SKEDADDLE NORTHWARD...AS THE CENTER OF THE
CARIBBEAN ANTICYCLONE MOVE ACROSS CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
AN ELONGATED RIDGE OVER THE KEYS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS...THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION NOW ANALYZED NEAR MIAMI SHOULD ONLY AMBLE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
SEABREEZE FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MIGHT SEND OFF AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTO THE UPPER KEYS AND OR FLORIDA BAY BUT MOST OF THE
MAINLAND CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. GIVEN
THAT THE SURFACE TO 10000 FOOT WINDS ARE WEST TO NORTHWEST...CUMULUS
LINES ARE NOT FAVORED OVER THE KEYS THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT. SO GIVEN
THIS...HAVE ELECTED TO DROP DOWN RAIN CHANCE TO ISOLATED.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS IS THE CASE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...MODELS DO NOT LEAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THEIR SCENARIOS
GIVEN THE INITIALIZATIONS. ALTHOUGH 12Z NAM AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING PWAT NEAR 2.00 INCHES...NOT SURE THAT
THE ACTUAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS THE GREATEST FOR CUMULUS LINE
PRODUCTION. GIVEN ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND THE LACK OF CERTAINTY WITH
THIS BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...HAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN POPS JUST
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT 30 PERCENT. IT APPEARS
WITH THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OVER THE BAHAMAS IS IN PLACE AND GIVEN A
BROAD LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WOULD
THINK THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED ON THE NEXT MODEL RUN. CAN
AFFORD TO WAIT ON THAT FOR NOW. SO WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT FOR THIS
PERIOD.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA...AS A LOW MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD RIGHT
OVER THE KEYS ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND MID LEVEL
TROUGH COULD SWEEP BY THE KEYS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD
KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB...THINK THAT CUMULUS LINES LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET EACH DAY. SO WILL HOLD WITH INHERITED LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN.

[CrazyC83]

Name or no name, the effects are the same.

That rhymes!

Yeah it does and it is useful when suggesting that it is worse when it gets a name versus the lack of a closed circulation...open waves and lows can be as dangerous sometimes due to the heavy rain and squalls...

[WindRunner]

Unless it moves south under the Upper Level High, I don't think we'll see much out of this at all. It will still be on the Northern Portion of the ULH for the next48-72 Hours until finally sheer will begin to relax...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

And by then it should be well on its way to being absorbed by a frontal zone . . . no storm this time . . .

[windstorm99]

Unless it moves south under the Upper Level High, I don't think we'll see much out of this at all. It will still be on the Northern Portion of the ULH for the next48-72 Hours until finally sheer will begin to relax...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank" target="_blank

And by then it should be well on its way to being absorbed by a frontal zone . . . no storm this time . . .

I agree this weak low will more then likely move out to sea with no fan fanfare.

NHC 8:05PM Discussion

LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...NWP MODELS DRIFT THE
BROAD LOW OVER S FLA TO THE NNE INTO THE WRN ATLC AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK HIGH PRES TO REMAIN IN CONTROL
KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS OF LITTLE CONCERN. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE W GULF NEAR THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW.

[Tropigal]

we've gotten some great rains on the central west coast of FL these past few days, I'm guessing its from this low...

[Cyclone1]

Hey hey, you you, I don't like your girlfriend! No way, no way, think you need a new one.... Oh sorry, just trying to break the silence.

[cycloneye]

000
WHXX01 KWBC 300038
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC SAT JUN 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952007) 20070630 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070630 0000 070630 1200 070701 0000 070701 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 81.3W 28.0N 81.9W 28.3N 82.1W 28.6N 82.1W
BAMD 27.4N 81.3W 27.9N 81.0W 28.3N 80.6W 28.8N 79.9W
BAMM 27.4N 81.3W 27.8N 81.6W 28.1N 81.6W 28.5N 81.2W
LBAR 27.4N 81.3W 28.4N 81.0W 29.2N 80.1W 29.8N 78.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070702 0000 070703 0000 070704 0000 070705 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.8N 81.0W 29.4N 79.5W 30.0N 79.8W 31.5N 80.0W
BAMD 29.7N 78.5W 31.7N 70.2W 37.0N 50.6W 45.3N 31.6W
BAMM 28.9N 80.0W 29.8N 76.6W 30.4N 72.3W 31.1N 66.8W
LBAR 30.3N 76.4W 32.0N 69.3W 38.5N 56.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 34KTS 40KTS 33KTS 23KTS
DSHP 37KTS 44KTS 36KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 81.3W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 26.3N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 4DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 24.7N LONM24 = 81.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 190NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Oh my,the pressure is starting to drop now down to 1014 mbs a sign that 95L is deepening and getting better organized.Hey folks,I am just kidding.

[TampaFl]

we've gotten some great rains on the central west coast of FL these past few days, I'm guessing its from this low...

Not here in Brandon, FL (12 miles east of Tampa), have not had any rain since last Friday 6/22. For the month only have 4.77" while the "official" gauge @ Tampa International has measured 8.68" since 6/1, an anomoly for sure since the rest of Hillsborough Co has only recieved any where between 2 - 5" for the month . We desperatly need the rain!!

[Alacane2]

Here in Mobile, we have received only 2.27" in June. We are 16.96" below normal for the year. Since January 2006, we are 32.70" below normal. Sure wish this disturbance would move this way an just sit here for a few days.

[Cyclenall]

I haven't been paying attention to this system since it has such a low low chance at becoming a TC. At best, 2%.

[artist]

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 300202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND CLOUDINESS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Posting this only for continuation of the information.The best thing that this area can bring is some relieve from the drought conditions especially let's see if the big Lake Okechobee gets plenty of rain.

[canetracker]

Kick me if I am wrong, but the area by the Yucatan looks almost the same as 95L. I do hope this system will bring needed rains to Florida, but don't think this will develop.