Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

the smaller one further east .. is not surrounded by dust.. I like that one.. its nice.,...

[canegrl04]

the smaller one further east .. is not surrounded by dust.. I like that one.. its nice.,...

I embarrassed myself.I thought we were still on the larger wave . Maybe we will finally see some real development from the one further east

[ronjon]

I agree this wave could be the first cape verde cyclone. The 12Z Euro shows a big drop off in shear over almost the entire Atlantic basin in 5 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[cycloneye]

The monsoon trough is pretty active now.

[Aric Dunn]

The monsoon trough is pretty active now.

something needs to go rain over the desert where the dust is..

[Bane]

I agree this wave could be the first cape verde cyclone. The 12Z Euro shows a big drop off in shear over almost the entire Atlantic basin in 5 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html

it's too early for cape verde development.

[Cyclone1]

I agree this wave could be the first cape verde cyclone. The 12Z Euro shows a big drop off in shear over almost the entire Atlantic basin in 5 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html

it's too early for cape verde development.

Uh... actually, CV season starts around late July, and it's ... ya know... late July and... yeah.

[Weatherfreak14]

No not really at all. This is about the time of year where it is time to watch the waves roll of the africian coast and become tropicial cyclones. I think we are right on time and everything in the next week or so will be mostly favorible for tropicial development for the cape verde storms

[Bane]

I agree this wave could be the first cape verde cyclone. The 12Z Euro shows a big drop off in shear over almost the entire Atlantic basin in 5 days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html

it's too early for cape verde development.

Uh... actually, CV season starts around late July, and it's ... ya know... late July and... yeah.

name me 5 storms that developed in the cape verde region during late july in the last ten years. the cape verde season usually starts in mid august.

[Cyclone1]

It usually picks up in mid-August. Conditions are nearly as favorable in July, it just has less waves rolling off Africa. Now, we have a few waves, so we could easily get a storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hurricane Emily (2005)
Tropical Storm Alex (1998)

Thats what I can come up with so far. Point is, just because It hasnt happened yet, doesnt mean that it cant now. Did anything think that what would happen in 2005 would happen? No. But did it? Yes! So This could still happen aswell, despite the fact that It is still July, which is when the Cape Verde season begins.

[Bane]

Hurricane Emily (2005)
Tropical Storm Alex (1998)

Thats what I can come up with so far. Point is, just because It hasnt happened yet, doesnt mean that it cant now. Did anything think that what would happen in 2005 would happen? No. But did it? Yes! So This could still happen aswell, despite the fact that It is still July, which is when the Cape Verde season begins.

you just made my point with the text i bolded. climatologically speaking, the cape verde season starts in august.

[wxmann_91]

Hurricane Emily (2005)
Tropical Storm Alex (1998)

Thats what I can come up with so far. Point is, just because It hasnt happened yet, doesnt mean that it cant now. Did anything think that what would happen in 2005 would happen? No. But did it? Yes! So This could still happen aswell, despite the fact that It is still July, which is when the Cape Verde season begins.

IIRC, CV season begins in August. Can CV storms form in July? Sure. But the season itself does not begin until August.

[Meso]

[Cyclone1]

Ok, so the GFS now closes off a (stonger) low 3 days earlier than it did before. I'm getting anxious to see how this turns out.

[Bane]

the gfs forms 100 lows out there very year. it gets it right maybe 5-10% of the time.

[Meso]

Well naturally some don't happen,but some do.. And one can not simply state "It always shows lows" with every single low it does show.One of those 5-10%s have to be right.. and it's always something to watch.. Besides it's not only the gfs showing this... Other models are also showing a low in the same area.. The main question is if it does develop.. How long will it survive for

[curtadams]

The GFS is a lot better than 5-10% at predicting *lows*. That said, the African monsoonal trough seems to confuse the models and they get extra - um - imaginative around the trough. The UKM also had the low last night, but retrograded it, which is typical of these monsoonal trough phantoms.

[Bane]

The GFS is a lot better than 5-10% at predicting *lows*. That said, the African monsoonal trough seems to confuse the models and they get extra - um - imaginative around the trough. The UKM also had the low last night, but retrograded it, which is typical of these monsoonal trough phantoms.

not really, especially beyond 48-72 hours.

[HURAKAN]

I think we should remember that a computer model forecast that is based on many factors, when just one of those factors fails, the forecast fails. Because of this, using computer forecast for long range forecast is a very uncertain science. Computer forecast should be used for 24 to 48 hours, because the large errors start beyond that. GFS has been proven over the past years to be one of the most reliable, and that's why the NHC uses it as much as they do.

Nonetheless, even if technology continues to improve, it will still be a forecast!!!