Tropical Wave in Western GOM

[Rainband]

Upper level winds save the day

[KFDM Meteorologist]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 25 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

[Normandy]

^ I guess so.
I mean doesnt really matter if this becomes anything....its almost certain it will cause major flooding in Houston and the rest of the Upper Texas Coast because of the abundant rainfaill weve had.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yup!

[Rainband]

You guys and Gals stay safe

[Sanibel]

For something expected not to develop because of upper winds that disturbance has some pretty good wrapping going on. Hmmm.

[wxman57]

For something expected not to develop because of upper winds that disturbance has some pretty good wrapping going on. Hmmm.

Nothing "wrapping up" as far as I can see. In fact, just the opposite - flow is anticyclonic (flow around high pressure) out there. No cyclonic turning that I can see.

And one other thing - why are there multiple threads on this same system? Can't we cut it to one?

[Sanibel]

Should be closer to radar tomorrow to see if it has anything to it. (If it doesn't poof first) The 'wrapping' could be a coincidental vortex associated with confluence at the mid-levels.

[wxman57]

Should be closer to radar tomorrow to see if it has anything to it. (If it doesn't poof first) The 'wrapping' could be a coincidental vortex associated with confluence at the mid-levels.

But there are already plenty of surface obs out there in the Gulf, so we already know which way the wind is blowing. Radar won't tell us much more, and it only extends out a very short distance from the coast (maybe 30 miles) anywhere near the surface. Beyond that, the beam is elevated higher and higher into the mid levels by 100 miles.

[TexWx]

It appears most of this is actually drifting towards Louisiana...
(or does it just "look" that way?)

[vaffie]

Pressures in the western coast of the Yucatan have dropped to their lowest levels yet at 545pm CST--1009.0 mb--from 1014 mb this morning, and still falling, as the wave in the NW Caribbean/Yucatan emerges into the Bay of Campeche.


http://www.wunderground.com/history/air ... story.html

[crazycajuncane]

Regadless of what it is... 70% chance of rain

Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Someone is going to get some major rainfall. Probably not wipespread, but someone will get soaked.

[rockyman]

I'm watching the "clear area" between the Yucatan and the blob in the central BOC...the overall curvature of the clouds would indicate this area could be the "center" of any surface low...storms are refiring over the Yucatan...also, upper level conditions appear a little less hostile here than they do further west over the BOC.

[Brent]

Don't really see anything that organized here, but I think it's a sign that the tropics will soon be getting more active. Chantal won't be far away IMO.

More rain for Texas(again) though.

[jasons2k]

I've been looking at the low level clouds on the last set of visibles and there is clearly no LLC yet with this system. Just a disorganized mess, at least until the Yucatan wave enters the GOM.

[Opal storm]

This thing caught my eye early this morning when I was watching TWC. Now that I've looked more at it it's really not that impressive IMO. Maybe if it wasn't moving so fast it would have a chance.

But definitely some heavy rain and rough surf for Texas/Louisiana.

[lrak]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

interesting don't you think?

fast drop and ENE, all of a sudden...hmmm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

MLC developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Interesting...Will be watching if it gets to the surface.

[NDG]

MLC developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. Interesting...Will be watching if it gets to the surface.

Yeah, MCL has been noticed since earlier this afternoon, but nothing yet at the surface, in fact buoy 42055 just underneath or a few miles to the south of the MLC is still reporting ENE winds.

[wjs3]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

interesting don't you think?

fast drop and ENE, all of a sudden...hmmm

The pressure in the tropics rises and falls each day. If you look at the longer term graph:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... wdpr&uom=E

Pressures are higher than at the same time yesterday.

WJS3