Invest 98L in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 281814
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1814 UTC SAT JUL 28 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070728 1800 070729 0600 070729 1800 070730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 73.7W 26.8N 73.2W 28.6N 72.0W 30.4N 70.7W
BAMD 25.4N 73.7W 26.7N 72.8W 28.5N 71.7W 30.6N 70.2W
BAMM 25.4N 73.7W 26.7N 73.1W 28.6N 71.9W 30.4N 70.5W
LBAR 25.4N 73.7W 26.2N 72.9W 27.8N 72.3W 29.8N 71.7W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070730 1800 070731 1800 070801 1800 070802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 32.2N 69.2W 36.1N 65.9W 39.6N 62.2W 41.1N 58.1W
BAMD 32.6N 68.0W 37.4N 62.8W 42.4N 55.6W 47.1N 37.4W
BAMM 32.3N 68.7W 36.6N 64.4W 40.8N 58.9W 41.9N 47.4W
LBAR 32.0N 70.9W 36.8N 67.8W 40.7N 60.0W 41.8N 48.1W
SHIP 49KTS 60KTS 58KTS 44KTS
DSHP 49KTS 60KTS 58KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.4N LONCUR = 73.7W DIRCUR = 30DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 25.4N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 138DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 25.4N LONM24 = 73.8W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[xironman]

Sure, but I know that satellite images can be misleading, and since there are few surface observation points out there, what are the proper caveats for interpreting these images? In this case the image seems to show a good indication of something going on at that point that would be of interest.

[RL3AO]

That is what QuikScat does. It shows you if there is a surface low and how strong the winds are. Very good tool.

[DrewFL]

12Z GFDL and HWRF are also available. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB pressures 24 hrs.:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[xironman]

Thanks RL3AO,
Then I guess there would be a real surface low. The GDFL looks interesting for Bermuda anyways. Any chance the weather could be drawn towards OBX by the approaching troughs?

[Thunder44]

It's probably overdone, but the 12z CMC looks like develops this system into a hurricane by 72hrs and takes into the Canadian Maritimes by 96hrs:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Berwick Bay]

cpdaman said
well i can't beleive how far that SE trough is digging i mean it's getting all the way down to cuba

and it is not going anywhere anytime soon
___________________________________________________
You're right CP. I can't remember the last time that I saw a trough in July dig down this deep. Those storms south of Fl will soon be south of central Cuba if this keeps up.

[miamicanes177]

I'm surprised they called this an invest, but it could be another test. Before anyone charges me with committing a federal crime by suggesting that the NHC doesn't REALLY think this is significant enough for an invest but they want to run more tests, just consider that such tests are good. They verify that everything works properly. Tests help protect the public. I'm not "accusing" them of doing anything bad. They're doing their job, working to protect the public. One clue is that the last discussion said absolutely nothing about this bob. Just keep in mind that they did make some major software changes in June with respect to the ingestion of model data (simplified description). The only way to really be sure that the software changes work well with real invest headers is to have an invest and test it. A test invest won't do, they need the real thing. So, it could be a test. No harm done, as these invests aren't broadcast to the public. You guys know about them because you're all hurricane nuts and you seek them out.

So if it's another test, that's good. It shows the NHC is preparing for the heart of the season and they want to make sure all is working properly. Better to find out the software upgrades don't work right now, when any threat is minimal, than later when a significant threat develops. Let's see what they say in the next outlook discussion. I suspect they'll mention the area but say development is unlikely.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this subject again because I feel this is not a test by the NHC. I think this is the real thing. I believe this is indeed an invest and NHC have therefore called it 98L. It would seem quite odd if nearly all of the invests would simply be tests.

[Meso]

The GFDL also shows it reaching hurricane intensity as well.

[storms in NC]

I'm surprised they called this an invest, but it could be another test. Before anyone charges me with committing a federal crime by suggesting that the NHC doesn't REALLY think this is significant enough for an invest but they want to run more tests, just consider that such tests are good. They verify that everything works properly. Tests help protect the public. I'm not "accusing" them of doing anything bad. They're doing their job, working to protect the public. One clue is that the last discussion said absolutely nothing about this bob. Just keep in mind that they did make some major software changes in June with respect to the ingestion of model data (simplified description). The only way to really be sure that the software changes work well with real invest headers is to have an invest and test it. A test invest won't do, they need the real thing. So, it could be a test. No harm done, as these invests aren't broadcast to the public. You guys know about them because you're all hurricane nuts and you seek them out.

So if it's another test, that's good. It shows the NHC is preparing for the heart of the season and they want to make sure all is working properly. Better to find out the software upgrades don't work right now, when any threat is minimal, than later when a significant threat develops. Let's see what they say in the next outlook discussion. I suspect they'll mention the area but say development is unlikely.

I'm going to have to disagree with you on this subject again because I feel this is not a test by the NHC. I think this is the real thing. I believe this is indeed an invest and NHC have therefore called it 98L. It would seem quite odd if nearly all of the invests would simply be tests.

But he is a PRO and they are never wrong. Sorry I don't like those who try and put others down just cause they have something behind their name. He maybe a good Met but I think he can be understanding here not everyone went to Met school.

There is a quite a few on here that could out do him in a heart beat.

As far as I can see about this invest Or test LOL it is being pulled by the ULL. Wait and see if it can break away from it.

Sorry if I stepped out of line.

Deb

[jrod]

It looks unimpressive to me right now. I doubt this is a test by the NHC and because many computer models are developing and QuikSCAT should a possible closed low they are watching it. Im going to guess the NHC on their next update will write development if any should be slow to occur.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If I had to bet right now; I'd say it will only be a threat to Nova Scotia or especially Newfoundland, or might even be a fish. Honestly even if it does develop, I'm not even that concerned about it sitting here in SW New Brunswick, little own for Cape Hatteras or New England.

I'd like to hear other peoples thought on this system’s possible track.

[HURAKAN]

28/1745 UTC 25.2N 73.7W TOO WEAK 98L -- Atlantic Ocean

[CrazyC83]

I'm now on the train with the models. I do think we will get Chantal out of this. I don't agree with the model that blows it all the way to about 945 mb south of Greenland though (a Category 3 hurricane in the subarctic Atlantic???)

[Cyclone1]

I'm now on the train with the models. I do think we will get Chantal out of this. I don't agree with the model that blows it all the way to about 945 mb south of Greenland though (a Category 3 hurricane in the subarctic Atlantic???)

LOL, extratropical, I'm sure.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm now on the train with the models. I do think we will get Chantal out of this. I don't agree with the model that blows it all the way to about 945 mb south of Greenland though (a Category 3 hurricane in the subarctic Atlantic???)

I tend to agree. I seriously doubt that can happened unless a storm obtained that strength LONG before it reached Sub artic seas, even then it would be a long shot.

[CrazyC83]

Models:

CMC - develops, strengthens to a Cat 2-3

GFDL - develops, strengthens to a Cat 1

GFS - develops a TS then absorbs by a new system

HWRF - fails to develop

NOGAPS - absorbs by a new system which strengthens

UKM - develops but only becomes a TS

[xironman]

There must be something going on down there with all the different wind directions

ID T1 TIME LAT LON DIST HDG WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD APD MWD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP
(GMT) nm °T °T kts kts ft sec sec °T in in °F °F
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 1800 25.00 -75.50 190 271 250 8.9 - 3.3 7.0 - - 29.94 -0.03 86.0 84.2
SHIP S 1800 25.90 -75.60 202 286 330 9.9 - 1.6 1.0 - - 29.97 - 85.6 81.0
SHIP S 1800 21.40 -70.20 238 155 150 13.0 - 4.9 2.0 - - 30.00 -0.04 88.0 -
SHIP S 1800 26.70 -67.80 249 65 180 11.1 - - - - - 29.88

[Cyclone1]

Well, 4 outta 6 ain't bad.