INVEST 99L,East of Windwards

[gatorcane]

Looking at the latest sat pics, it would appear that convection is starting to wane probably because of the dry air Derek mentioned...the next 24 hours is absolutely critical for this system's survival because once it gets to the Eastern Caribbean, the chances drop considerably of anything coming out of this (based on climatology.

[windstorm99]

Folks its way to early to be even begin speculating on its future track with out real significant LLC in place.For now slow development seems reasonable to me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hey Derek you are already calling for the WGOM - I think it is way too early to tell, the GFS wants to take it near Cuba and in or near South Florida...personally I think through the Caribbean into the Western Caribbean or NW Caribbean sounds about right...given climatology.

The 12z GFS no longer really shows that track..in fact, it hardly picks this system up at all. I think it is just really too early to tell. One thing that will be a big factor though is the building ridge to the north. The ridge is expected to build far enough west by early next week that a Florida hit from the east would probably be unlikely (given the low starting latitude of this wave). A more probable path would be through the Caribbean, into the Yucatan channel and then, depending on the ridge placement at that time, either recurving into LA, MS, AL, FL or heading west toward TX or Mexico.

[Derek Ortt]

no, I did not mean the Eastern GOM... I mean the WGOM. This is one that should be steered by the low level easterly flow and should move fairly quickly due to the low level easterly wind surge

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think Derek meant the Eastern Gulf with the storm of whatever intensity crossing over PR, DR and possibly even Cuber.

I think it is still way too early to say with any certainty where this could go, alot will depend on its development and strength. A stronger system is more likely to survive the big Carib. islands whereas a weaker system gets torn asunder.

I kind of doubt it will take a track over all those islands. This waves already low latitude would suggest a track further south.

[wxman57]

I think Derek's call is also factoring-in slow development, which would mean a track towards the GOM, esp. with a ridge building-in.

That's what I'm thinking as well. Slow development, more of a westerly track for a while. Potential threat to southern Gulf next Tuesday. A typical disturbance crossing 50W is about 7 days away from reaching the southern Gulf then another 2-3 days from landfall. This disturbance will cross 50W tonight. Quite a ways off.

[CrazyC83]

I think Derek's call is also factoring-in slow development, which would mean a track towards the GOM, esp. with a ridge building-in.

That's what I'm thinking as well. Slow development, more of a westerly track for a while. Potential threat to southern Gulf next Tuesday. Quite a ways off.

Yeah, the Mexican Gulf or even the Central America coast...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think Derek and wxman57 are right on with their predictions. Probably going to be a slow-to-develop storm that moves generally W or WNW over the next few days. Possible Gulf threat down the road, but really no need to worry at this point since any potential U.S. landfall is well over a week away.

[windstorm99]

I really would not put to much stock on that ridge being there as its being a no show so far this season.Trofs rule so far.

[GeneratorPower]

This is NOT a DRILL.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really would not put to much stock on that ridge being there as its being a no show so far this season.Trofs rule so far.

However, the models have been consistant now at developing it by this weekend. We are not talking about "fantasy land" long-range predictions anymore, instead it is now looking likely that it will build west over the next few days. Our Houston NWS office is even mentioning it and our rain chances have been lowered to 20% next Monday (Thank god!). Truthfully, I actually hope this ridge does build to dry us out some.

[fox13weather]

long range GFS models show a couple of days of ridging before the east coast trough redevelops early next week

[x-y-no]

This is NOT a DRILL.

Heh ...

Is that like "Ceci n'est pas une pipe?"

[Patrick99]

Miami AFD today was hinting at stronger ridging in the coming days (and weeks). Whatever it does it'll probably be a low-runner.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is SAL figured for in SHIPS? Because SHIPS has a strong T.S. in 72 hours.

[drezee]

919
WHXX04 KWBC 301722
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 99L

INITIAL TIME 12Z JUL 30

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.5 45.0 280./ 9.9
6 9.6 45.7 275./ 6.3
12 9.9 47.0 287./13.3
18 10.5 47.9 300./10.6
24 10.9 48.9 292./10.5
30 11.4 50.0 294./11.9
36 11.6 51.0 281./10.6
42 11.8 52.3 283./12.3
48 11.9 53.0 277./ 7.7
54 12.2 54.1 286./11.0
60 12.4 55.2 279./10.9
66 12.6 56.3 279./10.4
72 12.9 57.3 286./10.7
78 13.2 58.4 286./11.3
84 13.6 59.4 293./ 9.8
90 13.9 60.8 284./14.2
96 14.3 62.2 285./14.2
102 14.8 63.7 288./14.9
108 15.1 65.2 283./14.9
114 15.4 66.7 280./15.5
120 16.0 68.2 292./15.7
126 16.2 70.0 275./17.3

[Cyclone1]

So is it TD3?

[wxmann_91]

Is SAL figured for in SHIPS? Because SHIPS has a strong T.S. in 72 hours.

SHIPS forecasts every Invest to become a strong TS.

[Weatherfreak14]

Convection seems to be waning very slightly, but that is usual for this time of day, as it still looks pretty good. On the latest TWC TU mike said their could be a possible LLC somewhere in there.

[miamicanes177]

12Z GFDL at 96 hours