Invest 99L,Near Windwards,Thread #4

[HURAKAN]

99L is back!!!

[tailgater]

I am surpised at low level structure of this system tis morning, First time I seen the surface look this organized it may be elongated, but I would think that a cirulation is forming.

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Broad guesses about the long range track. All models take it on strong west course. No basic problem with this. Flow north of it is setting up strongly E to W with ridge building. Over S Texas there is another High anchored which is producing a N-S flow over the W Gulf (would also keep storm from moving N to US Gulf Coast). If I had to take a STAB IN THE DARK right now, I would think the storm may tend to track a little further north than expected in the W Carib (not too much though) and cross the central Yucutan Penninsula. I think this system has a good shot therefore of getting into the Bay of Campeche. But once there I would think the High over S Tex would keep it down in low lats and heading into the area S of Tampico. Thats my early guess. I won't dignify this guess by calling it a "Berwick Model", cause its not. Berwick Model only comes out with an initialization of Depression coordinates from the NHC. Also, I'll be out of town for a few days, don't know how much computer time I'll get, so I wanted to get this in before hitting the road.

[skysummit]

I'm not about to go through a bunch of pages of nonsense. LOL....are people still saying "it's over", "stick a fork in it", "it's dead", and "poof....next"?

Looking a little better this morning, but still has a ways to go...just another reason why you do NOT write off such systems simply because convection decreases.

[Weatherfreak14]

If you watch the visible loop carefully, I think i see a spin in the last frame. The center looks to be around 56.5W and 12.8N (not exact area of spin but around that area. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Berwick Bay]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Broad guesses about the long range track. All models take it on strong west course. No basic problem with this. Flow north of it is setting up strongly E to W with ridge building. Over S Texas there is another High anchored which is producing a N-S flow over the W Gulf (would also keep storm from moving N to US Gulf Coast). If I had to take a STAB IN THE DARK right now, I would think the storm may tend to track a little further north than expected in the W Carib (not too much though) and cross the central Yucutan Penninsula. I think this system has a good shot therefore of getting into the Bay of Campeche. But once there I would think the High over S Tex would keep it down in low lats and heading into the area S of Tampico. Thats my early guess. I won't dignify this guess by calling it a "Berwick Model", cause its not. Berwick Model only comes out with an initialization of Depression coordinates from the NHC. Also, I'll be out of town for a few days, don't know how much computer time I'll get, so I wanted to get this in before hitting the road.

[DESTRUCTION5]

If you watch the visible loop carefully, I think i see a spin in the last frame. The center looks to be around 56.5W and 12.8N (not exact area of spin but around that area. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I see the early stages of a tropical Cyclone forming right now..

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

99L is back for the attack...
Looking much better this morning...
I smell a developing depression...

[Cyclone1]

It's not on NRL. It'll be back.

[HurricaneRobert]

So it may be headed straight for the Yucatan and maybe the EPac?

[bvigal]

Cyclone1 - it IS back, you have to flush your cache, or close IE.

By the way, anyone know why NHC site not accessing latest recon plan of the day? (still shows Monday) Here's yesterday's, direct from ftp site:
NOUS42 KNHC 311530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 31 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-069

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1800Z A. 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE
C. 01/1530Z C. 02/1000Z
D. 13.0N 57.0W D. 13.5N 61.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2200Z E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1600Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.

We here in the eastern Caribbean knew about the plane arriving. After all, it is a neighborhood, and the coconut telegraph is legendary in its effectiveness! 99L is almost to 59 degrees... and so it goes!

[rockyman]

After all, it is a neighborhood, and the coconut telegraph is legendary in its effectiveness! 99L is almost to 59 degrees... and so it goes!

hehe...we have a coconut telegraph here on Dauphin Island, too...though we don't have any coconuts...just some non-native palm trees

99L is looking much better this morning...the structure on visible is actualy quite impressive...the dry air out in front of the system has modified significantly...let's all be thankful that maybe this won't develop into too much before crossing the southern Windwards

[caribepr]

Hey bvigal! I'll rely on you for the telegraph - it's not like living on STX anymore...where de plane shows up. Here I find out more from sailor friends and they are heading out like lemmings to the sea at the moment, south and a couple going north during the window. The ones staying are beefing up anchors and / or heading for the mangrove holes (which they can still sneak into around here without a lot of hassle).
I'm trying to get over there this month sometime soon

[dixiebreeze]

Dvorak up this morning:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 11.6N 57.0W T1.5/1.5 99L

[HURAKAN]

Observed at: Grantley Adams, BR
Elevation: 184 ft / 56 m
82 °F / 28 °C
Light Showers Rain
Humidity: 79%
Dew Point: 75 °F / 24 °C
Wind: 16 mph / 26 km/h / 7.2 m/s from the ENE
Pressure: 29.92 in / 1013 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 90 °F / 32 °C
Clouds: Few 1000 ft / 304 m
Scattered Clouds 1200 ft / 365 m
Mostly Cloudy 3400 ft / 1036 m
(Above Ground Level)

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cgi-b ... y=barbados

[punkyg]

Dvorak up this morning:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 11.6N 57.0W T1.5/1.5 99L

What does it mean?
did it always say storm?

[Berwick Bay]

Hurricane Robert said
So it may be headed straight for the Yucatan and maybe the EPac?
_____________________________________________________
FWIW's Robert, at this early stage "stab in the dark", I favor a track slightly north of most models. Not central America then EPAC, but instead central Yucutan Penninsula (just north of Belize) then into the Bay of Campeche, but continuing with a strong W component into mainland Mexico (a little south of Tampico). Like I said, this is just a guess at a very early stage that I wanted to get in before leaving for a few days. (Not my Berwick Model, which would be more detailed, and which also requires at least a depression classification.). I posted the disclaimer on my last post.

[skysummit]

Dvorak up this morning:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 11.6N 57.0W T1.5/1.5 99L

What does it mean?
did it always say storm?

CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)


CI -- Current Intensity
MWS -- Mean Wind Speed
MSLP -- Mean Sea Level Atmospheric Pressure in Millibars

[Derek Ortt]

the surface inflow still appears to be quite weak. Cannot tell if an outflow boundary is about to push out or not.

While the convection is better today than the last 2 days... still do notsee signs of a closed LLC. Maybe an MLC. Thing may need to wait until it is in the E Carib before forming into a TC

[Ivanhater]

the surface inflow still appears to be quite weak. Cannot tell if an outflow boundary is about to push out or not.

While the convection is better today than the last 2 days... still do notsee signs of a closed LLC. Maybe an MLC. Thing may need to wait until it is in the E Carib before forming into a TC

I was just looking at that...I can see some inflow coming in from the south pushing on the east side...seems like its trying to close off a low...but I agree I think it will do it once in the eastern carib...