Invest 99L in Eastern Caribbean Thread #5

[Weatherfreak14]

it may try to set up a more organized LLC giving a better chance to be a depression.

[HURAKAN]

I will go to sleep now because tomorrow will be another ball game.

[Blown Away]

The only constant with 99L is the models have not flip flopped at all, which is unusual.

[Normandy]

You know, the more and more I look at this disturbance now the more and more I feel it might not develop anytime soon....Take a look at this pic..



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the area I circled has the lowest pressure and probably had the best chance for a center to form and establish itself there. the current convection really has no relationship with that area and seems to be racing westward with the low level flow....

Now it *could* develop a new LLC, but there is one thing that might stop it from doing so: The fast low level flow (easterly surge) will make it hard for a low to close off, and its forward speed also won't help. I dunno, when I was writing my last post I was being hopeful for the wave but tonight I just don't see much going for it.

[wxman57]

You know, the more and more I look at this disturbance now the more and more I feel it might not develop anytime soon....Take a look at this pic..



Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that the area I circled has the lowest pressure and probably had the best chance for a center to form and establish itself there. the current convection really has no relationship with that area and seems to be racing westward with the low level flow....

Now it *could* develop a new LLC, but there is one thing that might stop it from doing so: The fast low level flow (easterly surge) will make it hard for a low to close off, and its forward speed also won't help. I dunno, when I was writing my last post I was being hopeful for the wave but tonight I just don't see much going for it.

That's the area, Normandy. Well SE of the convection.

[Normandy]

^Thought so.
Honestly tonight there could be some nice convective bursts....but now Im asking myself why would it matter? If they don't occur anywhere near the area I circled we're back to square one (where we were 4 days ago).

[Brent]

Not good... it looks sick again, ugh.

[Normandy]

^Thats an understatement. It least yesterday when it looked sick it had some resemblance of structural organization....tonight it just consists of westward racing convection.

[jasons2k]

I got a *little* excited today with that initial SW wind report and jumped-the-gun thinking this was about to be upgraded.

I'm sticking with my thoughts of the last two days....if it makes it to the central Caribbean then it has potential.

[Weatherfreak14]

I have to admit i dont think it will become much struggling like this, lets see what it will do overnight, it looks convection may start to pop up over the center again soon.

[skysummit]

I have to mention this....

Bob Breck just said the LLC may be trying to form further north under the convection.

LOL.....AND, he also said if it did, it may just re-curve out to sea, and never affect anyone. Boy, does that bring back memories.

[Extremeweatherguy]

recurve out to sea? lol. Well that would sure be something no one expected.

[Normandy]

^that would be the most amazing recurve ever....

Exiting the landlocked carribean sea without affecting a soul. Just curious, what on earth does he think is gonna recurve this?

[Brent]

^that would be the most amazing recurve ever....

Exiting the landlocked carribean sea without affecting a soul. Just curious, what on earth does he think is gonna recurve this?

This is the same Bob Breck who said Katrina wasn't gonna hit New Orleans...

[AnnularCane]

I have to mention this....

Bob Breck just said the LLC may be trying to form further north under the convection.

LOL.....AND, he also said if it did, it may just re-curve out to sea, and never affect anyone. Boy, does that bring back memories.

Never affect anyone? That's going to be quite a feat, given that it's entering the Caribbean now. I'd like to see that!

[Weatherfreak14]

I have to mention this....

Bob Breck just said the LLC may be trying to form further north under the convection.

LOL.....AND, he also said if it did, it may just re-curve out to sea, and never affect anyone. Boy, does that bring back memories.

Never affect anyone? That's going to be quite a feat, given that it's entering the Caribbean now. I'd like to see that!

it would literaly have to stop and turn around.

[astrosbaseball22]

its looks fine to me

[Normandy]

And as far as the LLC reforming under that convection....its a big big longshot....the convection is racing westward with the low level flow and there seems to be no indications of any kind of LLC trying to form there. The LLC would likely form where the lowest pressure is, which is unfavorable because if an LLC formed there land interaction would hamper development (paralelling SA).

Really, I don't see many things going for this wave ATM.

[Derek Ortt]

If Breck said that... it may be time for him to visit an old folks home

[astrosbaseball22]

oo..so you say no TD?