2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[GCANE]

May have a shot.
Will be on the SW side of an ULL.
355K PV is conducive.

[GCANE]

Strong wave for Euro.
CMC has a surface low as well.

[Weather150]

Some GFS ensembles are starting to pick up on the wave expected to leave West Africa mid-next week.

[SoupBone]

Wow, that ridge is parked right where it shouldn’t be...

That’s for sure but nothing out there with this setup thankfully. The GFS shows something similar in its long-range also.

This would be bad if something can manage to get to 60W and stay at or north of 20N out of the Caribbean.

One thing is for sure, we won’t be seeing any Irma-like storms this season tracking across the MDR.

Why's that?

[TheStormExpert]

That’s for sure but nothing out there with this setup thankfully. The GFS shows something similar in its long-range also.

This would be bad if something can manage to get to 60W and stay at or north of 20N out of the Caribbean.

One thing is for sure, we won’t be seeing any Irma-like storms this season tracking across the MDR.

Why's that?

Just look at the state of the Tropical Atlantic today compared to one year ago, complete opposite. Not saying the chances are zero but they’re close to it. Besides Irma came off Africa quite high up in latitude which made it even more impressive.

[GCANE]

GFS runs it along 14N to about 42W
At that point SAL, PV, Shear doesn't look too bad.
May see it go farther on later runs today.

[Dean4Storms]

Anybody with a take on the cluster of convection this afternoon and into this evening North of Puerto Rico? Have not looked into it any further than noticing the strong convective blow up.

[chaser1]

Anybody with a take on the cluster of convection this afternoon and into this evening North of Puerto Rico? Have not looked into it any further than noticing the strong convective blow up.

Area of low pressure from 500mb down to about 850mb that seems to be getting flared up as a result of strong northerly upper level flow. Probably a flash in the pan but in all fairness, the upper level conditions near and over that particular spot are actually fairly divergent and the sharp upper level trough to its west is forecast to soon cut off to it's southwest near Hispaniola. Regardless, I don't think there's enough meat on the bone with this to be able to sit and convectively stew for more then a day or two especially given the relative high surface pressures overall.

[Dean4Storms]

Anybody with a take on the cluster of convection this afternoon and into this evening North of Puerto Rico? Have not looked into it any further than noticing the strong convective blow up.

Area of low pressure from 500mb down to about 850mb that seems to be getting flared up as a result of strong northerly upper level flow. Probably a flash in the pan but in all fairness, the upper level conditions near and over that particular spot are actually fairly divergent and the sharp upper level trough to its west is forecast to soon cut off to it's southwest near Hispaniola. Regardless, I don't think there's enough meat on the bone with this to be able to sit and convectively stew for more then a day or two especially given the relative high surface pressures overall.

Convection still firing this morning and no model support at all but I remember some models missing genesis on a small little system about a month ago way out in the MDR. Like you said, needs convection to continue.

[cycloneye]

Crickets in Atlantic.

@MJVentrice
We are looking way out in fantasyland (hour 360) on the ECMWF EPS for tropical cyclone threats... Talk about crickets. Usually there is at least some noise this far out.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1023212154831466496

[Alyono]

the very long range ensemble data shows a high chance of development east of the islands in the middle to latter parts of September

oops. I mean middle to latter part of August

[Hammy]

the very long range ensemble data shows a high chance of development east of the islands in the middle to latter parts of September

oops. I mean middle to latter part of August

That seems consistent with what the CFS has been showing as well, the switch turning on around the middle of the month.

[djones65]

Regardless of any extremely long range models... the same conclusion can be drawn just by climatology.
Obviously, the tropics ALWAYS, even in inactive seasons, respond by late August and September....

I am just saying...

[AJC3]

Perhaps something modestly interesting for the subtropical Atlantic late next week...

Globals show a mid-Atlantic 500mb trough splitting around 40-45W, a piece of which cuts off into a low THU-FRI. The low then gets caught underneath a strong 500MB ridge and sent westward along 28-30N toward the west central Atlantic. Assuming the models are correct, a baroclinic inverted surface trough on its E-SE flank could conceivably try to transition from a baroclinic to some sort of weak BE hybrid low, STC, or, as a long shot, a TC. The GFS gets this pretty close to Bermuda before weakening it, while the ECM slows it down and turns it northward much farther east.

With "Slim Pickens" out there for the next week and change, there's little else to write home about.

[floridasun78]

it look to me we wont seer any thing untill aug 15 to 29 models not picking any thing big next few weeks look EL Niño have Atlantic by neck and Africa duct that affecting whole Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean don't leave any time soon

[Hurricaneman]

it look to me we wont seer any thing untill aug 15 to 29 models not picking any thing big next few weeks look EL Niño have Atlantic by neck and Africa duct that affecting whole Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean don't leave any time soon

Has nothing to do with El Niño but with higher pressures in the Atlantic MDR and SAL which would kill or stifle convection which until one or the other changes or both there will be no development in the deep tropics

[AutoPenalti]

Shear has decreased as it should be by this time of the year and Instability has increased but still remains well below the norm along with surface pressures remaining fairly high. They should start responding by mid-August.

I mean we didn’t get Franklin until I believe the 6 of August? And then Harvey by the 17th? Not saying this will be a repeat of last year but usually activity doesn’t pick up till that part of the season.

[GCANE]

Perhaps something modestly interesting for the subtropical Atlantic late next week...

Globals show a mid-Atlantic 500mb trough splitting around 40-45W, a piece of which cuts off into a low THU-FRI. The low then gets caught underneath a strong 500MB ridge and sent westward along 28-30N toward the west central Atlantic. Assuming the models are correct, a baroclinic inverted surface trough on its E-SE flank could conceivably try to transition from a baroclinic to some sort of weak BE hybrid low, STC, or, as a long shot, a TC. The GFS gets this pretty close to Bermuda before weakening it, while the ECM slows it down and turns it northward much farther east.

With "Slim Pickens" out there for the next week and change, there's little else to write home about.

GFS is pushing it into the Bahamas this time next week

[GCANE]

Maybe on to something

[srainhoutx]

Over the past several cycles of the GEFS, an area of lowering pressure as been indicated across the Bay of Campeche and the Western Gulf around August 9th through August 12th. Individual ensemble members seem to be "sniffing" the potential of a weak surface low organizing in the Bay of Campeche moving N toward the Texas Coast. While it is far too soon to know with any certainty that anything will form, there is a wet phase of the MJO overhead with a rather vigorous CCKW crossing the Western Atlantic during that timeframe. It's getting to that time of year climatology speaking when attention even during a quiet Hurricane Season, we should monitor our backyard for any tropical mischief that may spin up. Tis that time of year!