Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[KWT]

I agree with MGC that the moisture from Td 1E will be shunted westwards however there is still a reasonable chance that even if it doesn't get intothe SW Caribbean its going to have a little bit of time over the BOC and that region can develop some very rapid systems.

In the end we are just going to have to watch to see if any remains make it across central America and the exact track that tropical depression takes...its still worthy of us watching just in case.

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa morning AFD discission:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 290640
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...SO FAR THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SCENARIO FOR THE LONG TERM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE MODELS. GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THEN CROSSING IT INTO THE EXTREME
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AROUND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS
WELL KNOWN FOR ITS TENDENCY TO OVER-EMPHASIZE CYCLOGENESIS THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FEATURE ALTHOUGH ECMWF SEEMS TO ALSO SHOW
SOME SORT OF DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN
THAT THIS SCENARIO IS AT LEAST A WEEK AWAY...WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
ANY POTENTIAL EFFECTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OUT OF THE
FORECAST. A CLEARER PICTURE OF WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY HAPPEN WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE
WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...NP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...AR

[ronjon]

GFS not giving up on western caribbean cyclogenesis - just a slower development. Seems to be focusing now on development starting in about 5 days. Could be a drought buster and rainy season starter for FL if it pans out. I notice now that the GFS has a very similar solution to NOGAPs, although there are some timing differences.

[Evil Jeremy]

Man, the GFS just doesn't want to give up! I suppose it does deserve some attention. There is another tropical wave on the way, and convection is on the increase in the SW Caribbean again this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[NDG]

As long as the euro keeps low pressures (below 1005 mb) in the NW Caribbean/southern GOM in the 5-10 day range, I am still giving some credibility to the GFS runs for next week.
The euro is now coming out with that the ridge in the south central US is going to be breaking down by a diving trough next week, so the remnants or any low trying to form or reform in the NW Caribbean or BOC will most likely start drifting north or NE by then.

[KWT]

Yep once again models trying to develop another system in the SW Caribbean, it does appear that whilst TD 1E will plow into central America the region of higher moisture will remain for a little while and so if convection keeps bursting down there then eventually something is likely to come together on this side of CA.

[Frank2]

Good morning everyone,

As the Tampa NWS forecaster said:

...GFS IS WELL KNOWN FOR ITS TENDENCY TO OVER-EMPHASIZE CYCLOGENESIS THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

life's too short to let the GFS get us in a spin (a hurricane spin, that is)...

Frank

[physicx07]

I rather like being on the edge of my seat!

But yeah, I have a hard time taking GFS spinups too seriously, especially so early in the season. What are the SSTs out there?

[KWT]

I suspect the GFS is forming something on the tropical wave that is presently working its way westward in the central Caribbean. I suppose its still worth watching even if nothing comes of it

[Frank2]

physicx07,

I copied a link from the "Water Temps?" topic:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

you're up as early as I was this morning!

[cycloneye]

I rather like being on the edge of my seat!

But yeah, I have a hard time taking GFS spinups too seriously, especially so early in the season. What are the SSTs out there?

Here you have all of what you want to know about how the waters are in the Caribbean.They are warming in a fairly good clip.







http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/ca.html

[Frank2]

KWT,

Perhaps, though I had to chuckle when reading what the NWS forecaster posted - the GFS is "well known"...

It is over-dramatic, that is true...

Have a good day over there,

Frank

[NDG]

Pretty good vorticity, low surface pressure and not too bad UL conditions for early to mid next week forecasted by the euro.

[KWT]

Certainly is over-dramatic at times Frank and then sometimes doesn't even know there is a tropical cyclone out there!

Its real hard to know whether anything will come out the mass of Voricity down there at the moment, we do appear to have Alma so in some respect the models were right in developing something BUT just couldn't decide on where to place the main vortex, looks like the UKMO wins out this time on that system.

[physicx07]

physicx07,

I copied a link from the "Water Temps?" topic:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

you're up as early as I was this morning!

Thanks Frank! You know actually I thought I was responding to something on the E Atl/W Africa thread when I asked about the water temps. The water in the Caribbean is plenty warm for Alma should she decide to redevelop there.

Oh, I work night shift. Actually I hardly sleep anyway!

[Frank2]

KWT,

Yes, it looks that way, for certain! We'll see if anything forms on the Caribbean side, but, as of now, mostly disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Actually, it appears that the weather on the Caribbean side is the outflow of 1E, more than anything...

&

physicx07,

You're welcome - many years ago I worked nights at the NHC, so, know how that felt (ugh)...

The water temps are warm but not too warm (it's early) - we'll see how it develops (or doesn't) today and tonight...

Wow, KWT is in Great Britian, and, physicx07 is in California, so, we are having an 8,000 mile conversation - that's a lot of string...

LOL

[Aric Dunn]

here is the big picture.... no matter anyone thinks about "no chance" there is one underlying fact! we have although disorganized! we have a substantial amount of convection in the entire western carribean that will continue for many days has it will be enhanced partly due to alma and the upper environment. with that said the nogaps, gfs , and possibly more hint at continued development because when ever there is a large amount of convection persisting the chances of something organizing increase. so no i dont think its going to be tomorrow or even maybe the following day but once alma's circulation begins to weaken and gets torn up by the high mountains anything can happen after that ..

[KWT]

I certainly think we still need to watch this area, whilst Alma for now has become the totally dominant circulation in the region once it weakens we will go back to having a broad area of circulation where possibly something could develop, it still needs to be watched.

[Vortex]

gotta love the 12z GFS...

[Aric Dunn]

gotta love the 12z GFS...

lol yeah ..

according to the 12z we should have a system in the NW carribean ,.... in 24hrs