2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MarioProtVI]

12z CMC again has the MDR system but a bit further up in time now near 192h… might be onto something

[DorkyMcDorkface]

12z CMC again has the MDR system but a bit further up in time now near 192h… might be onto something

Yeah it's there again, along with that additional wave.

There's also a little Gulf spinner that heads towards Texas earlier on in the run.

[Jr0d]

This morning's run of the GFS is showing back to back hurricanes 348 hours out, one developing in the GoM approaching S. Texas heading West to wnw the other developing in the Caribbean heading WNW NW apparently zeroing in on Cuba and getting close to S. Florida.b

The good news is it is extremely unlikely the model is

.....and poof they are gone!

[Bigtenfan]

12z CMC again has the MDR system but a bit further up in time now near 192h… might be onto something

Yeah it's there again, along with that additional wave.
https://i.ibb.co/nctp9gq/gem-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh120-240.gif
There's also a little Gulf spinner that heads towards Texas earlier on in the run.
https://i.ibb.co/rZgN4mm/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh54-168.gif

While the CMC may be on to something I would wait for more model support before taking it too literally.

[TomballEd]

I think the gulf low should get a lemon soon, the CMC wraps up s circulation right near landfall near corpus, GFS nothing this run, but the ICON has an inverted trough axis, definitely worth at least giving a 0/20 by the NHC

The inverted trough is on multiple models and less than a week away. If nothing changes, low end TS is as best as I'd expect. But Humberto also formed from not purely tropical sources and went TD to an hurricane in a day.

[MarioProtVI]

12z CMC again has the MDR system but a bit further up in time now near 192h… might be onto something

Yeah it's there again, along with that additional wave.
https://i.ibb.co/nctp9gq/gem-mslp-pcpn-eatl-fh120-240.gif
There's also a little Gulf spinner that heads towards Texas earlier on in the run.
https://i.ibb.co/rZgN4mm/gem-z850-vort-watl-fh54-168.gif

While the CMC may be on to something I would wait for more model support before taking it too literally.

The EURO-AI and occasionally the ICON have a similar feature around this area near the same timeframe or a bit later so it has some support but not much.

[jlauderdal]

After posting that I realized I haven't donated in way too long... hopefully there will be more who want to take the bet.

It does look like the Ensembles are heating up for early September so I would be surprised if I am wrong.. time will tell.

If I lose I still win because it means I have no iminent threat besides.

Anymore?

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro has no TC. But per last 13 Euro AIFS runs fwiw the crucial period for TCG may be centered around Sep 2nd, just beyond the 12Z Euro 240.

[Stratton23]

Conditions look to be a little more conducive in the gulf for that tropical wave near the bahamas which is what some models are showing trying to develop, so it definitely is worth watching despite ensembles not showing much, light upper anti cylconic flow could help to get convection going for the wave, wind shear is neutral- light in the western gulf, worth watching even though the tropical wave is anemic right now, but could be like an Imelda type of situation with a closed low forming as it gets closer to the coast, i expect a lemon might be issued for this later this evening

[IcyTundra]

I think the gulf low should get a lemon soon, the CMC wraps up s circulation right near landfall near corpus, GFS nothing this run, but the ICON has an inverted trough axis, definitely worth at least giving a 0/20 by the NHC

The inverted trough is on multiple models and less than a week away. If nothing changes, low end TS is as best as I'd expect. But Humberto also formed from not purely tropical sources and went TD to an hurricane in a day.

Maybe something similar to Harold from last year. Made landfall as a 50 kt TS.

[Teban54]

I think the gulf low should get a lemon soon, the CMC wraps up s circulation right near landfall near corpus, GFS nothing this run, but the ICON has an inverted trough axis, definitely worth at least giving a 0/20 by the NHC

The inverted trough is on multiple models and less than a week away. If nothing changes, low end TS is as best as I'd expect. But Humberto also formed from not purely tropical sources and went TD to an hurricane in a day.

https://i.ibb.co/VB718GJ/hurricane-HAROLD-2023.png

Maybe something similar to Harold from last year. Made landfall as a 50 kt TS.

Harold was exactly the analog I had in mind. While most models show the disturbance too far north to really consolidate into a TC (e.g. 12z GFS has the vorticity tightening up inland Louisiana and NE Texas), a slight change in synoptics may get it enough time to become a short-lived TS. A hurricane looks unlikely at the moment, but at least it will boost the NS count that many people are concerned about.

[kevin]

12z Euro ensemble shows 3 distinct clusters with potential, 2 in the MDR and one in the WCar (all in the +200 to +240 hr range). It has moved up in the timeframe over the last day, so it'll interesting to see whether this will continue over the coming days.



Edit: That was yesterday's 12z. Here is today's version.

[kevin]

12z mesoscale models are showing some kind of organization in the Gulf over the next 3 - 5 days. Unsure whether it'll actually amount to anything, but interesting to keep in mind.

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ensemble shows 3 distinct clusters with potential, 2 in the MDR and one in the WCar (all in the +200 to +240 hr range). It has moved up in the timeframe over the last day, so it'll interesting to see whether this will continue over the coming days.

https://i.imgur.com/bd0zgjt.png

That was yesterday's 12z run.

[Stratton23]

Teban54 yup, but even a weak TS presents its own problems, as steering could become a little more weak once this disturbance moves in land , notice how the ICON has pretty slow movement of the low once its inland, CMC develops into a weak TS, and slows down once inland before eventually moving out, interaction with a frontal boundary could really help to squeeze out a lot of moisture over texas

[kevin]

12z Euro ensemble shows 3 distinct clusters with potential, 2 in the MDR and one in the WCar (all in the +200 to +240 hr range). It has moved up in the timeframe over the last day, so it'll interesting to see whether this will continue over the coming days.

https://i.imgur.com/bd0zgjt.png

That was yesterday's 12z run.

Haha I blame my current lack of sleep. Thanks for the correction, I'll update the 12z run when it's available. Let's see if it still fits my story then .

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

12z Euro ensemble shows 3 distinct clusters with potential, 2 in the MDR and one in the WCar (all in the +200 to +240 hr range). It has moved up in the timeframe over the last day, so it'll interesting to see whether this will continue over the coming days.

https://i.imgur.com/bd0zgjt.png

There are always some phantom storms at the 240+ range. I'm not seeing a strong or consistent signal there.

[Hammy]

12z Euro ensemble shows 3 distinct clusters with potential, 2 in the MDR and one in the WCar (all in the +200 to +240 hr range). It has moved up in the timeframe over the last day, so it'll interesting to see whether this will continue over the coming days.

https://i.imgur.com/bd0zgjt.png

There are always some phantom storms at the 240+ range. I'm not seeing a strong or consistent signal there.

The CFS has been consistent for weeks that Aug 28-Sep 2 would be the switch flip, Canadian model (which has consistently been the best one over the last several years at sniffing out these monsoon breakdown storms) is showing multiple storms as we get to within a week, and the AIRS (keep in mind this is a very low-resolution model as far as the public version) has been consistent for three straight days worth of model runs now, as far as showing genesis beginning on September 1 with the wave starting to pinch off.

There's clearly a signal there and aside from the GFS (which has a poor history at showing genesis more than 120 hours out) and the Euro (which is always painfully inconsistent until you have an actual active disturbance to work with) are the outliers, but everything is still lining up for August 31, give or take a few days in either direction

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Today's 12z EPS:

[MarioProtVI]

If I’m being honest, the only model I have much trust in right now is the AI-EURO. Mainly because it’s gotten every storm this season (was a bit slow with Debby but caught on) and caught on 10-14 days out. There’s not been a strong long-range signal yet this season and it seems the rest of the models are having difficulty as well this season. Maybe the recent 12z EURO is a sign it’s beginning to detect what the AI EURO has been constantly showing, but at this point I don’t have much faith cause for all I know the 00z run is likely going to be weaker again.