2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Aug 20th “ring the bell” date looks pretty rough across the Atlantic for tropical development if the GFS is correct:

https://i.postimg.cc/vHxzzTQR/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

P.S. Things were more interesting before the model upgrades where we could at least talk about some phantoms. Now it seems the models may have the opposite issue

I'll take the phantom storms at this point. The global models have been pure garbage this year so I wouldn't put too much stock into a shear forecast nine days out. Hopefully conditions improve otherwise the forecasts for a "Extremely Active Season" could be in jeopardy.

The mjo is a very slow moving wave which is currently still in the e-pac and shearing the Atlantic that will continue for the next next 5-7 days Possibly till months end. These season cancel posts are really starting to be “ extra” in this thread. The storms are coming patience

[TheStormExpert]

Aug 20th “ring the bell” date looks pretty rough across the Atlantic for tropical development if the GFS is correct:

https://i.postimg.cc/vHxzzTQR/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

P.S. Things were more interesting before the model upgrades where we could at least talk about some phantoms. Now it seems the models may have the opposite issue

I'll take the phantom storms at this point. The global models have been pure garbage this year so I wouldn't put too much stock into a shear forecast nine days out. Hopefully conditions improve otherwise the forecasts for a "Extremely Active Season" could be in jeopardy.

The mjo is a very slow moving wave which is currently still in the e-pac and shearing the Atlantic that will continue for the next next 5-7 days Possibly till months end. These season cancel posts are really starting to be “ extra” in this thread. The storms are coming patience

https://iili.io/dVPPJ1.gif

Well the timeframe seems to be getting pushed back. Not saying the lid won't come off, but the East Pacific deciding to finally ignite after a VERY quiet start definitely caught me off guard.

[toad strangler]

Aug 20th “ring the bell” date looks pretty rough across the Atlantic for tropical development if the GFS is correct:

https://i.postimg.cc/vHxzzTQR/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

P.S. Things were more interesting before the model upgrades where we could at least talk about some phantoms. Now it seems the models may have the opposite issue

I'll take the phantom storms at this point. The global models have been pure garbage this year so I wouldn't put too much stock into a shear forecast nine days out. Hopefully conditions improve otherwise the forecasts for a "Extremely Active Season" could be in jeopardy.

The mjo is a very slow moving wave which is currently still in the e-pac and shearing the Atlantic that will continue for the next next 5-7 days Possibly till months end. These season cancel posts are really starting to be “ extra” in this thread. The storms are coming patience

https://iili.io/dVPPJ1.gif

It looks like the Euro and GFS have an agreement on the endgame for 95L. It's all about whether or not it becomes Josephine before said endgame happens.

[Steve]

Aug 20th “ring the bell” date looks pretty rough across the Atlantic for tropical development if the GFS is correct:

https://i.postimg.cc/vHxzzTQR/gfs-shear-atl-36.png

P.S. Things were more interesting before the model upgrades where we could at least talk about some phantoms. Now it seems the models may have the opposite issue

I'll take the phantom storms at this point. The global models have been pure garbage this year so I wouldn't put too much stock into a shear forecast nine days out. Hopefully conditions improve otherwise the forecasts for a "Extremely Active Season" could be in jeopardy.

Maybe it’s just me, but that’s kind of "off".

[Steve]

Phase 6 MJO heading toward 7 by Thursday and 8 by Friday. You can see the pulse moving eastward with time. And yes, it's less concentrated again tonight in the EPAC than it has been the last several days as it tampers down a hair on that solution. Assumption is that the 00z GFS will show slightly weaker EPAC systems than it did the last couple days. It still might crank out a strong hurricane or two, but its recent runs haven't been putting out mega-storms.
http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

While we could certainly get a couple classified systems in the near-term, except for something stalled out in the middle of the Atlantic, don't expect to see anything extreme in the Western Atlantic for at least several days.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS is showing around hr 300 3 possible systems

1. Forms south of Cuba
2. Forms near Florida
3. Forms in the eastern Bahamas

What this tells us is that between the 20th sand 25th the lid is going to come off but of course only if the GFS is right which will change many times between now and then

[eastcoastFL]

The 0zGFS is showing around hr 300 3 possible systems

1. Forms south of Cuba
2. Forms near Florida
3. Forms in the eastern Bahamas

What this tells us is that between the 20th sand 25th the lid is going to come off but of course only if the GFS is right which will change many times between now and then

The gfs storm hits Florida as 999mb and then sits over Florida for 3 days and strengthens while doing so...

[lsuhurricane]

Evidence of the season going bonkers is certainly present on the Euro Ensembles from last night. Beyond 280 hrs (yeah, I know lala-land) the Gulf of Mexico is completed covered in low pressure systems ranging from TS to major hurricane.

[aspen]

12z GFS shows a disturbance moving off of the US East Coast in a few days and coalescing into a STC in 5-6 days in the middle of the Atlantic, where it meanders for some time. The GFS has been on and off with this developing, showing everything from no system at all to a 961 mbar major hurricane over the last several days.

[Jr0d]

12z GFS shows a disturbance moving off of the US East Coast in a few days and coalescing into a STC in 5-6 days in the middle of the Atlantic, where it meanders for some time. The GFS has been on and off with this developing, showing everything from no system at all to a 961 mbar major hurricane over the last several days.

There is already some spin in the storms off the Carolina's. This maybe the next area to watch

[Steve]

The 12z's are rolling in. NCEP's 8/12 MJO models are all heading for Phase 8 this week and generally toward Phase 1. GFS still develops a mid-latitude system in several days but otherwise still focuses most of the energy down in the EPAC through 288 hours (8/24 00z).

ICON also has a mid-latitude system but moves it out toward Ireland and forms another east of the MA Cape while still showing some semi-organized lows traveling off Africa.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 212&fh=180

[tolakram]

We're going to have to start actively trimming the garbage posts in here if this keeps up. We really don't like to overly moderate, but this is ridiculous.

If you (anyone) finds themselves commenting because conditions haven't changed in the past 3 days DON'T COMMENT! If you feel the need to correct someone who noticed things haven't changed in the last 3 days DON'T COMMENT.

PLEASE

This thread is useless if it's filled with the same hyperactive fidgeting as every other thread on here.

[Ivanhater]

12Z Gfs still showing a CAG/ low pressure in the western Caribbean and Gulf by late August.

Remember the gfs did great with Cristobal in this type of setup. It had different specifics but the overall idea came to fruition.

I'm still betting we get something out of this by the end of August and it may be a strong system.

[psyclone]

12Z Gfs still showing a CAG/ low pressure in the western Caribbean and Gulf by late August.

Remember the gfs did great with Cristobal in this type of setup. It had different specifics but the overall idea came to fruition.

I'm still betting we get something out of this by the end of August and it may be a strong system.

What's odd here is we're very much out of season for a CAG like system and the GFS has a history of false positives in this realm. Having said that...tis the season for close in rapid development. One lesson of some of our massive systems is they weren't much to look at 3 days in advance...Michael 2018 being the most recent example. Certainly worth monitoring. Late August means looking everywhere.

[gatorcane]

If all we are seeing from the GFS out through Aug 27th is a CAG over Central America at 300+ hours we are doing pretty well. The model seems reluctant to show any favorable conditions once you cross over the mountains of Central America into the Caribbean. I don’t normally post model images this far out but since there is nothing else of interest in the entire 14 day model run, why not?

[Ivanhater]

I'm actually more concerned the gfs isn't showing cape verde systems but western based development. Lowering of pressure in the western Caribbean/Gulf as we head into a primed basin is never good and indeed more worrisome.

[aspen]

12z Euro has a tropical wave move off the coast of Africa in 4 days, and develops a weak TC in the MDR in 144 hours. Let’s see if any other models start showing this, or it goes poor at 00z.

[mcheer23]

12z Euro has a tropical wave move off the coast of Africa in 4 days, and develops a weak TC in the MDR in 144 hours. Let’s see if any other models start showing this, or it goes poor at 00z.

Euro Ensembles picked it up..... saw some nasty solutions although they were 300+ hours out

[SFLcane]

12z Euro has a tropical wave move off the coast of Africa in 4 days, and develops a weak TC in the MDR in 144 hours. Let’s see if any other models start showing this, or it goes poor at 00z.

Euro Ensembles picked it up..... saw some nasty solutions although they were 300+ hours out

Bunch into FL and GOM. That wave coming off this weekend is one to watch.

[SFLcane]

Hmm...