2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ivanhater]

Those euro ensembles back up my assumptions on the long range gfs. Low pressure in the western Caribbean and Gulf.

[mitchell]

Interesting 18z GFS wants to take this weekend's east coast low out south of Nova Scotia and then send it south and eventually southwestward towards Bermuda. Tropical characteristics?

[EquusStorm]

Looking like pretty consistent indication of that system over multiple runs of multiple global models, sitting over anomalously warm mid-latitude waters; could be some interesting subtropical action to watch until the MDR comes alive

[EquusStorm]

Long range GFS very onboard now with the subtropical-looking development near Bermuda, doing a little loop and deepening to <990 on its way out, while keeping future Josephine's remnants trackable looping toward the east coast as a wave. And looks like it's showing some decent tropical waves marching toward the Gulf... just in time for the MJO turnover

[aspen]

Long range GFS very onboard now with the subtropical-looking development near Bermuda, doing a little loop and deepening to <990 on its way out, while keeping future Josephine's remnants trackable looping toward the east coast as a wave. And looks like it's showing some decent tropical waves marching toward the Gulf... just in time for the MJO turnover

The subtropical system could be a decent ACE generator like Leslie, although not nearly as long-lasting. Depends on how far south it tracks into ~29 C waters close to Bermuda. The further S/SW it goes, the longer it’ll be around, and the stronger it’ll get; one of the furthest SW solutions from the GFS got this to a 961 mbar Cat 3.

[Ivanhater]

While still no "model cane", the 18z Gfs is still showing us signals of a primed up western Caribbean and Gulf by the end of the month with suspicious waves moving in.

I think.we will start to see storms popping on furture runs as we get closer and an actual system there before September.

All just my opinion of course.

[StPeteMike]

300 hrs out pretty much puts us at the beginning of the peak season, I’ll start buying the models more heading into the 3rd week of the month for sure.

[MetroMike]

Long range GFS very onboard now with the subtropical-looking development near Bermuda, doing a little loop and deepening to <990 on its way out, while keeping future Josephine's remnants trackable looping toward the east coast as a wave. And looks like it's showing some decent tropical waves marching toward the Gulf... just in time for the MJO turnover

The subtropical system could be a decent ACE generator like Leslie, although not nearly as long-lasting. Depends on how far south it tracks into ~29 C waters close to Bermuda. The further S/SW it goes, the longer it’ll be around, and the stronger it’ll get; one of the furthest SW solutions from the GFS got this to a 961 mbar Cat 3.

Do classified subtropical systems accumulate ACE points? Seems to me I have heard otherwise this season.

[cheezyWXguy]

Gfs seems to have backed off quite a bit on the cat4 monster in the epac. May be a sign that it’s backing off on its bias toward the epac and is shifting to the Atlantic

[EquusStorm]

Long range GFS very onboard now with the subtropical-looking development near Bermuda, doing a little loop and deepening to <990 on its way out, while keeping future Josephine's remnants trackable looping toward the east coast as a wave. And looks like it's showing some decent tropical waves marching toward the Gulf... just in time for the MJO turnover

The subtropical system could be a decent ACE generator like Leslie, although not nearly as long-lasting. Depends on how far south it tracks into ~29 C waters close to Bermuda. The further S/SW it goes, the longer it’ll be around, and the stronger it’ll get; one of the furthest SW solutions from the GFS got this to a 961 mbar Cat 3.

Do classified subtropical systems accumulate ACE points? Seems to me I have heard otherwise this season.

In the past, they did not, but I believe that was changed in 2012 and they now count, for better or worse

[aspen]

The subtropical system could be a decent ACE generator like Leslie, although not nearly as long-lasting. Depends on how far south it tracks into ~29 C waters close to Bermuda. The further S/SW it goes, the longer it’ll be around, and the stronger it’ll get; one of the furthest SW solutions from the GFS got this to a 961 mbar Cat 3.

Do classified subtropical systems accumulate ACE points? Seems to me I have heard otherwise this season.

In the past, they did not, but I believe that was changed in 2012 and they now count, for better or worse

And if it’s going to sit around in the Atlantic for that long, odds are it’ll eventually become a fully-fledged tropical cyclone. Some of the GFS runs get to to at least moderate to strong TS intensity.

[Ivanhater]

00z Gfs insistent on a CAG system the last week of August

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[cheezyWXguy]

00z Gfs insistent on a CAG system the last week of August https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200813/315eadcce97a994850ebc3056622c2a4.jpg

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I looked at the 850mb vorticity on this run and it looks like the area initially forms in the epac and gets dragged over Mexico into the BOC. The last CAG storm it showed vanished so I’m skeptical on this one, but I guess we’ll see. Other interesting things to note in this run are an area of vorticity it brings over the greater Antilles and another that traverses the MDR later in the period, though none of these get very strong. Still, am thinking these could be the first signs of the gfs latching onto increased Atlantic activity in the coming weeks

[EquusStorm]

Our big ol subtropi-cane is vanished on the 0z run, the GFS says no fun allowed

CMC still likes it, but, y'know, CMC likes everything

[AxaltaRacing24]

Our big ol subtropi-cane is vanished on the 0z run, the GFS says no fun allowed

2020 modeling usually doesn't show an atlantic storm developing until it actually does.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS says very little to September 1... In future runs if any Cape Verde storms start appearing after Sept 1 would take a few weeks to cross the pond... In the past it seems the global models struggle picking up that on/off switch that usually occurs @August 20th... We shall see, big time activity predicted to happen over next @60 days...

[SFLcane]

Wow here is your reason why the GFS is so quite!

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1293915629867528198

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is saying there’s an El Niño out there with its output, as they say garbage in garbage out, the Euro ensembles are showing an uptick between the 20th and 25th so the Euro seems to have the correct pattern With a more La Niña like one as opposed to the new joke called the GFS

[SFLcane]

For all those hugging the GFS long-range. Wish i could pin this.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1293892502093791232

[gatorcane]

The GFS is saying there’s an El Niño out there with its output, as they say garbage in garbage out, the Euro ensembles are showing an uptick between the 20th and 25th so the Euro seems to have the correct pattern With a more La Niña like one as opposed to the new joke called the GFS

I would say the model accurately predicted the uptick in EPAC activity well in advance in the long-range and so far has been forecasting the shear reasonably well out through the mid to long range across the Atlantic MDR. It was a little off with Josephine but let’s face it the storm is weak and sheared anyway so nothing to be concerned with.