2024 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)

[skyline385]

This season will kick off soon, hoping people are not falling for a false sense of security just because it's mid-June.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1801796410427273232

[NDG]

I can't believe this was said this early on in the season and all people behind his post, lol.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1801757822507528289

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I can't believe this was said this early on in the season and all people behind his post, lol.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1801757822507528289

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Pretty sure the latter part was was sarcasm given it was in reply to Andy Hazelton making a 2013 joke...

[NDG]

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Pretty sure the latter part was was sarcasm given it was in reply to Andy Hazelton making a 2013 joke...

Yeah, it looks like it was just sarcasm based on his previous posts of being completely the opposite. Either that or his X account was compromised

[NotSparta]

I can't believe this was said this early on in the season and all people behind his post, lol.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1801757822507528289

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Yeah that was a joke lol this looks like a hyperactive season still just seems like the MDR is closed for business for a little while longer. Just couldn't resist making a 2013 joke

In general, if you see anyone worth their salt bringing up 2013 before mid August you can generally assume they're joking

[chaser1]

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Yeah that was a joke lol this looks like a hyperactive season still just seems like the MDR is closed for business for a little while longer. Just couldn't resist making a 2013 joke

Okay, that was seriously good stuff I must have read that statement by Alex like five times. It was SO senseless and off the mark that I didn't know where to possibly even begin LOL.

[skyline385]

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Pretty sure the latter part was was sarcasm given it was in reply to Andy Hazelton making a 2013 joke...

Yeah, it looks like it was just sarcasm based on his previous posts of being completely the opposite. Either that or his X account was compromised

Yea I have seen this meme posted a few times by Webb and others in previous years too (I got it saved in my folder too lol), if you see it then it is definitely a joke

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1801764060658082263

[HurricaneRyan]

This season will kick off soon, hoping people are not falling for a false sense of security just because it's mid-June.

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1801796410427273232

Yeah. Agreed. 2005 had a couple quiet weeks in June between Arlene and Bret. We all know what happened from July onward.

[jlauderdal]

Pretty sure the latter part was was sarcasm given it was in reply to Andy Hazelton making a 2013 joke...

Yeah, it looks like it was just sarcasm based on his previous posts of being completely the opposite. Either that or his X account was compromised

Yea I have seen this meme posted a few times by Webb and others in previous years too (I got it saved in my folder too lol), if you see it then it is definitely a joke

 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1801764060658082263

15 days into the season, it was a joke. We have already had a big tropical event south of lake o this season so we +1 vs last year on activity.

[WiscoWx02]

I can't believe this was said this early on in the season and all people behind his post, lol.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1801757822507528289

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I’ll be honest, I don’t view June MDR activity as an indicator of things to come. I always hears that June/early July MDR activity = hyperactivity/crazy and “bad” season ahead. The last few years have sort of put that argument to bed though minus 2017.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Yeah that was a joke lol this looks like a hyperactive season still just seems like the MDR is closed for business for a little while longer. Just couldn't resist making a 2013 joke

Okay, that was seriously good stuff I must have read that statement by Alex like five times. It was SO senseless and off the mark that I didn't know where to possibly even begin LOL.

Fun fact: 2013 already had 2 named storms by now. So....2013 is already a bad analog year, jut not in the way you're probably thinking of....well, yet.

[NotSparta]

I can't believe this was said this early on in the season and all people behind his post, lol.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1801757822507528289

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I’ll be honest, I don’t view June MDR activity as an indicator of things to come. I always hears that June/early July MDR activity = hyperactivity/crazy and “bad” season ahead. The last few years have sort of put that argument to bed though minus 2017.

You should, the MDR is highly unfavorable in June and if you can get a TC there then despite climo it's a big red flag conditions will be very favorable in ASO which implies a more active season. Worth noting that the MDR failed to get any TCs until September in 2022 as well

[WeatherBoy2000]

I can't believe this was said this early on in the season and all people behind his post, lol.

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1801757822507528289

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I’ll be honest, I don’t view June MDR activity as an indicator of things to come. I always hears that June/early July MDR activity = hyperactivity/crazy and “bad” season ahead. The last few years have sort of put that argument to bed though minus 2017.

Well Klotzbach has said in the past that June/July mdr activity is correlated with active seasons. 2023 was very active for a strong el nino year, Bonnie was technically not an mdr storm in the end, 2021 was an active season, 2018 was an active season, and so on. There is definitely a strong correlation between early season mdr activity and how active a season ends up being in the end. June/July mdr activity is an indicator for things to come in that we're probably not going to have an inactive season. With that said, even if we don't see mdr active in June or even well into July, I think the inherent set up is enough to conclude that we're in for a very active season.

[NDG]

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I'm just still shocked that Alex Boreham came out with such a bearish post this early on and went to say that he wouldn't see ACE get past 100 this season.

Yeah that was a joke lol this looks like a hyperactive season still just seems like the MDR is closed for business for a little while longer. Just couldn't resist making a 2013 joke

In general, if you see anyone worth their salt bringing up 2013 before mid August you can generally assume they're joking

Yeah, I realized it was a joke before going to bed so I slept good knowing it was
But a lot of people went along with it and started canceling the season out, a lot of newbies out there

[WiscoWx02]

Since 2021 we've seen June mdr activity or at least the strong potential of it each year (Elsa, Bonnie-ish, Bret, and Cindy). I think people were expecting it to happen again due to a record warm Atlantic and building La Nina. It's important to note that none of Klotzbach's analogs had June mdr activity and they all turned out to be very active to even record-breaking seasons.

I’ll be honest, I don’t view June MDR activity as an indicator of things to come. I always hears that June/early July MDR activity = hyperactivity/crazy and “bad” season ahead. The last few years have sort of put that argument to bed though minus 2017.

Well Klotzbach has said in the past that June/July mdr activity is correlated with active seasons. 2023 was very active for a strong el nino year, Bonnie was technically not an mdr storm in the end, 2021 was an active season, 2018 was an active season, and so on. There is definitely a strong correlation between early season mdr activity and how active a season ends up being in the end. June/July mdr activity is an indicator for things to come in that we're probably not going to have an inactive season. With that said, even if we don't see mdr active in June or even well into July, I think the inherent set up is enough to conclude that we're in for a very active season.

You and NotSparta make good points for sure! I suppose I have always been under the false impression that MDR June and early July activity = hyperactive season…2018, 2021 and 2023 were not which is why I said what I said earlier. Perhaps I need to amend that and lower the bar a bit and not think it means hyperactive per say and just think of it as anywhere from slightly above average to hyperactive.

[WiscoWx02]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1802776517652684956



Ben talks about how a Atlantic "Nina" tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic...just something interesting to note going forward. Always something to play devils advocate with.

[Woofde]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1802776517652684956



Ben talks about how a Atlantic "Nina" tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic...just something interesting to note going forward. Always something to play devils advocate with.

I think its one of those areas that needs more research. I remember earlier when we had a strong Atlantic Nino people were also saying it could cause suppression.

2005 and 2020 sported the same Atl. Nina look. If the two most active seasons both had it, I doubt it's too much of a detriment.

[Category5Kaiju]

Atlantic Nino/Nina isn't a well-studied phenomenon, and from what I currently understand it as, whatever effects it might have on the Atlantic hurricane season are completely dwarfed by other well-known facts such as ENSO state, MDR warmth, SAL/West African Monsoon, etc.

Though I would argue that an Atlantic Nino **could** also work against Atlantic activity in the sense that it robs warmth from the tropics and drags it southward and spreads it out over a greater area.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1802776517652684956



Ben talks about how a Atlantic "Nina" tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic...just something interesting to note going forward. Always something to play devils advocate with.

I think its one of those areas that needs more research. I remember earlier when we had a strong Atlantic Nino people were also saying it could cause suppression.

2005 and 2020 sported the same Atl. Nina look. If the two most active seasons both had it, I doubt it's too much of a detriment.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240617/33938905a34f88eb55177354b853391e.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240617/d8668ceac146ec40642409a6822d0b8d.jpg

But both seasons did not have a lot of strong hurricane activity in the MDR. In 2005, the strongest storm in this region was Maria (C3), and in 2020 it was Teddy (C4). Both were the only major hurricanes in these areas in the respective years mentioned. If this year we do have the Atlantic Nina, I imagine that the MDR may be a little less active than anticipated

[AnnularCane]

 https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/1802776517652684956



Ben talks about how a Atlantic "Nina" tends to suppress activity in the Atlantic...just something interesting to note going forward. Always something to play devils advocate with.

I think its one of those areas that needs more research. I remember earlier when we had a strong Atlantic Nino people were also saying it could cause suppression.

2005 and 2020 sported the same Atl. Nina look. If the two most active seasons both had it, I doubt it's too much of a detriment.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240617/33938905a34f88eb55177354b853391e.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20240617/d8668ceac146ec40642409a6822d0b8d.jpg

But both seasons did not have a lot of strong hurricane activity in the MDR. In 2005, the strongest storm in this region was Maria (C3), and in 2020 it was Teddy (C4). Both were the only major hurricanes in these areas in the respective years mentioned. If this year we do have the Atlantic Nina, I imagine that the MDR may be a little less active than anticipated

That's what I was wondering when 2005 and 2020 were brought up, about possible MDR suppression. And maybe, due to that, more activity further west?