2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cachondo23]

Very weird tracks from the GFS. Latest has it going west of Guadeloupe then completely north through Virgin Islands.

[LarryWx]

Still a good ensemble signal in the west Carib from the GFS and Canadian at the end of their runs. However the GFS and to a lesser extent the Canadian has consistently shown a signal there often all season long so I dont think its anything to worry about for now.

The wave the models show possibly developing and heading towards PR is something we may need to keep an eye on...interesting enough the ICON has been the southern outlier...it will be interesting to see what it does when its forecast range takes it it PR's longitude.

Along with Happy Hour Icon, the Happy Hour GFS, like the 12Z, 0Z, and 5 runs before, has this. It hits Virgin Islands with a cat 1 H 10/22-3.

Edit: I just looked at 12Z UKMET maps. Although the text already told me there was no TC from this, the H5 vorticity and precip maps are closer to a TCG than prior runs. If this trend continues, the often genesis shy UKMET may have an actual TCG from this within the next run or two.