2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[ElectricStorm]

GFS 994mb in west Caribbean at hr 156. Probably needs a lemon soon

EDIT: 989mb into C America

[IcyTundra]

Ridging might be strong enough to send any potential system into Central America or the Yucatán. GFS forecasting a pretty stout ridge to build in once Franklin and soon to be Idalia move out. Wind shear looks pretty low in both the Caribbean and the Gulf heading towards next weekend per the 12Z GFS. Definitely going have to keep an eye on this one.

[zzzh]

Again, GFS is the outlier model here, I'd wait til other models are on board.

[IcyTundra]

Again, GFS is the outlier model here, I'd wait til other models are on board.

Main issue this wave will probably deal with is that it is pretty far south and could just go straight into Northern South America ending any chance of development. Euro has the wave running into South America and support from the GEFS isn’t great right now so I would lean towards no development.

[Stratton23]

It definitely bears watching for sure, just because the GFS is alone right now doesnt mean that cant change lol

[captainbarbossa19]

I remember back in 2017, a certain storm was initially forecast to crash into Central America, but the upper pattern did not pan out according to what models initially showed which allowed the disturbance to enter the Gulf. That may not happen this time, but every wave should be watched closely heading into early September, especially since the tropics have become much more active.

[Landy]

18z GFS also develops.

[Hurricane Mike]

Seems like it could be a Caribbean year.

[abajan]

Double-whammy for Bermuda if this were to pan out:

[weeniepatrol]

[captainbarbossa19]

12z UKMET seems to have an upper level low next weekend trying to work its way down to the surface off the Louisiana coast. Other models show it too, but it doesn't really move much over the Gulf. Need to watch this closely.

[Stratton23]

Lol 18z GFS

[nlosrgr8]

I hope 18z GFS is LOLz !

[SconnieCane]

Lol 18z GFS

What about it? I only looked to see what it does with Idalia.

[JtSmarts]

Lol 18z GFS

What about it? I only looked to see what it does with Idalia.

A strong TS/Cane into Jacksonville on Sep 8 followed by a major into TX on Sep 11.

[nlosrgr8]

And that storm into Houston is gone….from GFS, let it stay gone!

[Cpv17]

And that storm into Houston is gone….from GFS, let it stay gone!

Nah, we need the rain. I think most of us would all love a storm right now, unless it’s a major then no thanks.

[zzzh]

Euro, icon all have a wave developing in the mdr in day 7-9 range

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro, icon all have a wave developing in the mdr in day 7-9 range

As Captain Barbossa would probably say if he were a meteorologist:

Arrr, me hearties! 'Tis the peak o' the season upon us, it be. Looks like we be settin' sail on this grand adventure, we are.

[underthwx]

Euro, icon all have a wave developing in the mdr in day 7-9 range

As Captain Barbossa would probably say if he were a meteorologist:

Arrr, me hearties! 'Tis the peak o' the season upon us, it be. Looks like we be settin' sail on this grand adventure, we are.

Might make it to the RRR storm....