ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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LarryWx
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13081 Postby LarryWx » Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:05 pm



As Ben says, the only times on record in April (i.e. back to 1982) that Niño 1+2 was higher than now were in 1998 and 1983, but those were both AFTER a fall/winter with El Niño. In their respective Aprils the year before, which is comparable to April of 2023, the SSTs were much cooler.

Looking back all of the way to 1870, here's a link to monthly SST anomalies in Nino 1+2:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseri ... .anom.data

Looking at April, the warmest April monthlies all of the way back to 1870 in 1+2 by far are the aforementioned 1998 and 1983, which were as previously mentioned after rather than before their respective El Niño peaks. All other Aprils were over a degree cooler!

I then focused on April anomalies in Nino 1+2 just prior to the El Niños that reached +2.0+ in Nino 3.4 for 3 month averaged periods: 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1888, and 1877.

- 2015: +0.6
- 1997: +1.0
- 1982: -0.5
- 1972: +1.1
- 1965: +1.7 (warmest of any pre-Nino April back to 1870)
- 1888: +0.9
- 1877: +0.0

The first week of April of 2023 is +2.7. It is as we know by far the most unstable Nino region from week to week. So, it could easily fall back sharply during the next few weeks. But if it doesn't fall back much, we'd end up with by far the warmest pre-El Nino April in Nino 1+2 for all El Niños back to at least 1870! We'd be so far into uncharted territory.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13082 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:39 pm

Maybe just for a bit of confirmation, but about how strong was the 1958 Nino?
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13083 Postby LarryWx » Tue Apr 11, 2023 12:49 pm

AnnularCane wrote:Maybe just for a bit of confirmation, but about how strong was the 1958 Nino?


Are you asking in relation to the 1958 tropical season? If so, the most relevant Nino would be 1958-9 rather than 1957-8. The 1958-9 Nino was very weak (barely El Niño) with a three month peak of only +0.6.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13084 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Apr 11, 2023 1:08 pm

LarryWx wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Maybe just for a bit of confirmation, but about how strong was the 1958 Nino?


Are you asking in relation to the 1958 tropical season? If so, the most relevant Nino would be 1958-9 rather than 1957-8. The 1958-9 Nino was very weak (barely El Niño) with a three month peak of only +0.6.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php


Yes, since apparently the 1958 season was rather active, but probably thinking about either winter. I have a weather book that mentions 1958 as being a pretty decent Nino (although maybe not exactly super).
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13085 Postby LarryWx » Tue Apr 11, 2023 3:18 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
AnnularCane wrote:Maybe just for a bit of confirmation, but about how strong was the 1958 Nino?


Are you asking in relation to the 1958 tropical season? If so, the most relevant Nino would be 1958-9 rather than 1957-8. The 1958-9 Nino was very weak (barely El Niño) with a three month peak of only +0.6.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php


Yes, since apparently the 1958 season was rather active, but probably thinking about either winter. I have a weather book that mentions 1958 as being a pretty decent Nino (although maybe not exactly super).


1957-8 was a strong El Niño with an ONI peak of +1.8.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13086 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 11, 2023 4:24 pm

The waters off Peru are ridiculously warm for this time of year regarding ENSO. Just to show how warm the Oceans overall have gotten, and to that great an anomaly is pretty stunning considering.

No doubt though an El Nino is building underneath. Much more progressed than the head-fakes of 2012 and 2017.

Image

Image

While nothing is guaranteed, at least the Oceanic profile is much more mature with warmth below than those two years so we shouldn't expect a similar outcome.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13087 Postby Ntxw » Tue Apr 11, 2023 4:29 pm

Flip side of the coin this isn't as mature as 1997 or 2015 from buoy data. Much more intense below those years. This will likely turn out to be a slow burn El Nino, steady moderate to maybe dip into strong late in the game.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13088 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 11, 2023 5:20 pm

https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

FM MEI still at -.7 and solidly in La Niña phase. -PDO is going to make it a challenge for a true El Niño atmospheric state to show up for a while.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13089 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 11, 2023 6:16 pm

 https://twitter.com/RudyMeteo/status/1645900561571536899



Translation below:
The strong temperature anomalies observed near the coasts of Peru (Nino12 region) #ElNinoCotier propagate towards the Nino3 region and should contribute to the warming of the central Pacific. Note that these are the highest in the region since 1983 and 1998.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13090 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:33 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/

FM MEI still at -.7 and solidly in La Niña phase. -PDO is going to make it a challenge for a true El Niño atmospheric state to shoe up for a while.

Yeah it'll probably flip in August, similar to 2009. Extremely hard for ENSO to flip positive and for the PDO to not follow suit.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13091 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:26 pm

^posting this to verify the data but according to this site, all months of 2009 except September had -PDO readings. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

It appears only 2002 and 2014-2016 had solid +PDO readings for an El Niño event in the last 25 years.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13092 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Apr 11, 2023 8:59 pm

:uarrow: really odd that that index has 2018-19 PDO as cold.
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Re: ENSO Updates: BoM update= El Niño Watch continues

#13093 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 12, 2023 3:45 am

dexterlabio wrote:^posting this to verify the data but according to this site, all months of 2009 except September had -PDO readings. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

It appears only 2002 and 2014-2016 had solid +PDO readings for an El Niño event in the last 25 years.



Yeah I wouldn't use NCEI's numbers. They have a weird climo mix. They would have the PDO negative when the configuration was obviously positive.

I think it's best to use JMA's numbers. They were the closest to Nate Mantua's numbers from JISAO who used to update the PDO on a monthly basis.

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/kaiyou/d ... do/pdo.txt
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13094 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 12, 2023 9:33 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#13095 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 12, 2023 10:04 am

Piggybacking off the subsurface analysis above, here is where we currently stand compared to the last Niña-to-Niño transitional event (2018-19). Warm pool has a more extensive look compared to that year, which is why I think this event could be stronger/more mature than that one come summer/autumn. Obviously not even close to what it looked like around this time in '97 and 2015 though as stated above, which is why I do not think a Super Niño is in the cards for this year (and why some of the long range climatological models may be overcompensating by showing an event of that caliber).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#13096 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:00 am

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update on thursday at 9 AM EDT

#13097 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:00 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update on thursday at 9 AM EDT

#13098 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:08 pm

Yikes.

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update on thursday at 9 AM EDT

#13099 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 12, 2023 4:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:Yikes.

https://i.imgur.com/m01dbxT.gif

Won't take much for a good chunk of that to surface, I think there's a WWB coming up so that'll help. 3.4 should join 1+2 in spiking soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update on thursday at 9 AM EDT

#13100 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:06 pm

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