ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Pagasa issues El Niño Alert

[cycloneye]

The SOI index turns positive.I guess it will not stay too long there, right?

[Kingarabian]

The SOI index turns positive.I guess it will not stay too long there, right?

https://i.imgur.com/NUfTF7g.jpg

It'll stay in this range until the atmosphere becomes fully El Nino which won't happen until early July.

[Kingarabian]

TAO buoys show the subsurface anomalies west of 120W not as impressive. But PENTAD shows warm anomalies redeveloping and moving east.

[Iceresistance]

That Subsurface warm pool is something else


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/Tempertaure-depth.gif

[Monsoonjr99]

With the warm Atlantic, African standing wave, and -PDO, any models showing a strong El Niño are probably overcooked imo. Though given the impressive subsurface, any more WWBs could get this event to moderate.

[cycloneye]

Here is a big WWB.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1653393393580486663

[JetFuel_SE]

Here is a big WWB.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1653393393580486663

80-100 degrees too far west to aid in El Niño development.

[Ntxw]

TAO buoys show the subsurface anomalies west of 120W not as impressive. But PENTAD shows warm anomalies redeveloping and moving east.

It's been doing this despite the trades near the IDL. This reminds me of 1965 and 2009 type events (1965 happened faster) where in the Spring barrier it was a slow burn, but eventually by summer the lid went off. It's cooking underneath with the currents moving eastward despite surface trades. All it will take is a WWB and once the lid goes off, more rapid warming will occur at 3.4. There's no cool water the trades can upwell.



Ignoring anomalies for a second, 28C is the magic number generally to sustain convection as well as raw WWBs and couple. March was a little more than 27C averaged and April hasn't come in yet but is warmer than March so likely >27.5C so if May can come in 28 to 28.5C then we are probably looking at moderate-strong event.

[cycloneye]

Here it comes.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653488549524836352

[Yellow Evan]

I still favor strong El Niño or something at least close but it’s odd MJO is passing through the MC at this magnitude and would be something you’d expect in a multi-year Niña with strong -IOD. However, it’s May 2 and we have a borderline El Niño state as is. We are 8 months out from this event peaking potentially and right now we have:
-A warm subsurface, stronger then 1991-92, 2002-03, 2009-10, that will amplify further with the upcoming MJO pass
-Favorable +SPO
-MJO that has been remarkably cooperative overall so far and has been willing to penetrate the Pacific
-favorable IO configuration
-Climo heavily supports a strong +ENSO after a long -ENSO especially with such rapid ENSO transition we’ve seen the last couple months

The -PDO we are seeing, the looming WAM, and the warm Atlantic are negatives (though less so the WAM now that a Nino base state may start to come established soon) that would be a much bigger deal if we weren’t so close already to El Niño and we’re still in the middle of spring. MJO probably has to linger in the IO or Phase 4 like a La Niña in order to delay the fairly significant El Niño we are bound to see to next year.

[cycloneye]

I still favor strong El Niño or something at least close but it’s odd MJO is passing through the MC at this magnitude and would be something you’d expect in a multi-year Niña with strong -IOD. However, it’s May 2 and we have a borderline El Niño state as is. We are 8 months out from this event peaking potentially and right now we have:
-A warm subsurface, stronger then 1991-92, 2002-03, 2009-10, that will amplify further with the upcoming MJO pass
-Favorable +SPO
-MJO that has been remarkably cooperative overall so far and has been willing to penetrate the Pacific
-favorable IO configuration
-Climo heavily supports a strong +ENSO after a long -ENSO especially with such rapid ENSO transition we’ve seen the last couple months

The -PDO we are seeing, the looming WAM, and the warm Atlantic are negatives (though less so the WAM now that a Nino base state may start to come established soon) that would be a much bigger deal if we weren’t so close already to El Niño and we’re still in the middle of spring. MJO probably has to linger in the IO or Phase 4 like a La Niña in order to delay the fairly significant El Niño we are bound to see to next year.

What is +SPO?

[Kingarabian]

Here it comes.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1653488549524836352

I would call those anomalies below average trades instead of actual westerly winds though. I think the MJO needs to slow down over the Pacific if we are to see a more significant Pacific WWB.

[Iceresistance]

I still favor strong El Niño or something at least close but it’s odd MJO is passing through the MC at this magnitude and would be something you’d expect in a multi-year Niña with strong -IOD. However, it’s May 2 and we have a borderline El Niño state as is. We are 8 months out from this event peaking potentially and right now we have:
-A warm subsurface, stronger then 1991-92, 2002-03, 2009-10, that will amplify further with the upcoming MJO pass
-Favorable +SPO
-MJO that has been remarkably cooperative overall so far and has been willing to penetrate the Pacific
-favorable IO configuration
-Climo heavily supports a strong +ENSO after a long -ENSO especially with such rapid ENSO transition we’ve seen the last couple months

The -PDO we are seeing, the looming WAM, and the warm Atlantic are negatives (though less so the WAM now that a Nino base state may start to come established soon) that would be a much bigger deal if we weren’t so close already to El Niño and we’re still in the middle of spring. MJO probably has to linger in the IO or Phase 4 like a La Niña in order to delay the fairly significant El Niño we are bound to see to next year.

What is +SPO?

I assume that the SPO means "Southern Pacific Oscillation", but I will wait for Yellow Evan's answer for what it is.

[Yellow Evan]

SHEM PDO.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: SHEM PDO.

Ok, thanks.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1653554711855857665

[dexterlabio]

Not too much ENSO related but I've always wondered if the Maritime Continent covers the Philippines/Southeast Asia.

[JetFuel_SE]

Not too much ENSO related but I've always wondered if the Maritime Continent covers the Philippines/Southeast Asia.

A quick Google search would clear that up

[dexterlabio]

Not too much ENSO related but I've always wondered if the Maritime Continent covers the Philippines/Southeast Asia.

A quick Google search would clear that up

Like I haven't done that yet and that everything Google shows is reliable. Searching this up online would tell you that MC = SE Asia, but it also turns out that WPAC's scope encompasses the South China Sea, so there's some kind of overlap don't you think