Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[NDG]

I wonder if that thunderstorm complex is being enhanced by shear caused by the remnants of Alma and will be gone by tonight or is something else developing.

Trough of low pressure along with good convergence at the surface and divergence aloft:

[boca]

I wonder if that thunderstorm complex is being enhanced by shear caused by the remnants of Alma and will be gone by tonight or is something else developing.

Trough of low pressure along with good convergence at the surface and divergence aloft:

Melbourne and Tampa NWS mention possible rain by the end of next week.Miami mentions nothing about it.

[KWT]

Interesting, we may need to watch just in case some sort of circulation try and develops in that convection NDG. If nothing else it does raise the chance of rainfall for Florida.

[gatorcane]

Interesting convection complex in the NW Caribbean this morning. Any signs of pressure drops?

[Evil Jeremy]

First real visible coming in:

[KWT]

Well there aren't no signs of wind shift away from E from what I've heard so I'd guess there isn't any turning and therefore probably I'd guess not much in the way of pressure falls. Still it may need be watched as Alma continues to weaken.

[gatorcane]

This tropical wave in the Central Caribbean heading into the Western Caribbean may just be the catalyst this convection needs to get that spin going. Note this is not too far off from what the GFS was showing every so often in its runs from 5+ days ago.

[KWT]

It all looks very complicated looking at that map gatrocane, but yep the tropical wave may well ve given that extra boost to the convection that we've seen on and off down there in that region for the last few days.

[Evil Jeremy]

Here we go again. We are in the same position as we were days ago. Convection in the Caribbean, and a wave on its way that could set the system off. Deja Vu lol.

[boca]

If that thunderstorm complex developed it wouldn't head towards Florida but towards the west into Central America because of high pressure over the GOM which is forcing Ex Alma NW across CA.

[KWT]

The big difference is we don't have a rapidly developing Alma starting to dominate everything, indeed this time around Alma is on its way out, for now anyway!

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks to me like there is some low or middle level circulation under or near that convection, but that is with my untrained eyes.

[vaffie]

The forecasted track of the GFS's low shifted westward in the 06 run to SE Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_264l.gif

[boca]

In the last frame the tops of those clouds are starting to warm so I'm watching but not too concerned about deveopment.

[KWT]

It doesn't look like there is any circulation, its just the outflow from the storms which is making it look like its turning, esp when you see it on the higher resolution sat imagery on foxweather's website he put up earlier today. Still looks like an interesting area of convection however.

[tailgater]

Go to this site, animate on high zoom at the GOH for 4 frames. There is a nice little twist in the SW corner of GOH. Also note that on eastern edge of Honduras the in flow into that T-storm complex to the northeast.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Canelaw99]

This tropical wave in the Central Caribbean heading into the Western Caribbean may just be the catalyst this convection needs to get that spin going. Note this is not too far off from what the GFS was showing every so often in its runs from 5+ days ago.

Sorry but I just wanted to say I love their puffy little clouds on the map

[wxman57]

In the last frame the tops of those clouds are starting to warm so I'm watching but not too concerned about deveopment.

I was about to point that out, boca. GFS shows that weak vorticity center just south of western Cuba well. It moves the vorticity (and storms) northwest into the south-central Gulf then dissipates it. That's what I expect to occur. Already, those storms are diminishing and a new area of storms is developing well to the west just east of the Yucatan. That's the next "hot spot". The main energy should shift westward across the Yucatan into the BoC over the weekend. With strong high pressure in the mid levels over TX and the NW Gulf, mean steering flow is out of the NE all across the central and NW Gulf this weekend through the middle of next week. Anything in the BoC should remain there or move into Mexico.

[KWT]

Could something develop in the BOC then if the voricity does eventually reach there and also what role would Alma's remains have on any such chances wxman57?

[Evil Jeremy]

There goes the chances of some more rain up here