2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea, 120 hours is hardly fantasy land (I reserve that for 168 hours and beyond personally). GFS has been incredibly consistent with this solution, so either this is going to be a massive win for the GFS or a massive loss.

[gatorcane]

The GFS run ends with another SW Caribbean storm. It would not surprise me if we get one later this month.

[SFLcane]

The GFS run ends with another SW Caribbean storm. It would not surprise me if we get one later this month.

https://i.postimg.cc/506QBPwN/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-64.png

Extreme fantasy but EPS is also showing something around the same time frame.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS run ends with another SW Caribbean storm. It would not surprise me if we get one later this month.

https://i.postimg.cc/506QBPwN/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-64.png

Extreme fantasy but EPS is also showing something around the same time frame.

It’s probably not a phantom because It can be traced back to the wave that just came off of Africa

[chaser1]

T minus 90 hr's - https://imgur.com/FxMR6rE

[ronjon]

Looking increasingly likely for tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean somewhere south of Jamaica with GFS, ICON, and CMC all persistently showing a cyclone spinning up in 4-5 days. Ridging at 500 mb looks solid to steer perhaps a major hurricane into Belieze in about a week.

[GCANE]

Looks like this will initiate out of the Gyre from the E PAC when the surface winds south of Panama shift to the west.

[GCANE]

Euro spins it up in the EPAC

[GCANE]

Euro spins it up in the EPAC

Euro ensembles also cluster in the W Carib with one making landfall in Belize at 951mb

[N2FSU]

I know it’s 2019 and we set heat records through the first week of October, but you have to wonder if the ridge the models keep showing really holds by middle October. Climo just doesn’t favor a continued westward track down there. Then again, 2019 has thumbed it’s nose at climo so far.

[NDG]

Just unbelievable continuing differences between the GFS and operational Euro runs. Not until the Euro joins the rest of the models will the NHC start highlighting the south central Caribbean for possible tropical development. The trend by the Euro ensembles is of more members showing development showing development over the Caribbean.

[tolakram]

Just unbelievable continuing differences between the GFS and operational Euro runs. Not until the Euro joins the rest of the models will the NHC start highlighting the south central Caribbean for possible tropical development. The trend by the Euro ensembles is of more members showing development showing development over the Caribbean.

I don't see that much of a difference. The GFS develops the wave, the euro also shows it but develops a storm in the EPAC.

[NDG]

Just unbelievable continuing differences between the GFS and operational Euro runs. Not until the Euro joins the rest of the models will the NHC start highlighting the south central Caribbean for possible tropical development. The trend by the Euro ensembles is of more members showing development showing development over the Caribbean.

I don't see that much of a difference. The GFS develops the wave, the euro also shows it but develops a storm in the EPAC.

If you look closely the Operational Euro develops a TW further west than what the GFS and other models show developing.

[SconnieCane]

One of those cases where a margin-of-error discrepancy in the models at this range means a world of difference for potential human impacts.

[CaribJam]

Does the convection that is developing in the south central Caribbean has anything to do with what the models have been hinting?

[cycloneye]

There is a thread for the Caribbean area so the model runs can be posted there.

[CaribJam]

There is a thread for the Caribbean area so the model runs can be posted there.

Thanks Cycloneye.

[Hurricaneman]

I’m thinking looking at the GFS there could be development in the western Caribbean around the 21st and does have a little support from the EPS, I think that’s where and when a potential threat pop up and not really from the current Caribbean system

[gatorcane]

I’m thinking looking at the GFS there could be development in the western Caribbean around the 21st and does have a little support from the EPS, I think that’s where and when a potential threat pop up and not really from the current Caribbean system

“Olga” would be a fitting name for such a late October system. The name is up there with some menacing and threatening female names of the past ending in “a” names - Irma, Wilma, and Imelda. We just need Melissa and Nestor to form somewhere else before then. Latest GFS spins it up again.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has a system form around the 24th, the GFS ensembles seemed to be somewhat enthusiastic too, I’m not too sure how enthusiastic the EPS is though