Rita Recon Reports

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Remember....I believe it was Stewart that said that the shear forecasted by the GFS was the result of the upper-level anticyclone being ridiculously strong, which confused the GFS into thinking there would be shear.

[cycloneye]

URNT40 KWBC 221620
NOAA3 1818A RITA
161030 2512 08829 10038 -0815 210096 +135 +135 209098 077 013
161100 2514 08831 10061 -0891 212097 +138 +134 212097 072 010
161130 2515 08833 10019 -0982 213097 +146 +114 213098 070 004
161200 2517 08834 10058 -1099 211103 +147 +126 212106 073 001
161230 2518 08836 10067 -1257 212107 +156 +134 212110 080 001
161300 2520 08838 10069 -1457 211116 +150 +147 211119 087 002
161330 2521 08839 10114 -1691 209113 +156 +156 211116 090 011
161400 2523 08841 10023 -1915 201082 +172 +169 204095 076 005
161430 2525 08843 10023 -2042 195060 +183 +167 197067 054 002
161500 2525 08845 10013 -2133 188040 +198 +155 190047 030 003
161530 2526 08847 10020 -2182 180017 +194 +157 179025 013 002
161600 2525 08850 10023 -2191 352008 +188 +162 001015 008 001
161630 2525 08852 10014 -2154 351028 +187 +158 347035 011 002
161700 2523 08853 10017 -2089 324047 +188 +156 314050 999 999
161730 2521 08851 10020 -2051 296057 +199 +148 296058 999 999
161800 2522 08849 10020 -2107 273047 +196 +150 280055 999 999
161830 2524 08848 10013 -2178 258020 +195 +148 257030 015 002
161900 2526 08849 10028 -2192 296001 +187 +155 245007 012 001
161930 2528 08850 10028 -2184 073015 +199 +151 083021 013 002
162000 2530 08850 10029 -2152 090028 +199 +156 094030 999 999



Another vortex comming.

[Brent]

*taps feet*

[cycloneye]

URNT40 KWBC 221640
NOAA3 1818A RITA
163030 2551 08916 10008 -0464 051094 +131 +118 052096 070 014
163100 2552 08918 10010 -0418 050092 +125 +124 051092 068 011
163130 2554 08919 10011 -0375 050090 +125 +119 050092 066 006
163200 2555 08921 10008 -0344 052086 +126 +120 051087 063 005
163230 2557 08923 10014 -0313 052083 +129 +112 053085 061 004
163300 2558 08924 10008 -0282 053080 +127 +112 053081 060 005
163330 2600 08926 10015 -0257 054079 +124 +121 053080 061 004
163400 2602 08927 10016 -0233 054077 +127 +120 054078 061 003
163430 2603 08929 10006 -0211 054075 +127 +120 054075 060 003
163500 2605 08930 10010 -0185 054071 +130 +113 055075 060 002
163530 2606 08932 10010 -0165 055071 +128 +115 055072 058 002
163600 2608 08934 10016 -0144 053069 +129 +114 054071 057 004
163630 2609 08935 10017 -0123 052065 +122 +121 053065 057 006
163700 2611 08937 10013 -0103 049065 +124 +123 051066 058 010
163730 2612 08939 10006 -0089 051067 +124 +124 051068 057 009
163800 2614 08940 10006 -0074 055068 +123 +123 055068 057 007
163830 2615 08942 10011 -0054 053068 +117 +117 055068 057 010
163900 2617 08944 10018 -0036 050063 +115 +115 050065 057 012
163930 2618 08945 10023 -0016 047067 +111 +111 043071 057 013
164000 2620 08947 10006 -0002 041070 +108 +108 041071 056 010

[cycloneye]

URNT40 KWBC 221650
NOAA3 1818A RITA
164030 2621 08949 10007 +0007 041070 +111 +111 040071 054 008
164100 2622 08950 10008 -0847 030085 +111 +111 023099 053 008
164130 2624 08952 10010 +0032 039075 +113 +103 038076 050 008
164200 2625 08954 10005 +0043 038071 +116 +099 039073 048 007
164230 2626 08955 10008 +0050 038068 +120 +095 039068 049 005
164300 2628 08957 10010 +0059 040069 +122 +082 039069 048 004
164330 2629 08958 10009 +0065 040066 +123 +075 040067 045 004
164400 2630 09000 10010 +0072 042064 +126 +067 042065 043 004
164430 2632 09001 10017 +0081 043063 +127 +065 044063 039 004
164500 2633 09003 10017 +0091 042063 +130 +070 042063 040 006
164530 2634 09004 10015 +0099 043066 +133 +071 043067 042 007
164600 2636 09006 10018 +0108 040064 +125 +075 042065 042 005
164630 2637 09008 10015 +0120 038062 +111 +086 038062 042 005
164700 2639 09009 10012 +0125 041063 +109 +092 043063 040 005
164730 2640 09011 10010 +0135 046067 +102 +100 047068 999 999
164800 2640 09014 10013 +0145 045061 +123 +076 046062 999 999
164830 2638 09016 10011 +0146 042062 +130 +061 041063 039 003
164900 2637 09018 10018 +0143 041062 +128 +064 042062 041 001
164930 2635 09020 10013 +0146 039062 +125 +070 039062 040 003
165000 2633 09022 10010 +0148 037063 +124 +070 037064 041 002



False Alarm. No message yet.

[feederband]

That's just not right man...

[Brent]

URNT12 KNHC 221655Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1619Z
B. 25 DEG 26 MIN N
88 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2338 M
D. 80
E. 135 DEG 15 NM
F. 211 DEG 120 KT
G. 119 DEG 11 NM
H. 915 MB
I. 12 C/ 3048 M
J. 20 C/ 3057 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C018-45
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1818A RITA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 135 KT NE QUAD 1446Z
EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION, SFC CENTER OBSCURED

[artist]

so how does the recorded 167 and 169 kts above play into this being only 135 kts? (fl level)

[soonertwister]

While the noticeable reduction in winds is welcome, I'm concerned about when the ERC is complete. 45 miles is a pretty big replacement eye, hurricane windfield is sure to expand.

And at 915, it appears that the pressure is not rising as fast as expected; in fact, it appears that the pressure may be stabilizing soon. That may preclude another pressure drop and higher winds as Rita approaches to coast.

Let's all hope for the best. There's a lot of trouble brewing out there.

[jax]

915, that is great news!
she will probably continue to to weeken from this point forward.
I would like to see 950+ at landfall....

[x-y-no]

While the noticeable reduction in winds is welcome, I'm concerned about when the ERC is complete. 45 miles is a pretty big replacement eye, hurricane windfield is sure to expand.

And at 915, it appears that the pressure is not rising as fast as expected; in fact, it appears that the pressure may be stabilizing soon. That may preclude another pressure drop and higher winds as Rita approaches to coast.

Let's all hope for the best. There's a lot of trouble brewing out there.

Not sure I undersatnd you ... why would the pressure stabilizing preclude another pressure drop?

[shawn67]

I think what soonertwister is saying is that the improved satellite presentation along with the only minimal pressure changes could be signalling the end of this ERC which COULD mean a new round of strengthening. IMHO of course

Shawn

[CaptinCrunch]

A Hurricane will weaken (preasure goes up) as it goes thru a ERC, at the end of a ERC the preasure will level out, then it will start to strenghten again and the preasure begains to drop.

[soonertwister]

While the noticeable reduction in winds is welcome, I'm concerned about when the ERC is complete. 45 miles is a pretty big replacement eye, hurricane windfield is sure to expand.

And at 915, it appears that the pressure is not rising as fast as expected; in fact, it appears that the pressure may be stabilizing soon. That may preclude another pressure drop and higher winds as Rita approaches to coast.

Let's all hope for the best. There's a lot of trouble brewing out there.

Not sure I undersatnd you ... why would the pressure stabilizing preclude another pressure drop?

On IR it appears that Rita is re-intensifying. After an ERC it's not unusual for the hurricane to regather strength. The pressure rose noticeably, but the latest recon shows a slowing of the pressure rise, and possibly stopping. This can be followed by re-intensification. I believe that most of the weakening we have seen has been almost entirely as a result of the disorganization that is associated with the ERC, and with the improved IR presentation, and now with a 45 mile eye, rather than the previous 20 mile eye, the windfield expands, and as the eye again contracts, the winds increase.

That's my reasoning. It's not to say that the pressure will not rise to something like 950 before landfall, but I'd like to be optimistic, and I'm not.

915 is still well into cat 5 range, even if the current winds don't support it. I expect to see winds 10-20 knots higher in six hours from the previous advisory.

[dixiebreeze]

915, that is great news!
she will probably continue to to weeken from this point forward.
I would like to see 950+ at landfall....

I'd like to see it at 1010 --

[cycloneye]

SXXX50 KNHC 221731
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 04 KNHC
1720. 3247N 08432W 04805 0050 079 010 025 151 011 04931 0000000000
1721 3245N 08432W 04826 0116 078 008 025 171 009 05018 0000000000
1721. 3242N 08432W 05022 0111 083 010 033 145 011 05209 0000000000
1722 3240N 08433W 05243 0095 080 011 053 115 012 05415 0000000000
1722. 3238N 08433W 05400 0103 077 010 063 105 010 05580 0000000000
1723 3236N 08433W 05561 0158 057 007 073 101 009 05796 0000000000
1723. 3234N 08433W 05702 0171 031 009 081 105 011 05950 0000000000
1724 3232N 08433W 05787 0195 030 012 089 111 012 06060 0000000000
1724. 3230N 08433W 05785 0190 030 012 091 121 013 06053 0000000000
1725 3228N 08433W 05794 0133 031 012 091 131 013 06005 0000000000
1725. 3226N 08432W 05791 0118 033 012 091 155 012 05986 0000000000
1726 3223N 08432W 05789 0145 034 011 091 165 011 06012 0000000000
1726. 3221N 08432W 05928 0172 025 012 091 149 013 06178 0000000000
1727 3218N 08432W 06205 0192 011 008 107 145 010 06476 0000000000
1727. 3216N 08433W 06424 0172 020 014 113 151 016 06681 0000000000
1728 3215N 08435W 06505 0221 027 017 119 155 017 06812 0000000000
1728. 3214N 08437W 06600 0218 034 017 123 161 017 06904 0000000000
1729 3212N 08439W 06673 0220 037 016 129 165 017 06979 0000000000
1729. 3211N 08441W 06696 0234 034 015 131 169 015 07016 0000000000
1730 3210N 08443W 06705 0328 034 015 131 173 016 07106 0000000000


Plane just took off from Georgia.

[Solaris]

AF306 taking over

539
SXXX50 KNHC 221721
AF306 WX18A RITA01 HDOB 03 KNHC
1710. 3328N 08427W 01808 5152 151 012 134 110 012 01691 0000000000
1711 3326N 08427W 01769 5147 137 012 132 116 013 01658 0000000000
1711. 3324N 08428W 02056 5121 147 014 122 100 015 01972 0000000000
1712 3323N 08428W 02406 5105 148 014 106 078 015 02343 0000000000
1712. 3321N 08428W 02687 5099 151 011 090 066 012 02631 0000000000
1713 3319N 08429W 02929 5067 138 005 080 050 008 02904 0000000000
1713. 3317N 08429W 03108 5059 093 004 074 008 004 03092 0000000000
1714 3316N 08429W 03249 5050 078 003 074 079 003 03242 0000000000
1714. 3314N 08430W 03290 5024 064 003 076 135 004 03309 0000000000
1715 3311N 08430W 03299 5012 047 004 080 153 005 03329 0000000000
1715. 3309N 08430W 03299 5012 019 003 082 159 003 03331 0000000000
1716 3307N 08431W 03298 5004 356 003 080 133 003 03338 0000000000
1716. 3304N 08431W 03293 0000 008 004 076 083 004 03337 0000000000
1717 3301N 08432W 03303 0015 014 004 070 041 004 03361 0000000000
1717. 3259N 08432W 03308 0012 010 003 072 035 004 03364 0000000000
1718 3256N 08432W 03762 0021 104 002 046 057 004 03827 0000000000
1718. 3254N 08432W 04241 5009 083 012 020 143 014 04295 0000000000
1719 3252N 08432W 04463 0011 083 011 006 141 012 04549 0000000000
1719. 3251N 08432W 04615 0019 077 010 007 133 010 04708 0000000000
1720 3249N 08432W 04765 0038 074 011 017 133 012 04878 0000000000

[cycloneye]

URNT40 KWBC 221720
NOAA3 1818A RITA
171030 2501 09036 10015 +0109 354062 +116 +064 355062 035 002
171100 2458 09035 10013 +0108 353061 +115 +062 353061 036 003
171130 2456 09034 10014 +0107 352060 +117 +061 352060 037 003
171200 2453 09033 10011 +0106 350061 +116 +063 351062 035 003
171230 2451 09032 10009 +0103 348060 +111 +078 348061 033 003
171300 2448 09031 10015 +0105 348062 +114 +075 348062 034 003
171330 2446 09030 10019 +0111 346060 +114 +079 347061 036 005
171400 2443 09029 10017 +0114 343059 +115 +084 341060 034 003
171430 2441 09028 10009 +0116 341059 +119 +070 340059 035 003
171500 2438 09027 10009 +0119 344058 +123 +064 344058 035 003
171530 2436 09026 10017 +0120 343057 +126 +057 342058 034 003
171600 2433 09025 10016 +0124 340056 +129 +057 340057 032 003
171630 2431 09024 10019 +0126 339054 +126 +057 339054 031 002
171700 2428 09023 10017 +0130 338052 +125 +059 339052 031 003
171730 2426 09022 10014 +0135 336049 +126 +072 338049 036 003
171800 2423 09021 10019 +0141 329048 +123 +078 330048 034 003
171830 2421 09020 10015 +0150 308048 +126 +081 307049 034 003
171900 2419 09019 10015 +0153 320048 +126 +074 322049 033 003
171930 2417 09017 10007 +0153 323047 +120 +080 322048 999 999
172000 2416 09015 10009 +0148 318049 +119 +083 319050 999 999



While a plane took off from Georgia NOAA3 plane continues around Rita.

[Solaris]

rita meanwhile downgraded to 4

[soonertwister]

Highly OT and not something I'll repeat, but the seas at Galveston and Freeport are already getting quite roily and angry looking. I can't imagine what they will be like tomorrow.