Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[tarheelprogrammer]

If you take away Alex and the numbers for that storm you are well below. A lot of the experts dismiss using the numbers for Alex as it was not technically in the current season. I am just pointing out that experts are noticing the ACE start to slip below.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Realtime/northatlanticstormstats.html

Average is 10.7 for August 10th, we are at 9.9. Without Alex we are at 6.7. which was the normal on July 24th, 15 days ago. We will be even more below average 15 days from now (19.3 average) unless something unexpected happens. I'm not sure what this means other than a comparison to an averaged number.

Do you think falling behind the ACE average foretells of a slower than forecast season?

If we get to the end of August and the two week model output still shows unfavorable conditions then I think it's a safe bet the forecast for a normal season will be too high. There is always that small chance of some crazy late season burst but it's not likely in my opinion. I also think that regardless of activity; if the cape verde season is below normal the Atlantic will be hard pressed to come up with average ACE just due to the limited lifespan of storms. I have no data to back that up, just a hunch.

The fact that the EPAC is forecast (models anyway) to experience these same hostile conditions is interesting, but I don't know what it means, if anything.

Yeah I feel as if ACE slipping below normal means at best a normal season and more than likely a below average season if it continues. Just noticed ACE dipped below normal and wanted to also mention without Alex it would be somewhat lower. You are right by saying that if the end of August model runs still show a bad pattern then it is probably officially time to have the fat lady come out to sing. Either way I'll be watching.

[Bocadude85]

If you take away Alex and the numbers for that storm you are well below. A lot of the experts dismiss using the numbers for Alex as it was not technically in the current season. I am just pointing out that experts are noticing the ACE start to slip below.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Realtime/northatlanticstormstats.html

Average is 10.7 for August 10th, we are at 9.9. Without Alex we are at 6.7. which was the normal on July 24th, 15 days ago. We will be even more below average 15 days from now (19.3 average) unless something unexpected happens. I'm not sure what this means other than a comparison to an averaged number.

Do you think falling behind the ACE average foretells of a slower than forecast season?

If we get to the end of August and the two week model output still shows unfavorable conditions then I think it's a safe bet the forecast for a normal season will be too high. There is always that small chance of some crazy late season burst but it's not likely in my opinion. I also think that regardless of activity; if the cape verde season is below normal the Atlantic will be hard pressed to come up with average ACE just due to the limited lifespan of storms. I have no data to back that up, just a hunch.

The fact that the EPAC is forecast (models anyway) to experience these same hostile conditions is interesting, but I don't know what it means, if anything.

Yeah I feel as if ACE slipping below normal means at best a normal season and more than likely a below average season if it continues. Just noticed ACE dipped below normal and wanted to also mention without Alex it would be somewhat lower. You are right by saying that if the end of August model runs still show a bad pattern then it is probably officially time to have the fat lady come out to sing. Either way I'll be watching.

The fat lady won't be singing until November 30th. September and October is prime time for hurricane landfalls here in Florida, regardless if the season is slow or hyperactive.

[TheStormExpert]

Phil K. acknowledging the fact that the 1998 season didn't get going until late August.
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/762733412553674752



He also states that the 1998 SST pattern is more favorable for hurricanes.
 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/762761486246645760

[Yellow Evan]

Average is 10.7 for August 10th, we are at 9.9. Without Alex we are at 6.7. which was the normal on July 24th, 15 days ago. We will be even more below average 15 days from now (19.3 average) unless something unexpected happens. I'm not sure what this means other than a comparison to an averaged number.

Do you think falling behind the ACE average foretells of a slower than forecast season?

If we get to the end of August and the two week model output still shows unfavorable conditions then I think it's a safe bet the forecast for a normal season will be too high. There is always that small chance of some crazy late season burst but it's not likely in my opinion. I also think that regardless of activity; if the cape verde season is below normal the Atlantic will be hard pressed to come up with average ACE just due to the limited lifespan of storms. I have no data to back that up, just a hunch.

The fact that the EPAC is forecast (models anyway) to experience these same hostile conditions is interesting, but I don't know what it means, if anything.

Yeah I feel as if ACE slipping below normal means at best a normal season and more than likely a below average season if it continues. Just noticed ACE dipped below normal and wanted to also mention without Alex it would be somewhat lower. You are right by saying that if the end of August model runs still show a bad pattern then it is probably officially time to have the fat lady come out to sing. Either way I'll be watching.

The fat lady won't be singing until November 30th. September and October is prime time for hurricane landfalls here in Florida, regardless if the season is slow or hyperactive.

I agree that in two weeks from now, if the Atlantic is still quiet and the models aren't showing anything else in the next week, then it is time start reducing the odds of an active ATL season.

But yes, in the absolute right pattern, a potent hurricane can still happen, and possibly affect land.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Yeah I feel as if ACE slipping below normal means at best a normal season and more than likely a below average season if it continues. Just noticed ACE dipped below normal and wanted to also mention without Alex it would be somewhat lower. You are right by saying that if the end of August model runs still show a bad pattern then it is probably officially time to have the fat lady come out to sing. Either way I'll be watching.

The fat lady won't be singing until November 30th. September and October is prime time for hurricane landfalls here in Florida, regardless if the season is slow or hyperactive.

I agree that in two weeks from now, if the Atlantic is still quiet and the models aren't showing anything else in the next week, then it is time start reducing the odds of an active ATL season.

But yes, in the absolute right pattern, a potent hurricane can still happen, and possibly affect land.

Technically this is what I meant. Fat lady singing is of course a reference to the season being weaker overall. Of course in any year a hurricane can hit and cause devastation. See 1992.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/762967615048298497

[cycloneye]

Look at that cloud bank.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/763004527301623808

[wxman57]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

[Siker]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

Oh no, the whole season just got Bones'd!

[tarheelprogrammer]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

And people said I was nuts in July for calling for around the same numbers for the rest of the season. Season could change but the amount of dry air is amazing right now coming off of Africa. The Atlantic is just not what it used to be and it seems to be getting worse not better. El Nino died and this season could end up even weaker than last season. Shocking.

[tolakram]

I don't remember anyone calling you crazy, but like with ninel I wanted some sort of reasoning as to why. I haven't seen the long term euro, I thought it was still favorable, but regardless the season will do what it will do.

The northern hemisphere is in a funk right now.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/762991862474874880

[blp]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

Wow thanks for you candid insight. I have always respected and appreciated what you bring to the board.

My roof has a leak and just put up the tarp so you made my day. Otherwise I would be a little bummed out.

What do you think is causing this to spike again this year. It seems to have dogged the Atlantic since 2010.

My amateur opinion was thinking the abnormally High Pressure in the mid levels this year could exacerbating the situation by promoting a more stable air mass and stronger trade winds.

[centuryv58]

I don't remember anyone calling you crazy, but like with ninel I wanted some sort of reasoning as to why. I haven't seen the long term euro, I thought it was still favorable, but regardless the season will do what it will do.

The northern hemisphere is in a funk right now.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 2474874880

You may be right. Almost every other Professional weather organization is calling for near normal. Not sure what Wx 57 thinks he sees that others do not.

[LarryWx]

I think 57 is trolling and playing on the season cancel posts. I think it is funny. I think he really thinks it will get more active late in the month per a recent post he made. How could anyone think that Bones post is a serious post?

[Huckster]

I have a feeling wxman is just joking around and making light of all the season cancel posts

[tarheelprogrammer]

I don't remember anyone calling you crazy, but like with ninel I wanted some sort of reasoning as to why. I haven't seen the long term euro, I thought it was still favorable, but regardless the season will do what it will do.

The northern hemisphere is in a funk right now.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 2474874880

Some people were but you are right nature will do what it wants. The Atlantic is a graveyard and the seasons keep getting worse. I am not sure what could be causing this because we have now seen it in El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral conditions. For the most part either storms are weak, they do not form at all, or they are OTS. The basin as a whole has been quiet recently. So many records now stand and the likely hood that these records get stopped is looking more and more unlikely. I will leave it at that.

[crownweather]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

http://oi67.tinypic.com/348t54i.jpg

I agree with Larry that I think wxman is not serious at all. In fact, he mentioned yesterday on the Global Models Run topic that it looked quiet for next 2 weeks followed by a increase in activity thereafter.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

http://oi67.tinypic.com/348t54i.jpg

I agree with Larry that I think wxman is not serious at all. In fact, he mentioned yesterday on the Global Models Run topic that it looked quiet for next 2 weeks followed by a increase in activity thereafter.

If so he did a great job of trolling me because I usually pick up on it but failed to here lol

[Steve]

I've been keeping a very close watch on the tropics and all the seasonal indicators over the past month. Everything I see points to no further activity in the Atlantic Basin this season. Dust and dry air are on the increase across the Tropical Atlantic this week (and next). Dry, sinking air has quashed all recent waves moving off the west coast of Africa. I don't see any organized waves over Africa at all.

It's clear that conditions are not going to improve across the basin over the next few months, so I've lowered my season totals to 5/2/0.

And people said I was nuts in July for calling for around the same numbers for the rest of the season. Season could change but the amount of dry air is amazing right now coming off of Africa. The Atlantic is just not what it used to be and it seems to be getting worse not better. El Nino died and this season could end up even weaker than last season. Shocking.

You were. He's not serious. Come on man

[psyclone]

I think we'll get the hints we all crave later this month. August is the first big month of the season but it's usually back loaded...we've seen many active years that failed to produce much action in the first two thirds of the month (1998 has been referenced) but if we don't see some respectable activity in the latter third of the month I would then feel fairly confident in betting on the lower estimates verifying. that doesn't mean the season cancel...there's no fat lady, no singing...none of that. for my region our historic hot zone for hurricane strikes is the latter half of September through October. we don't write off hurricane seasons in august.