2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Hammy]

I remember somebody pointing out the higher latitude they're currently coming off could be the cause of the continued SAL outbreaks, and the GFS is starting to show them coming off further south at the end of the run.

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF continues to show a Storm in MDR by the end of the month.

[AutoPenalti]

00z ECMWF continues to show a Storm in MDR by the end of the month.

OTS?

[otowntiger]

00z ECMWF continues to show a Storm in MDR by the end of the month.

OTS?

In that position, I'd say yes, out to sea. Climatologically that is the highest probability for storms in that location, especially ones that well developed that far out.

[gatorcane]

Euro has it again on 12Z but looks very fish if it really gets that strong.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET likes the Cape Verde storm also:

[Kingarabian]

Going to ignore any model depictions that show a strong TC in the MDR. Models have forecasted many this season and ZERO have come into fruition.

As has been the case this season, we should wait till the wave reaches the islands where it'll likely find better conditions. Unfortunately, when waves are not developing in the MDR, the risks towards the CONUS increases.

[cycloneye]

Going to ignore any model depictions that show a strong TC in the MDR. Models have forecasted many this season and ZERO have come into fruition.

As has been the case this season, we should wait till the wave reaches the islands where it'll likely find better conditions. Unfortunately, when waves are not developing in the MDR, the risks towards the CONUS increases.

How many EC ensemble members have this?

[Kingarabian]

Going to ignore any model depictions that show a strong TC in the MDR. Models have forecasted many this season and ZERO have come into fruition.

As has been the case this season, we should wait till the wave reaches the islands where it'll likely find better conditions. Unfortunately, when waves are not developing in the MDR, the risks towards the CONUS increases.

How many EC ensemble members have this?

There is pretty good EPS support for a TD within 10 days, but only a 30%-40% chance for a TS. We seen the EPS do the same with 99L before it became Gert.

[jason1912]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899799045899767808

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899799045899767808

At this time of year it's usually out to sea, no?

Of course that's if it develops quickly, if not then we may have a MDR cruiser.

Considering the state of the MDR I think we may have something on our hands.

[hd44]

Cv recurve.

[HURAKAN]

the track and intensity proposed by the EC is problematic because you shouldn't have a hurricane in the tropics with SST below 26C

[MetroMike]

the track and intensity proposed by the EC is problematic because you shouldn't have a hurricane in the tropics with SST below 26C

There are a bunch of rules being broken this season of shoulds and should nots. The experts will have many things to learn about this season once it is officially over Nov. 30.

[blp]

I wonder if this thread is becoming obsolete this year. I cannot even look at a model anymore in the short range with any confidence let alone long range.

So I have zero confidence on the hyperactive development being shown in the Eastern Atlantic by the models. I think if anything does happen it will be slow to develop which means more west with the low level flow.

[Hammy]

I wonder if this thread is becoming obsolete this year. I cannot even look at a model anymore in the short range with any confidence let alone long range.

So I have zero confidence on the hyperactive development being shown in the Eastern Atlantic by the models. I think if anything does happen it will be slow to develop which means more west with the low level flow.

We can add NAM to the pile, just as I thought it was showing promise as far as accuracy--latest run has Harvey reaching Cat 5 and 92L developing into a storm within 3-4 days--both of which I think have about a 1% chance of happening at most.

[tolakram]

The NAM is not designed to predict hurricanes. Give it a break.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/9 ... 4945875968


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[sma10]

Really nice looking wave just about to roll off the African coast. Looks like the GFS finally likes this one and develops it really quickly, but what a strange track. Basically ruler straight to the west, but at a snail's pace. I would normally say, ah its just the gfs, but after its performance with 92L I'm becoming a fan.

CMC develops similarly but much quicker pace. Takes it thru PR, Fwiw.

[tolakram]

It also pretty much maintains the same intensity throughout rather than blowing it up.