2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Better to go with ensembles then op models this far out. Encouraging signs surely!

EPS just keeps pumping Tc’s…

[skyline385]

The EPS in my opinion still needs to be taken with a grain of salt until more models join in (especially looking at the times its busted this season), looking at the operational run there is only a broad center of rotation leaving the African coast. Meanwhile most of the EPS' strongest systems seem to be forming of a wave not seen on the operational run located in the western MDR or overdone waves exiting the African coast as a Tropical storm.

[AnnularCane]

Better to go with ensembles then op models this far out. Encouraging signs surely!

EPS just keeps pumping Tc’s…

https://i.postimg.cc/wjS5fZRj/849-D8-C8-A-4-AB5-41-C3-B47-C-CF1-D91-FFFF22.png

https://i.postimg.cc/6QnrDcCL/DBFA4976-585-F-4984-AC47-6-FA5262-CA1-E9.png

Looks like it's trying to run through the whole list at once.

[jlauderdal]

Better to go with ensembles then op models this far out. Encouraging signs surely!

EPS just keeps pumping Tc’s…

https://i.postimg.cc/wjS5fZRj/849-D8-C8-A-4-AB5-41-C3-B47-C-CF1-D91-FFFF22.png

https://i.postimg.cc/6QnrDcCL/DBFA4976-585-F-4984-AC47-6-FA5262-CA1-E9.png

Climatology is about to score a win next week the hurricane season starts for the basin. Remember what wxman57 said a few weeks ago about aug 15th, here we are.

[WiscoWx02]

Better to go with ensembles then op models this far out. Encouraging signs surely!

EPS just keeps pumping Tc’s…

https://i.postimg.cc/wjS5fZRj/849-D8-C8-A-4-AB5-41-C3-B47-C-CF1-D91-FFFF22.png

https://i.postimg.cc/6QnrDcCL/DBFA4976-585-F-4984-AC47-6-FA5262-CA1-E9.png

Climatology is about to score a win next week the hurricane season starts for the basin. Remember what wxman57 said a few weeks ago about aug 15th, here we are.

We’ll see…I’m still not convinced at this point…too far out and not enough other model support. Wouldn’t be shocked if the signal fades next couple of runs given how things have been going as of late

[Steve]

Better to go with ensembles then op models this far out. Encouraging signs surely!

EPS just keeps pumping Tc’s…

https://i.postimg.cc/wjS5fZRj/849-D8-C8-A-4-AB5-41-C3-B47-C-CF1-D91-FFFF22.png

https://i.postimg.cc/6QnrDcCL/DBFA4976-585-F-4984-AC47-6-FA5262-CA1-E9.png

Climatology is about to score a win next week the hurricane season starts for the basin. Remember what wxman57 said a few weeks ago about aug 15th, here we are.

We’ll see…I’m still not convinced at this point…too far out and not enough other model support. Wouldn’t be shocked if the signal fades next couple of runs given how things have been going as of late

Haha. But you probably don’t want to put money on it. MJO has been delayed getting out the circle and now may not until close to the weekend. I wish the models were better. They get the general idea, but timing can change from run to run. Where it had been looking like we would already be in a favorable Phase by now, it’s going to be a few more days - maybe not ironically around August 20th. If so expect more than waves coming off Africa to watch.

[skyline385]

Climatology is about to score a win next week the hurricane season starts for the basin. Remember what wxman57 said a few weeks ago about aug 15th, here we are.

We’ll see…I’m still not convinced at this point…too far out and not enough other model support. Wouldn’t be shocked if the signal fades next couple of runs given how things have been going as of late

Haha. But you probably don’t want to put money on it. MJO has been delayed getting out the circle and now may not until close to the weekend. I wish the models were better. They get the general idea, but timing can change from run to run. Where it had been looking like we would already be in a favorable Phase by now, it’s going to be a few more days - maybe not ironically around August 20th. If so expect more than waves coming off Africa to watch.

If the EPS is to be believed the MJO is already there, it should however get very favourable going into next week.





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[SFLcane]

We’ll see…I’m still not convinced at this point…too far out and not enough other model support. Wouldn’t be shocked if the signal fades next couple of runs given how things have been going as of late

Haha. But you probably don’t want to put money on it. MJO has been delayed getting out the circle and now may not until close to the weekend. I wish the models were better. They get the general idea, but timing can change from run to run. Where it had been looking like we would already be in a favorable Phase by now, it’s going to be a few more days - maybe not ironically around August 20th. If so expect more than waves coming off Africa to watch.

If the EPS is to be believed the MJO is already there, it should however get very favourable going into next week.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/af8decb41288addf26370a41ae3ff595.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/96c30480f46e6dbfeee4fa67cc96dba4.jpg


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CCKW already passed - should be very favorable starting now. No more excuses for the basin

[skyline385]

Haha. But you probably don’t want to put money on it. MJO has been delayed getting out the circle and now may not until close to the weekend. I wish the models were better. They get the general idea, but timing can change from run to run. Where it had been looking like we would already be in a favorable Phase by now, it’s going to be a few more days - maybe not ironically around August 20th. If so expect more than waves coming off Africa to watch.

If the EPS is to be believed the MJO is already there, it should however get very favourable going into next week.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/af8decb41288addf26370a41ae3ff595.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/96c30480f46e6dbfeee4fa67cc96dba4.jpg


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CCKW already passed - should be very favorable starting now. No more excuses for the basin

Yea with that setup next week, if for whatever reason the basin doesn’t produce then some serious questions will have to be asked. The models should start lighting up soon.


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[Steve]

Unless it's absolute peak season, it's generally a 1-2 weeks after the passing that the atmosphere gets juiced. But the MJO itself at least as of the 00z runs, isn't out of the circle. Models aren't gospel from where they start, but they're usually on.

GEFS - crossing the line on the 19th @ Phase 1 on its way to Phase 2.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

NCEP CFS - messes around in the circle and crosses the line on the 21st @ Phase 1 on its way to Phase 2
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ncfs.shtml

JMA - crosses the line on the 18th @ Phase 1 in a rotation down to Phase 2 by the 23rd (backed up several days from what it had been showing)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

ECMF - similar to JMA, crosses the line on the 19th/20th in Phase 1, rotates into Phase 2 and jumps back in the circle. I will be watching to see if either JMA or EC gets this right or if one moves toward the other's solution. If JMA is right, there should be a couple week period of activity. If EC is right, maybe a flare up or two.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ecmf.shtml

BOMA/BOMM - Australian model should update later today

[WiscoWx02]

If the EPS is to be believed the MJO is already there, it should however get very favourable going into next week.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/af8decb41288addf26370a41ae3ff595.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220815/96c30480f46e6dbfeee4fa67cc96dba4.jpg


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CCKW already passed - should be very favorable starting now. No more excuses for the basin

Yea with that setup next week, if for whatever reason the basin doesn’t produce then some serious questions will have to be asked. The models should start lighting up soon.


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Yeah if we don’t start seeing things look better in the Atlantic this week, then a massive season bust is almost likely at that point. Either way though I think we are out of the woods for a highly active season. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a high impact season though.

[BobHarlem]

CCKW already passed - should be very favorable starting now. No more excuses for the basin

Yea with that setup next week, if for whatever reason the basin doesn’t produce then some serious questions will have to be asked. The models should start lighting up soon.


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Yeah if we don’t start seeing things look better in the Atlantic this week, then a massive season bust is almost likely at that point. Either way though I think we are out of the woods for a highly active season. Doesn’t mean it can’t be a high impact season though.

I think we will, a very outside chance of something popping up in the West Caribbean (Near belize) later this week too. After 98L I've been watching the waves a lot more closely since the models (other than icon) missed that one.

[Stormcenter]

I know these are old sayings in the tropical cyclone
world but are worth repeating now since the season has been slow to get started. It only takes one really bad one to ruin millions lives and it’s not the quantity but the quality of the storms that matters most.

[ConvergenceZone]

I know these are old sayings in the tropical cyclone
world but are worth repeating now since the season has been slow to get started. It only takes one really bad one to ruin millions lives and it’s not the quantity but the quality of the storms that matters most.

everyone knows that already though. But when a more active than normal season is predicted, it's usually talking about quantity, so many of us are doubting that the numbers are going to be as high as they are predicting.....But we'll see.....The next 2 weeks will tell ALOT one way or the other.

[ElectricStorm]

12z GFS back to showing MDR development

[cycloneye]

Wave emerges in latitud of Cabo Verde Islands.

[skyline385]

Still not looking very convincing for peak climo imo

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET once again has no TC in the basin through hour 144 (12Z on 8/21) fwiw.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

While everyone's focus is on the MDR in the long-range, closer in time there appears to be a modest signal for a possible Bay of Campeche/western Gulf spin up on the GEFS and EPS. We've seen how often these things are capable of pulling a fast one due to the local topography even with the limited real estate so I'd say it's worth keeping an eye on.

[ElectricStorm]

While everyone's focus is on the MDR in the long-range, closer in time there appears to be a modest signal for a possible Bay of Campeche/western Gulf spin up on the GEFS and EPS. We've seen how often these things are capable of pulling a fast one due to the local geography even with the limited real estate so I'd say it's worth keeping an eye on.
https://i.ibb.co/SVRn9WL/gefs-2022-08-15-12-Z-144-30-803-257-825-15-109-276-926-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png
https://i.ibb.co/Snp5d6j/ecens-2022-08-15-06-Z-144-30-803-257-825-15-109-276-926-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png

Yep that's the area that's had my attention on the models the last several days. Definitely potential for something to spin up there imo