ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

Eric Webb says El Niño is taking a siesta.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1675585845984899072

By this time in 2015 that Hovmoller diagram looked almost solid red in the nino region.Constant westerly wind anomalies. We were actually in one of the major WWB events around this time during that year.

[Kingarabian]

I don't know if we have some archived 2015 hovmollers but it was one long WWB from July to November.

[zzzh]

Here they are. Huge WWB across the Pacific in early July 2015.

[LarryWx]

At no surprise to me, the new BoM in 3.4 is significantly cooler in July and much cooler during Aug-Nov vs the prior run. July is now only at +1.5 vs +1.8 on the prior run. Aug/Sep/Oct are a whopping 0.6 cooler than the prior run while Nov is 0.7 cooler (+2.5 vs +3.2)!

Latest:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ocean/out ... ion=NINO34

[cycloneye]

This is interesting.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1675842109876625408

[LarryWx]

Today's weekly update of SSTa for Nino regions:

1+2: stayed at +2.9
3: stayed at +1.4
3.4: dropped from +1.0 to +0.9
4: dropped from +0.7 to +0.6

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has:

Niño 1+2 at +2.9C
Niño 3 at +1.4C
Niño 3.4 at +0.9C
NIño 4 at +0.6C

Whole update at link below:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[jconsor]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1675590068369498112[/Tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1675814539139350528[/Tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1675840726511280128[/Tweet]

[LarryWx]

 Nino 3.4 has warmed the last couple of days on all 3 datasets. However, Nino 3.4 is still not quite back to its early June highs on any of them. And Nino 4 is well below (0.2+) its late June highs. OTOH, Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are today at new highs on all 3 datasets:

Nino 1+2:

OISST: +3.4
CRW: +3.3
CDAS: +2.9

Nino 3:

OISST: +1.5   
CRW: +1.6
CDAS: +1.3

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1675934192247664642




Here is Dr Ben Noll's message.

As of early July, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain consistent with historical El Niño events that went on to become strong

However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a method of measuring El Niño's atmospheric expression, had a neutral three-month value of -0.3 from April-June.

At this time in 2015, the three-month SOI was -0.7. In 1997, it was -1.8. In 1982, it was -0.8. In 1972, it was also -0.8.

This indicates that the atmosphere hasn't yet established a "static-free" line of communication with the ocean! Until that happens, global weather patterns may not be persistently El Niño-like.

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1675934192247664642

Here is Dr Ben Noll's message.

As of early July, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain consistent with historical El Niño events that went on to become strong

However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a method of measuring El Niño's atmospheric expression, had a neutral three-month value of -0.3 from April-June.

At this time in 2015, the three-month SOI was -0.7. In 1997, it was -1.8. In 1982, it was -0.8. In 1972, it was also -0.8.

This indicates that the atmosphere hasn't yet established a "static-free" line of communication with the ocean! Until that happens, global weather patterns may not be persistently El Niño-like.

I have no idea from where Dr. Noll is getting his numbers! The April-June 2023 SOI was -7 rather than -0.3. Also, it was -9 for the same period in 2015, -19 in 1997, -9 in 1982, and -13 in 1972.

Monthly SOIs:
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt

[zzzh]

AMJ ONI up to 0.5.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1675934192247664642

Here is Dr Ben Noll's message.

As of early July, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain consistent with historical El Niño events that went on to become strong

However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a method of measuring El Niño's atmospheric expression, had a neutral three-month value of -0.3 from April-June.

At this time in 2015, the three-month SOI was -0.7. In 1997, it was -1.8. In 1982, it was -0.8. In 1972, it was also -0.8.

This indicates that the atmosphere hasn't yet established a "static-free" line of communication with the ocean! Until that happens, global weather patterns may not be persistently El Niño-like.

I have no idea from where Dr. Noll is getting his numbers! The April-June 2023 SOI was -7 rather than -0.3. Also, it was -9 for the same period in 2015, -19 in 1997, -9 in 1982, and -13 in 1972.

Monthly SOIs:
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt

I'd imagine he's using some kind of standardized value

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1675934192247664642

Here is Dr Ben Noll's message.

As of early July, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific remain consistent with historical El Niño events that went on to become strong

However, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), a method of measuring El Niño's atmospheric expression, had a neutral three-month value of -0.3 from April-June.

At this time in 2015, the three-month SOI was -0.7. In 1997, it was -1.8. In 1982, it was -0.8. In 1972, it was also -0.8.

This indicates that the atmosphere hasn't yet established a "static-free" line of communication with the ocean! Until that happens, global weather patterns may not be persistently El Niño-like.

I have no idea from where Dr. Noll is getting his numbers! The April-June 2023 SOI was -7 rather than -0.3. Also, it was -9 for the same period in 2015, -19 in 1997, -9 in 1982, and -13 in 1972.

Monthly SOIs:
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Sea ... 89Base.txt

I'd imagine he's using some kind of standardized value

Assuming that's the case, I'm not sure it jibes. For example, he said 2015/1982 were at -0.7/-0.8 vs -0.3 for 2023. This implies a large difference since 2015/1982 are over twice as negative as 2023. But the 2023 straight SOI was at -7 vs -9 for 2015/1982 meaning 2023 was only slightly less negative than 2015/1982.

[Kingarabian]

He probably mixed up the 30 day from last month which was near -0.3.

[Kingarabian]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1675842109876625408

I think its normal for OHC near Nino 4 and Nino 3.4 to fluctuate in an eastern based event. Biggest problem that I see is the wind setup over the equatorial Pacific. There's consistent below average trades in the EPAC and stronger trades in the CPAC. So it's not transferring the surface warm over the rest of the regions while also creating localized subsurface upwelling in the CPAC.

[LarryWx]

 The June ERSST for 3.4 came out at only 0.81. I say only 0.81 because that compares to the OISST for June calculating out to 0.93. For comparison, the June CDAS was near 0.78. So, ERSST was much closer to CDAS than OISST in June and is one reason I keep track of CDAS as kind of a lower boundary to where ERSST might be. By the way, the May ERSST (0.46) also was lower than the OISST (0.49). The May CDAS was ~0.39, meaning ERSST in this case was closer to OISST than CDAS in May.


Monthly ERSST:
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .ascii.txt

[LarryWx]

 The AMJ RONI came out to only +0.07 vs the ONI of +0.47.

[Ntxw]

Stalling/cooling of the ENSO regions in the cPac will continue. Stronger trades will commence east of the IDL as CCKW/MJO begins in the far WPAC. Will this be another head-fake WWB or can it progress and couple? It will only take one big burst to get the feedback going, the WPAC warm pool has cooled as in most Nino events.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1676334294271139843




Huh, interesting, it looks like Andy Hazelton still thinks a Super Nino is possible and is comparing what we have with 1997 at this point.