2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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SFLcane
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1361 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 20, 2019 7:34 pm

blp wrote::uarrow:

Here you go. You can get it at weathernerds. Very interesting Gator. I counted 8 members at one point and if you count the BOC that is 5 more.
https://i.ibb.co/Z6bhqjz/ecens-2019-10-20-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png


Nothing on GFS/GEFS or deterministic. :roll:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1362 Postby blp » Sun Oct 20, 2019 9:18 pm

SFLcane wrote:
blp wrote::uarrow:

Here you go. You can get it at weathernerds. Very interesting Gator. I counted 8 members at one point and if you count the BOC that is 5 more.
https://i.ibb.co/Z6bhqjz/ecens-2019-10-20-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png


Nothing on GFS/GEFS or deterministic. :roll:


FWIW the GEPS has some weak development. GFS has been pretty bad so far in that region so that it is not showing anything is not saying much.

Image
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1363 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 21, 2019 8:15 am

blp wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
blp wrote::uarrow:

Here you go. You can get it at weathernerds. Very interesting Gator. I counted 8 members at one point and if you count the BOC that is 5 more.
https://i.ibb.co/Z6bhqjz/ecens-2019-10-20-12-Z-240-50-258-0-350-MSLP-Surface-tracks-lows.png


Nothing on GFS/GEFS or deterministic. :roll:


FWIW the GEPS has some weak development. GFS has been pretty bad so far in that region so that it is not showing anything is not saying much.

https://i.ibb.co/mSkyC2k/gem-ememb-lowlocs-watl-25.png


Na i think the door is closing quickly if not already. EPS has nothing
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1364 Postby Bigwhitey » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:16 pm

Warm up the Fat lady? :cold:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1365 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 21, 2019 4:51 pm

Per the latest RMM plots, most of the models are keeping the MJO in the circle with some showing it eventually re-emerging over the WPAC.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1366 Postby artist » Wed Oct 23, 2019 4:57 pm

There must be something showing on the models

Image
They give it a 30% chance within 5 days
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1367 Postby canefan » Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:27 pm

Looking pretty healthy right now. You can see the low level clouds rotating into a COC and a hot tower firing what appears to be near the center...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1368 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 30, 2019 3:58 pm

Nothing in the GFS through mid November - probably time to say we're done for this year...
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1369 Postby AnnularCane » Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:50 pm

Frank2 wrote:Nothing in the GFS through mid November - probably time to say we're done for this year...



Olga, Pablo, and Rebekah want to talk to you. 8-)
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1370 Postby aspen » Wed Oct 30, 2019 6:56 pm

AnnularCane wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Nothing in the GFS through mid November - probably time to say we're done for this year...



Olga, Pablo, and Rebekah want to talk to you. 8-)


I didn’t even know Rebekah formed until you pointed it out. They’re forming like roaches out there!
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1371 Postby Jr0d » Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:22 am

Frank2 wrote:Nothing in the GFS through mid November - probably time to say we're done for this year...


I would bet that we will have another GoM storm. The water is still warm enough. The GFS was wrong about countless phantom storms in the long ranger so I don't trust it when it shows nothing either.

We have yet to get a cold front in Key West. It still fes like late September here. That makes me believe there is still a high chance of more GoM activity.

. .
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1372 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:17 am

Jr0d wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Nothing in the GFS through mid November - probably time to say we're done for this year...


I would bet that we will have another GoM storm. The water is still warm enough. The GFS was wrong about countless phantom storms in the long ranger so I don't trust it when it shows nothing either.

We have yet to get a cold front in Key West. It still fes like late September here. That makes me believe there is still a high chance of more GoM activity.

. .


:craz: HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

Actually, this past GFS 6Z GFS model run shows a 1006 low developing in the MDR around 45W at 318 hr.'s. It remains in the MDR and deepens to 1004 mb. Here's the best part. Does this low runner appear to approach the Windward Islands? Not quite. It tracks..... EAST and eventually approach's the Cape Verde Islands. Before you laugh while stating "GFS 318 hr. forecast is fantasy-land" or "just another long range GFS ghost storm", keep this in mind. Mid to long range GFS and CMC model forecasts have for a long time earned the reputation for developing erroneous oceanic (intentionally not using the word "tropical") low pressure areas. So, why not simply toss out this long range "blip" as nothing other then just more long range hyperbole?? Because doing so would underestimate NHC's increasing proclivity to name oceanic cyclones. It's for no other reason that I won't be at all surprised if T.S. Vance is eventually tagged and closes out this "over-active" season somewhere around the December 20th time-frame. Then again, I suppose one should not rule out the possibility of also adding a "Wendy" to the 2019 Atlantic Seasonal Review either. Careful post-season analysis could easily uncover at least one more cyclone that was somehow missed during it's 6-12 hr. lifespan while perhaps just north of Guyana or possibly directly over Lake Okeechobee sometime this past March or April :cheesy:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1373 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:26 pm

GFS is in the spirit today with a spooky ghost. :lol:

Image

:spam:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1374 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:28 pm

:uarrow: Nothing like a GFS phantom on Halloween!
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1375 Postby Jr0d » Thu Oct 31, 2019 11:51 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:GFS is in the spirit today with a spooky ghost. :lol:

[url]https://i.ibb.co/VgWkwLs/gfs-ir-watl-64.png [/url]

:spam:


Well that is a new phantom.

While I do think a late GoM / West Carib storm is likely this year I would like to think it will be minimal and not a beast like that.....time will tell...tick tock tick tock...
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1376 Postby chris_fit » Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:02 am

06Z GFS says Halloween not over

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1377 Postby SFLcane » Fri Nov 01, 2019 8:37 am

chris_fit wrote:06Z GFS says Halloween not over

https://i.imgur.com/r67f51R.png


Sure...The GFS will keep at it through Feb at this point. This is pure ghost model bias. :roll:
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1378 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Nov 07, 2019 11:56 am

There is a wave located at 11.38 west and 43.91 west, I do see it moving into shear, any model support for this wave.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1379 Postby Steve » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:07 pm

Frank2 wrote:Nothing in the GFS through mid November - probably time to say we're done for this year...


lmao

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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#1380 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:24 pm

The FV3-GFS was again upgraded.

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