2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[Hammy]

I think MarioProtVI was alluding to the subtropical warm pool near the Northeastern United States, which tends to induce sinking air farther south.

There's a region of cool anomalies (-.5 to -1.5) between the MDR and the warm pool though. Might reduce the impact of such an effect.

Not if the subtropical warm pool I mentioned is at least as warm as or warmer than the MDR/Caribbean, thereby inducing sinking air to the south.

Compare with 2017 the warm pool was much more pronounced--temperatures at the moment are not only cooler anomalies through most of the subtropics, but also cooler as far as raw temperature.

[BYG Jacob]

I have to ask again, have the people saying we’ve gotten weak garbage actually looked at the storms we have gotten so far? Nearly every storm has over performed, and they were all fully tropical and decently organized.

[Kingarabian]

If modeled storms bust or form significantly weaker -- that's when there's a cause for concern (ehm EPAC). So far that has not been the case this season and actually, some systems over performed.

[tolakram]

To early to tell anything IMO. I don't see any longer term signal that would make me think expected activity will change.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Given the rate at which the Atlantic has been spitting out weak, short lived storms within the past week or so I am currently questioning if 2020 will be as hyperactive as initially predicted. One reason why I believe this is when looking at the current SSTA setup, there is a large warm blob right next to Africa which is considerably warmer then the MDR, along with cool anomalies both north and to the south of it. I am starting to think that if this persists, this may offset the otherwise favorable conditions in the MDR and actually suppress activity even if the MDR is a bit above average. 2013 had that warm blob that close too and look what happened. Even if this does not come to fruition, 2020 may end up with a hurricane minority similar to 2011 and 2019, with totals probably more close to say 19-7-4 which is a bit sick.
https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data/5km/v3.1/image/daily/ssta/gif/2020/coraltemp5km_ssta_20200704_large.gif

First off, that cool water near the equator in the GOG off the coast of Africa is a positive. The land in the Sahel gets very hot and rises. The cool moist air over water rushes in and causes convergence (thunderstorms). The bigger the temperature gradient the stronger this becomes. These thunderstorms in turn help the AEWs become more robust.
As for the MDR being warm, there is a distinct warm under cool under warm signal which is favorable. I heard someone say the water off the east coast being warmer than the MDR...no, not in ASO. Right now, things look like they will be quite favorable.

[EquusStorm]

"2004 is going to bust completely! Almost the last week of July and NOTHING."

"2010 is boring... except for Alex we got two weak anemic storms and nearly halfway into August..."

"2017 is gonna be pathetic... almost August and the lowest ACE for the first 5 storms EVER with pitifully weak nearly instantly dying storms in the MDR!"

Conversely, 1997 and 2013, but should have neither an exceptionally strong El Nino nor a random shutdown of the thermohaline circulation this year

Even last year the season cancel argument was going strong a week or two before a 185mph category five scoured a good chunk of the Bahamas clean... not that last year had many hurricanes but hey, we wound up with multiple category fives in a season that passed the August halfway point with just two brief named storms aaand wound up with eighteen. Maybe we're hyperactive, maybe we're not, but everything that's had even a vauge notion of developing this year has overperfomed and we're setting records in the first week of July so that's not a fun way to start...

Healthy debate is awesome and all perspectives are important but it's hard to make truly definitive judgments so early on one way or another

[FireRat]

Yup, lol
Never judge a book by its cover, and June to mid-August IS the cover. This season is eerily reminiscent of 2017, plus its popping up storms no matter the conditions. Almost every disturbance is organizing into something this year, and all the storms have been 'weak' because of where they formed and either how close they were to land or how far north they were.

All these early game systems are putting us high up the Alphabet come peak season so I'm afraid the 'I curse' and 'M monster' will be likely to repeat once September rolls around. The Fall months (Sept - Nov) are likely going to be hell.

[chaser1]

"2004 is going to bust completely! Almost the last week of July and NOTHING."

"2010 is boring... except for Alex we got two weak anemic storms and nearly halfway into August..."

"2017 is gonna be pathetic... almost August and the lowest ACE for the first 5 storms EVER with pitifully weak nearly instantly dying storms in the MDR!"

Conversely, 1997 and 2013, but should have neither an exceptionally strong El Nino nor a random shutdown of the thermohaline circulation this year

Even last year the season cancel argument was going strong a week or two before a 185mph category five scoured a good chunk of the Bahamas clean... not that last year had many hurricanes but hey, we wound up with multiple category fives in a season that passed the August halfway point with just two brief named storms aaand wound up with eighteen. Maybe we're hyperactive, maybe we're not, but everything that's had even a vauge notion of developing this year has overperfomed and we're setting records in the first week of July so that's not a fun way to start

True. Whether or not one (including myself) would have qualified each and every named T.S. thus far this year, the very fact that conditions appear somehow conducive enough for nearly every "basin blob" to want to try and develop..... is seriously a bit concerning. I'm afraid that Hurricane Forecasters this year will find themselves having to bring their pillows to work with them if they're going to get much sleep at all this Aug-Oct period. Very contrary to those few years where everyone is scratching their heads watching disturbance after disturbance seemingly traverse the basin while some atmospheric dynamic or another seemingly squelches cyclogenesis.

[SFLcane]

Active MDR trend continues on the ECMWF out today.

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1280130858570125313

[NDG]

Active MDR trend continues on the ECMWF out today.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1280130858570125313

As if the Euro forecasts a strong subtropical Atlantic ridge keeping the tropical waves, disturbances, etc from recurving.

[toad strangler]

Active MDR trend continues on the ECMWF out today.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1280130858570125313

As if the Euro forecasts a strong subtropical Atlantic ridge keeping the tropical waves, disturbances, etc from recurving.

??

[SFLcane]

Active MDR trend continues on the ECMWF out today.

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1280130858570125313

As if the Euro forecasts a strong subtropical Atlantic ridge keeping the tropical waves, disturbances, etc from recurving.

Yea, looks like a strong ridge.

[cycloneye]

SFLcane ,and is not a long range forecast for JAS from Febuary but is from now so it has more meat of credibility and yes I have that expression on those eyes.

[SFLcane]

SFLcane ,and is not a long range forecast for JAS from Febuary but is from now so it has more meat of credibility and yes I have that expression on those eyes.

Hi Luis, indeed concerning let’s see how things evolve.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 11329?s=20

ECMWF Seasonal increased from 80% of normal to 100% of normal ACE. FWIW it also predicted approximately 100% of normal in 2017.

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1280135661987811329?s=20

ECMWF Seasonal increased from 80% of normal to 100% of normal ACE. FWIW it also predicted approximately 100% of normal in 2017.

Could see a VERY active ASO

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1280135661987811329?s=20

ECMWF Seasonal increased from 80% of normal to 100% of normal ACE. FWIW it also predicted approximately 100% of normal in 2017.

[USTropics]

As always caution with the exact details of these forecasts (these are 14-21 day forecasts), but the CFS has been progressively getting more aggressive towards the end of July with some type of AEW finding its way into the GOM:

[SFLcane]

MDR should continue to warm in a big way.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 34784?s=21

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1280196564082884608