2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1294690792288780290

[AnnularCane]

And this, this is your regularly scheduled yearly sudden global model activity explosion right on time on August 15th.

It took a few years, but I think I've finally learned pretty well not to believe the seemingly yearly claim of "the models show nothing through the rest of August, season cancel."

I think.

[blp]

:dont:


https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1294690792288780290?s=20

Interesting that is the wave I think CMC latches onto and develops in the Carribean then hitting west Florida.

[Hammy]

And this, this is your regularly scheduled yearly sudden global model activity explosion right on time on August 15th.

And also a reminder that the CMC has vastly outperformed the GFS in terms of genesis this year

Given the pattern it keeps generating, the GFS seems like it's perpetually under the impression that it's still early June.

[aspen]

Yep, the models are finally starting to pick up on enhanced development.

12z CMC develops the central MDR wave into a strong TS that goes through the Caribbean, into the Gulf, and makes landfall in Florida in 9-10 days. It also develops the African coast wave into a hurricane in the NE Caribbean, with development starting in about a week.

12z ICON shows a weak TC from the first wave, but it has the second wave move too fast to develop.

In the latest HWRF-P run for Josephine, you can see the first wave develop into a weak TC in the middle of the Caribbean in 4-5 days.

[SFLcane]

Long range cmc portraying a Irma type track.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show nothing like what the CMC shows. Both show no development. Think something is off with that 12Z run of the CMC. Notice the 00Z run showed nothing either. There looks to be too much shear still for any significant development.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show nothing like what the CMC shows. Both show no development. Think something is off with that 12Z run of the CMC. Notice the 00Z run showed nothing either. There looks to be too much shear still for any significant development.

if the euro and gfs were right, we wouldn't have had half the storms so far this season.

i highly doubt late august will be THAT unfavorable.

remember that last week the models showed a major epac outbreak with the atlantic completely shut down.
currently, the atlantic has 2 named storms with 0 in the epac...

[Stormcenter]

So true about EURO and GFS, 2020 has not been kind
to them.

The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show nothing like what the CMC shows. Both show no development. Think something is off with that 12Z run of the CMC. Notice the 00Z run showed nothing either. There looks to be too much shear still for any significant development.

if the euro and gfs were right, we wouldn't have had half the storms so far this season.

i highly doubt late august will be THAT unfavorable.

remember that last week the models showed a major epac outbreak with the atlantic completely shut down.
currently, the atlantic has 2 named storms with 0 in the epac...

[SFLcane]

The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show nothing like what the CMC shows. Both show no development. Think something is off with that 12Z run of the CMC. Notice the 00Z run showed nothing either. There looks to be too much shear still for any significant development.

I would not discount the cmc. Shear should not be a problem near the Caribbean as Levi alluded to in his tweet. If there is something off it’s likely the gfs regarding upper level conditions. Not much sign of the hopeful trof atleast on this particularly long range run.

[cycloneye]

The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show nothing like what the CMC shows. Both show no development. Think something is off with that 12Z run of the CMC. Notice the 00Z run showed nothing either. There looks to be too much shear still for any significant development.

I recommend you to read the post TheAustinMan made.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=121131&p=2829970#p2829970

[gatorcane]

I would interpret the CMC as it appears conditions might becoming a bit more favorable for Atlantic MDR development but we are not quite there yet.

Meanwhile even the Euro is keeping lower pressures over on the EPAC side like the GFS:

[Ubuntwo]

I would interpret the CMC as it appears conditions might becoming a bit more favorable for Atlantic MDR development but we are not quite there yet.

Meanwhile even the Euro is keeping lower pressures over on the EPAC side like the GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/dQp9qYf8/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-epac-10.png

Euro does have a couple points of interest though, ending the run with an MDR TD.

[EquusStorm]

If conditions were as favorable in the EPac as the GFS keeps screaming, we'd have had more than a struggling dying tropical depression and an Invest with great opportunity degrading into slop ongoing the last few days

GFS could certainly be right about 95E and probably will be but hey, something something stopped clock/blind squirrel

[Ubuntwo]

buckle up folks

[sma10]

The 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS show nothing like what the CMC shows. Both show no development. Think something is off with that 12Z run of the CMC. Notice the 00Z run showed nothing either. There looks to be too much shear still for any significant development.

if the euro and gfs were right, we wouldn't have had half the storms so far this season.

i highly doubt late august will be THAT unfavorable.

remember that last week the models showed a major epac outbreak with the atlantic completely shut down.
currently, the atlantic has 2 named storms with 0 in the epac...

I think we're approaching the time where over-dependence on the GFS for genesis will need to be scrapped

[Kingarabian]

Long range cmc portraying a Irma type track.

[url]https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/15/6d9f90de70bc82980298ea0a5f611666-full.gif[url]

Pretty believable IMO. Atlantic "switch" usually flips to "On" in that time frame. Even if the GFS and Euro don't show it, the CMC has become a solid model and I think the GFS and Euro will eventually show it.

[NDG]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744281635461136495/ecens_2020-08-15-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
buckle up folks

Indeed, as promised by all the signs we’ve been looking at.

[SFLcane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/289981599448039425/744281635461136495/ecens_2020-08-15-12Z_240_50_258_0_350_MSLP_Surface_tracks_lows.png
buckle up folks

My friends the flip is just around the corner! Here we go.

[gfsperpendicular]

Long range cmc portraying a Irma type track.

[url]https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/15/6d9f90de70bc82980298ea0a5f611666-full.gif[url]

Pretty believable IMO. Atlantic "switch" usually flips to "On" in that time frame. Even if the GFS and Euro don't show it, the CMC has become a solid model and I think the GFS and Euro will eventually show it.

This happened with Gonzalo, right? I definitely hesitate to throw away the CMC this year.