The Official 2010 Season Cancel Thread (NO MAJOR LANDFALLS!

[cycloneye]

There is no excuse now that is August. I cant believe 2010 is still waiting to see its third named storm already in August, which means the season is a big failure.

[lebron23]

this season=epic fail

[SoupBone]

There is no excuse now that is August. I cant believe 2010 is still waiting to see its third named storm already in August, which means the season is a big failure.

While calling the season a bust already would be ridiculous it is interesting that this season has been so strange. Oh and the Gov did in fact turn the GoM wave machine off...I'm in my 17 foot skiff right now pulling up large GoM Tarpon. I'm having a blast!

[Brent]

Colin is another waste. This season SUCKS. Season cancel!

[hurricaneCW]

This season reminds of last year all over again. It sucks ass. The massive SAL outbreaks and the widespread TUTT's are ridiculous. This is August, ha, more like June.

[ConvergenceZone]

Colin is another waste. This season SUCKS. Season cancel!

hopefully in a little over 3 weeks when we get to September, the season will get going.....

I just don't buy this "the floodgates will open by the middle of August" that people have been saying for the past month...The middle of August is only
a week and 1/2 away. If I'm wrong, feel free to serve me up the biggest plate of Crow you can find...... Watch, now people will start saying, "wait until the end of August"... lol...I can almost becha....

edit: just to let ya know, I'm saying the above in kind smart alec humor. Don't read too much into it..

[hurricaneCW]

I go on winter threads sometimes during the winter. When there's no cold air or snow, people always say "oh it will come in 2 weeks". 2 weeks later, same weather pattern. I'm starting to feel this season will be going the same route. "Oh don't worry it's quiet now but it will be active in 2 weeks".

Then 2 weeks pass. Somebody else goes "oh the season is just beginning, don't worry give it another 2 weeks".

By that time it's early September and we still have nothing. "Oh the MJO is finally arriving, expect it to get really active by mid September".

That's how you get seasons like 2006 and 2009. Honestly if nothing good happens (and by good I mean non Bonnie/Connie type storms) in 2 weeks from now (Around August 15-17th) and the models show nothing on the horizon or the Atlantic remains very unfavorable, then this season will be just like 2006/2009.

The good news if that happened is that it would make for an interesting case study for future seasons. How the Atlantic failed so miserably despite every indication that it would be hyperactive. How the eastern Pacific received higher ACE than we did in a moderate La Nina. The headline "Why 2010 was predicted to be hyperactive, but turned out to be a DUD?".

I know everything is a bit extreme, but honestly that's what we're heading into.

[KWT]

Actually things are about to become much more favourable....whilst Colin is struggling right now it did form which means conditions are easing up. The MJO is forecasted to steadily become more favourable for the Atlantic in the next 5-10 days and is already marginally favourable.

Once again I'll bring up TWO seasons that I always bring up:

1998:

C storm was on the 21st of August...

1961:

C storm was on 3rd September...yes that was CARLA...

I mean goodness me we could easily still have a horrid season even if we get nothing else till September, as 1961 proved.

Hurricanecw...seriously...conditions are going to improve, and lets not forget, 3NS at this stage is ABOVE average and on par with 2007 at this stage, which had 15NS...though that season was dominanted by the TUTT.

[ConvergenceZone]

KWT, but will all of the TULLS and shear still be there when the MJO becomes favorable? The MJO may become favorable, but I'm thinking of the other inhibiting factors that seem to be ripping systems apart...

[KWT]

Probably will be yeah, I think we have to wait for something to shift the pattern...

However this season looking back in hindsight should have NEVER been ramped up so much...I threw away the simple fact that no stronger La Nina has ever gone above 15NS and probably for good reason....most end up between 12-14NS and I think probably this year maybe the same.

2007 may not be a bad year to compare...

BUT all I'll say is mod/strong La Ninas only rarely get much before 15th August, so with the fact we've had storm C (and I think theres a good chance at getting another in 7 days) means we are ahead of the normal Climo of such seasons.

[hurricaneCW]

Don't forget that Bonnie and Carla could have both been easily not named. There was barely enough support for an upgrade to a TS from both of them. Colin, according to the other thread, may not have even had a LLC or a closed circulation. The only storm that I believe was a storm for obvious reasons was Alex. I'm sure we could get 12-14 named storms if the NHC decides to name any pitiful disturbance that will die off in 24-48 hours a storm, but that would not be considered an active season.

I'll wait two weeks to see what will happen, but I'm really beginning to doubt this season's supposed above average level of activity. Clearly, the water temperatures didn't make any difference. The strong Azores high/SAL and the persistent TUTT's/ULL's, lack of MJO definitely did.

[KWT]

Nearly every single season has several of these type of storms, take a look at history, and you'll see quite a few seasons have several such systems.

The TUTT is an issue though and the problem is the E.coast troughing is going to lift any system into that TUTT....however anything that gets past it probably will have a very good shot at developing by the 15th August looking at the change in the MJO...

Fact is...we ARE on the C storm...whether you think it was/wasn't deserved is frankly irrelevant, its the NHC that obviously makes the call, I'm pretty certain most seasons have 1/2 or more storms that are debateable....Bonnie would have been a TS even back in the 1800s due to the location, Colin argueably is a little different but given it was upgraded via Sat.imagery and Dvorak, that too probably would have been upgraded from the 60s onwards as well given its held itself for a while (granted its a pathetic excuse for a storm, as was Bonnie!)

We ARE above average, not sure why people aren't seeming to understand that at the moment....we also had a hurricane with the pressure that would probably usually be a major hurricane, 95L probably was a TD, TD2 could have *easily* been upgraded to a TS due to recon finding the winds and then we'd be looking at 4 NS right now...

[ConvergenceZone]

Probably will be yeah, I think we have to wait for something to shift the pattern...

However this season looking back in hindsight should have NEVER been ramped up so much...I threw away the simple fact that no stronger La Nina has ever gone above 15NS and probably for good reason....most end up between 12-14NS and I think probably this year maybe the same.

2007 may not be a bad year to compare...

BUT all I'll say is mod/strong La Ninas only rarely get much before 15th August, so with the fact we've had storm C (and I think theres a good chance at getting another in 7 days) means we are ahead of the normal Climo of such seasons.

I think you hit the nail on the head KWT. They WAY WAY WAY WAY(Emphasis on the word WAY) overhyped this season. They made this season sound like it was going to be a monster with nonstop activity right on through the whole season. I think that's why you are seeing alot of these type of posts such as mine and HurricaneCW's.......When the hype is this strong, It's got to walk the talk....

[hurricaneCW]

I agree with the crazy hyping. JB and all other news outlets were saying this season would be another 2005. The forecast went as high as 23 storms, which I've never seen. So even if the season ends up wit 12-14 storms, which is above average, it would be a complete and utter bust.

[thetruesms]

Here we go, getting all serious in our bombastic, over-the-top thread again

[KWT]

Indeed, sadly the agencies appear to have possibly shown a gross misunderstanding of what actually occurs when the La Nina gets too strong...look back if you can through the ENSO thread back in the early Spring and see what I was mentioning about what normally happens in such seasons.

Still think this one could be a biggie though not for the numbers...it seems.

Actually we are ahead of where I was thinking we would be at this stage, I was thinking maybe 1/0/0/ at this point to be honest once I knew this La Nina was really ramping up into moderate.

[ConvergenceZone]

I agree with the crazy hyping. JB and all other news outlets were saying this season would be another 2005. The forecast went as high as 23 storms, which I've never seen. So even if the season ends up wit 12-14 storms, which is above average, it would be a complete and utter bust.

Well from a tracking purpose, I'd be fine with 12 to 14 storms, but it would be a bust as far as the overhyping is concerned....
It's funny you mention 2005, because I remembered as the season was starting, there was a segment on either CNN or Fox, that started off with a newscaster saying, "Remember 2005?" and then he goes on talking about a forecasted monster season, and they were playing spooky musical soundtrack while showing sat pics of various storms..."....

[ConvergenceZone]

Here we go, getting all serious in our bombastic, over-the-top thread again

Hehe, and you can thank the news channels for that. For they are the experts on the bombastic and over the top.....

[KWT]

I agree with the crazy hyping. JB and all other news outlets were saying this season would be another 2005. The forecast went as high as 23 storms, which I've never seen. So even if the season ends up wit 12-14 storms, which is above average, it would be a complete and utter bust.

I'm not a big fan of NS anyway, as I've said its the ACE thats key, and could still quite easily see a large total with that respect to match the forecasts.

Still, that TUTT needs to get way out of the way in the next 15-30 days if we are to have a shot at getting close to the hyperactive ranking.

[thetruesms]

Here we go, getting all serious in our bombastic, over-the-top thread again

Hehe, and you can thank the news channels for that. For they are the experts on the bombastic and over the top.....

I will have to remind my friends on the broadcast side of that, just for giggles