Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

#141 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:34 pm

Soon to be 91L probably.

And many have feared the name Emily - first monster of the season?

#142 Postby **AdamFirst** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:37 pm

Any model support for this yet?

#143 Postby **expat2carib** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:41 pm

Hi crownweather,

See you are online watching this one! Looking forwards to your analysis on this for tomorrow!

Really appreciate your site.

Gustywind · #144 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 7:54 pm

With a so moist and very large enveloppe around this twave, this system should have weapons to fight against any the dry air intrusion?! Dry air ahead does not seems so intense, so let's wait and see.

blp · #145 Postby **blp** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:05 pm

Not bad at all...

#146 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:12 pm

Yes it is on its way to an invest for sure. I would give it 20% right now as well.

Looking at the 18Z GFS 500MB flow, subtropical ridging is strong albeit it has some times when it is broken. For example, check out the 500MB flow at 132 hours.

Notice the X in the Eastern Caribbean. That is where the GFS thinks this system will be but it is a shallow system. A deeper system would almost certainly get pulled more WNW or NW and not traverse the Caribbean:

In fact the ECMWF 12Z shows this nicely with even a weaker system, it has it headed towards a weakness at 144 hours which would move it through the Northern Leewards and near Puerto Rico, a deeper system maybe even a bit north of that:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-op ... =Animation

#147 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:14 pm

blp wrote:Not bad at all...

Wow,I am a little surprised on how well the circulation looks like at this initial stage.

#148 Postby **HurricaneBrain** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:26 pm

Looks like a winner! Definitely an invest soon!

#149 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:28 pm

Probabilities for development increasing.

#150 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:46 pm

This is pretty much on its way to being 91L. There is a well defined LLC present and as some of you have pointed out already, there is quite a large moist envelope surrounding this system. I think this will be more than sufficient enough for this system to fight off any dry air intrusion as it traverses over the open Atlantic.

This indeed definitely has the potential to be the first significant tropical cyclone this season and a true Cape Verde storm at that in the coming days. Potentially some interesting days ahead monitoring this one for sure.

Miami Storm Tracker · #151 Postby **Miami Storm Tracker** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 8:58 pm

blp wrote:Not bad at all...

Hi Brian,

Guess I missed you, but I was waching this yesterday had some nice blow up to it. Then today seemed to die down, but now kicking up again tonight. Very impressed with the counter clock wise flow so early on.

Annie Oakley · #152 Postby **Annie Oakley** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:13 pm

What are coordinates again please? Thanks in advance..looks like something good to track.....

#153 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:21 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:What are coordinates again please? Thanks in advance..looks like something good to track.....

The low was at 8 PM EDT at 8N-38W.

#154 Postby **northjaxpro** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:24 pm

Annie Oakley wrote:What are coordinates again please? Thanks in advance..looks like something good to track.....

A quick snippet from the TWD at 8 p.m. from NHC

BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSING ON A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 8N 38W. AN AREA OF INCREASED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
ALSO NOTED.

1008 mb Low analyzed at 8 degrees N, 38 degrees W.

Aric Dunn · #155 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:30 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:What are coordinates again please? Thanks in advance..looks like something good to track.....

The low was at 8 PM EDT at 8N-38W.

This was the whole point I was trying to get across all day. the circulation is already well on its way. .

Aric Dunn · #156 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:36 pm

And the convective burst I mentioned would happen tonight and tomorrow seems to in progress near where the estimates of the developing LLC.

#157 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 9:43 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:And the convective burst I mentioned would happen tonight and tomorrow seems to in progress near where the estimates of the developing LLC.

What do you think of that ASCAT pass showing a well defined circulation on this stage?

Gustywind · #158 Postby **Gustywind** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:16 pm

#159 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:24 pm

latest infrared

Weatherfreak000 · #160 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Thu Jul 28, 2011 10:25 pm

How is this not 91L? Somebody must be sleeping on the job...lol.

Pouch P10L with low in Central Atlantic- (Is invest 91L)

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