Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[floridasun78]

tropical moisture no were seen in carribbean it very dry their saying here that we see moisture coming from carribbean by tue i dont see moisture in nw carribbean yet

[Aric Dunn]

The euro has a very interesting solution. develops a east pac system brings it north in the boc then energy from the western carrib comes into play and creates very large gyrie...

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

[gatorcane]

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The system the 12 GFS operations shows develops out at around 192 hours which is 8 days from now - a weak low in the NW Caribbean. Looking at the 200MB streamline analysis (image below at 168 hours) around that timeframe shows alot of west to southwest shear over the Northern Caribbean, Southern Gulf, Florida, and the Bahamas. The system would likely be quite sheared anyway, typical of systems that form this time of year in the NW Caribbean.

Overall model support if you take into account the ECMWF, FIM, and CMC from the past week of model runs continues to be quite lackluster for any organized system to develop in the Western Caribbean through early June and I don't see any catayst that can create such a system. So at this time predicting no development in the Western Caribbean through the first week of June.

[floridasun78]

model not taking account on shear that very high only taking account of Madden–Julian oscillation in nw Caribbean

[Alyono]

model not taking account on shear that very high only taking account of Madden–Julian oscillation in nw Caribbean

The models most certainly consider shear. The GFS, EC, etc are fully dynamical models, so shear is naturally included

[ronjon]

The system the 12 GFS operations shows develops out at around 192 hours which is 8 days from now - a weak low in the NW Caribbean. Looking at the 200MB streamline analysis (image below at 168 hours) around that timeframe shows alot of west to southwest shear over the Northern Caribbean, Southern Gulf, Florida, and the Bahamas. The system would likely be quite sheared anyway, typical of systems that form this time of year in the NW Caribbean.

Overall model support if you take into account the ECMWF, FIM, and CMC from the past week of model runs continues to be quite lackluster for any organized system to develop in the Western Caribbean through early June and I don't see any catayst that can create such a system. So at this time predicting no development in the Western Caribbean through the first week of June.

Actually I disagree GC. GFS and other models have shown a fairly persistent monsoon trough setting up east-west along the western caribbean and greater antilles late this week. The GFS develops low pressure along the western end of the trough aided by strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard. I think some sort of development is likely but will be slow to occur as any low pressure will be broad to start and eventually will have to detach itself from the trough. Latest 06z GFS does develop a 999 mb low in the eastern GOM - but this is out 10 days and much can (will) change till then. Still with the rather impressive trough setting up, I think the odds of something spinning up are greater than 50-50.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=wnatl&param=10m_wnd_precip&cycle=06&image=gfs%2F06%2Fgfs_wnatl_240_10m_wnd_precip.gif

Development also supported by 00z GFS ensemble.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemble500mbHGHTtropical252.gif

[WeatherGuesser]

I hope something fires in the Caribbean next week ...

I hope nothing develops all season that puts anyone at risk of damage or injury.

[N2FSU]

Looks interesting for my cruise departing Saturday June 1 out of Tampa. Stops in Grand Cayman Monday and Cozumel Tuesday. Bring the Dramamine and Phenergan!

[cycloneye]

The runs of some models revive this system (Hurricane Alma) on early June in 1966 with this track. Of course I am not saying it may be a carbon copy if and is a big if at this point that something develops.

[SouthDadeFish]

One possibility is if Invest 92E develops it could then move northward and transfer its moisture to the Western Carib/BoC like the GFS shows. However, there is still a lot of disagreement among the main models with what is going to happen the medium range. The GFS has showed some version of this monsoonal-like genesis for at least the past 3 runs.

[cycloneye]

Here is a brief discussion about this by Dr Jeff Masters:

In the Atlantic, the models are depicting high wind shear through June 1 over the majority of the regions we typically see May tropical cyclone development--the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF models are showing a decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean after June 1, which would argue for an increased chance of tropical storm development then (though wind shear forecasts more than 7 days in advance are highly unreliable.)

[psyclone]

I hope something fires in the Caribbean next week ...

I hope nothing develops all season that puts anyone at risk of damage or injury.

Well I love observing systems from their formative stages to maturity. I love the weather. it doesn't care what I or anyone else wishes. No need to continually beat this dead horse. Still hopeful we can squeeze out a moisture laden clunker to dump on us. we are really drying out after April's beneficial rains around these parts.

[Aric Dunn]

One possibility is if Invest 92E develops it could then move northward and transfer its moisture to the Western Carib/BoC like the GFS shows. However, there is still a lot of disagreement among the main models with what is going to happen the medium range. The GFS has showed some version of this monsoonal-like genesis for at least the past 3 runs.

yeah I mentioned that yesterday, as that is what the 12z euro was trying to do. looking at the area today and the western carrib it appears a BOC transfer is a good possibility. not a intact system the energy.

[NDG]

I get the feeling now this will be or could be one of those threads that will have like 100 pages before something finally gets its act together. Cyclones that form out of monsoon troughs take forever to get going. Both the GFS and Euro show a large and broad circulation for a few days.

[SouthFloridian92]

Something may not even happen at all. Like a big anticipation that goes out with a small flame. Time will tell what happens.

[chaser1]

I get the feeling now this will be or could be one of those threads that will have like 100 pages before something finally gets its act together. Cyclones that form out of monsoon troughs take forever to get going. Both the GFS and Euro show a large and broad circulation for a few days.

I believe that whatever soupy mess that might settle in late this week or perhaps next, could at best result in a short lived lower latitude TD. I still don't have enough faith in the longer term upper air models to believe that any northward motion of a developing low would result in anything other than being sheared apart or immediately weakened due to proximity to land (Central America). The CMC trying to take a deepening low north into the E. Gulf is simply an outlier that I don't buy at the moment.

Until both the EURO and GFS begin to advertise a consistent evolution to present upper air conditions over the Gulf & Northern Caribbean, I think the threat of a larger cyclonic gyre developing remains minimal. Given the size that a monsoonal type system possesses, I just cannot see such development with less than fairly favorable upper air conditions. So for this reason I continue to think that until near term upper air conditions significantly begin to change much over the Northwestern Caribbean, Central Gulf and points north of 20 degrees latitude, the only type of downstream genesis that I can foresee within the next 10 days, would be some type of smaller spin off vorticity that might try to develop farther south under less hostile upper air conditions and perhaps in the far Southwestern Caribbean or B.O.C.

At some point though, "this goalpost" is gonna stop moving and Elvis...er... the MJO will have finally left the building.

[NDG]

Monsoonal troughs that usually push north out of the deep tropics usually have an upper level anticyclone on top or near them.
I do believe conditions in the western Caribbean will improve over time which usually starts happening in June.

[psyclone]

at this point I'll be content with a bump in PWATS to kick our convectively vapid atmosphere into gear. Yesterday the dewpoint in tampa was 45! crazy. time for a moisture pump.

[cycloneye]

As I said in the models thread,my limit is 144 hours to look at the models and on that timeframe is when the 12z ECMWF starts the development process in BOC.I wont post the rest as it becomes fantasy.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Monsoonal troughs that usually push north out of the deep tropics usually have an upper level anticyclone on top or near them.
I do believe conditions in the western Caribbean will improve over time which usually starts happening in June.

So true!! In the near term the 12Z GFS does indicate lighter upper level winds through the Western Caribbean in about 60 hours. Still though, strong upper level westerlies are not far to the north, and rather than the more signature dominant anticyclone finally migrating toward (or developing) near Central America, a monsoonal "co-located" upper high just doesn't seem to really show itself until perhaps about 204 hr.'s.

Of course that is not to say that significant convection caused by the anticipated MJO pulse couldn't sooner begin to develop it's own upper anticyclone. That could certainly be a reasonable outcome. Either the "chicken or the egg" might spur the other to occur, however until I see either ("chicken" or "egg") am less inclined to anticipate seeing it unfold this time around. You certainly do have climotology working on your side, though!