Northern Gulf

[tolakram]

I'm looking at the 90 label on this loop, to the west SW of the blowup. Looks like it's starting to be drawn toward the convection and some banding setting up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

[Bailey1777]

wxman57 if we get something at the surface are all other factors good for this possible system?

[otowntiger]

20%-20%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

We definitely had that "tropical weather feel" around here (Sanford - north of Orlando) yesterday. Sheets of rain were blowing through much of the day. I kept wondering what system was responsible for this? Funny though Orlando itself didn't get a drop of rain all day, just 20 miles south of me.

[nautical wheeler]

Still looks fairly open to me but I will say for the first time with a disturbance convection is actually pulsating. So used to seeing it flare up then disappear.






This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm looking at the 90 label on this loop, to the west SW of the blowup. Looks like it's starting to be drawn toward the convection and some banding setting up.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-90&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&map=latlon

it is definitely getting going will it make it though

[ROCK]

20% and not an INVEST....wow!!...I guess you need every model showing development before it can be classified....

Devil's Advocate time, because it's fun - Being labeled as an invest doesn't "mean anything", in terms of public recognition. If you think the traditional suite of models is handling track and intensity (or lack thereof) well, why demand the resources for the tropical suite? Already plenty of resources for satellite and tons of surface obs, is a floater really necessary? Not really sure what the point of an Invest designation is other than to satisfy us Internet folks. The yellow blob on the website indicates that they're watching it, whether there's an Invest or not doesn't really mean that much, and I know you know that for all the times NHC has said it

Now if surface obs were showing a developing surface circulation or at least falling pressures, then it becomes something to more seriously consider.

ok well if it pulls a Humberto and I am not saying it will but playing along, do we just do away with any RECON also? We do got obs out there so no reason to waste resources. Someone could just go out there in a john boat with an anoemeter....

[Pearl River]

It seems to be moving at a "slow" 10 mph. I know, 10 mph, is 10 mph, lol.

[TheStormExpert]

What are the chances of this becoming an Invest?

[lrak]

Is there a chance for some wind from this thing? NEED SURF

[USCG_Hurricane_Watcher]

20% and not an INVEST....wow!!...I guess you need every model showing development before it can be classified....

Devil's Advocate time, because it's fun - Being labeled as an invest doesn't "mean anything", in terms of public recognition. If you think the traditional suite of models is handling track and intensity (or lack thereof) well, why demand the resources for the tropical suite? Already plenty of resources for satellite and tons of surface obs, is a floater really necessary? Not really sure what the point of an Invest designation is other than to satisfy us Internet folks. The yellow blob on the website indicates that they're watching it, whether there's an Invest or not doesn't really mean that much, and I know you know that for all the times NHC has said it

Now if surface obs were showing a developing surface circulation or at least falling pressures, then it becomes something to more seriously consider.

ok well if it pulls a Humberto and I am not saying it will but playing along, do we just do away with any RECON also? We do got obs out there so no reason to waste resources. Someone could just go out there in a john boat with an anoemeter....

John boat with an anemometer...thanks for the job security!

[tolakram]

What are the chances of this becoming an Invest?

If it doesn't poof in the next few hours then I think an invest can be expected near the next tropical outlook, IMO. Shear is fairly strong and not a lot of water left.

[ROCK]

What are the chances of this becoming an Invest?

If it doesn't poof in the next few hours then I think an invest can be expected near the next tropical outlook, IMO. Shear is fairly strong and not a lot of water left.

anticyclone sitting right on top of it....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Hammy]

Watching this brings to mind Bertha in 2002

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bertha_%282002%29

[TheStormExpert]

What are the chances of this becoming an Invest?

If it doesn't poof in the next few hours then I think an invest can be expected near the next tropical outlook, IMO. Shear is fairly strong and not a lot of water left.

anticyclone sitting right on top of it....


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Current Wind Shear:



Current Shear Tendency:

[lrak]

Watching this brings to mind Bertha in 2002

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bertha_%282002%29

Heavy surf killed one person in Florida

[NDG]

It does look like a weak LLC is trying to develop south of the MS river delta near the MLC but I don't see any westerly winds being reported from the oil platforms near the vorticity so this tells me that it is still mainly well above the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

surface obs continue to show broad circ no westerly component yet but given the trend of the day may not take long

[LSU2001]

Sitting In southern lafourche parish and we have fairly steady east winds. This is rare this time of year. Something is brewing in my opinion.
Tim

[TheStormExpert]

Watching this brings to mind Bertha in 2002

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Bertha_%282002%29

Tropical Storm Edouard 2008.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Edouard_(2008)

[ROCK]

if this does develop we should all kneel before the NAM...