Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Bocadude85]

GFS AGAIN pushing back development to the "next" wave

I'm not convinced this is the one to develop

something needs to develop pretty soon or the peak will be gone.

Why are you so focused on September 10th?? Just because that is the climatological peak of a hurricane season does not mean that it will be the peak of this hurricane season. A lot of seasons peak before or after that date.

[Blown Away]

GFS AGAIN pushing back development to the "next" wave

I'm not convinced this is the one to develop

something needs to develop pretty soon or the peak will be gone.

And that's not a bad thing! I'd love for all the prognostications to be wrong and we end up with a very rare inactive season. I know it won't be exciting but it is always interesting when mother nature keeps us guessing and all the experts are fooled.

It seems this will not be a Cape Verde long tracker season, if waves like this are doomed this time of year.

The curiosity side of me wants to see how science explains a very inactive season when all the indicators said active...I don't have the technical background to explain why, but something has been going on over the past few years keeping the MDR at bay compared to the past decade or so...That's why I wonder if we are moving out of the active period we've been in since @1995...The obsessed weather crazed guy wants to see some action...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-wv.html

Convection is popping up all along the MDR ahead of Pouch 95L. Also, the environment surrounding this wave is much moister then any of the previous waves. I expect to see convection firing with this pouch in a day or too and development after that.

[hurricaneCW]

GFS AGAIN pushing back development to the "next" wave

I'm not convinced this is the one to develop

something needs to develop pretty soon or the peak will be gone.

Why are you so focused on September 10th?? Just because that is the climatological peak of a hurricane season does not mean that it will be the peak of this hurricane season. A lot of seasons peak before or after that date.

This year is trending after that date and it could be quite active even deep into October given the high heat content that's yet to be tapped.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Hmm, 6 named storms already and still 2 full weeks away from the peak/midpoint of the season. Seems that this season is so far moving along just fine activity wise to me. Maybe a little slower than expected, but we often have slower starts that don't mean slower ends.
I think the memory of 2004 & 2005 really did spoil many of us and raise our expectations on what "above active" season activity looks like.
And how often are we at end of August and thinking the season was a bust, only to see a bunch of storm development in September and October?
alas, we are not a patient bunch here.

[Sanibel]

This could reconvect further west.

[ninel conde]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/i ... 7&prod=irn

still looks very dried up and on this i cant identify the next wave that was supposed to spawn a storm at 35w in a week.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like on the GFS it tries to do something around 60W and south of PR seems to close off a low so it still may need to be watched closely

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[gatorcane]

Clearly the GFS is less bullish than it was yesterday on development for this wave. Seems to be a recurring theme with the GFS this year. A few runs it is bullish on development only to back off on development or push the timeframe back.

I wonder if NHC will potentially lower development chances a little and change the wording to indicate "development, if any, will be slow to occur."

[tolakram]

Good question.

Here's the 192 hour vorticity and wind plot from the 12Z GFS. Shows this pouch with a nice circular vorticity in the Caribbean. Is this hinting at a storm too small for the GFS to see, or another wave that doesn't develop?

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe&sat=m7&prod=irn

still looks very dried up and on this i cant identify the next wave that was supposed to spawn a storm at 35w in a week.

your right... season over Rainstorm....

the SAL outbreak will keep things in check for awhile....but means development futher west if conditions are right....they look real good currently.

[tolakram]

2PM TWO and still sticking with 0, 30%.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 261745
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 26 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FERNAND...LOCATED INLAND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TUXPAN
MEXICO.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 08N23W TO
ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N20W. WHILE THE WAVE AXIS
HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST AFRICA COAST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...
THESE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS REPRESENT THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN VORTICITY CENTERS RESPECTIVELY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THE
SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM CARRIES WITH IT THE MOST CONVECTION
WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N-
12N BETWEEN 19W-27W. AS THE LOW-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE WESTWARD AS A WHOLE...THE LOW CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ABSORB INTO ONE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
IN THE VICINITY OF 10N30W. BOTH PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH THE SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAXIMUM CONTINUING WESTWARD AS
THE DOMINATE FEATURE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLC.

[tolakram]

Well, I think the Euro is showing the development of this pouch in 144 hours.



The pay version with vorticity is showing a nice ball of vorticity along with the circle of low pressure.

You can see it at 192H as the bend in the 1012 line NE of the islands.



Vorticity remains very well defined at 216 hours at it moves NW.

Free images from http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013082612&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

[cycloneye]

This discussion of wave is from this afternoons San Juan NWS.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W HAS A 30% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT
IN NEXT FIVE DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEXT TUE SEP 03. MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER BUT ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK
TROPICAL STORM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PR. THIS WAVE OR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIG RAIN MAKER.

[Gustywind]

This discussion of wave is from this afternoons San Juan NWS.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W HAS A 30% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT
IN NEXT FIVE DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEXT TUE SEP 03. MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER BUT ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK
TROPICAL STORM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PR. THIS WAVE OR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIG RAIN MAKER.

So, that's the third straight afternoon's discussion from San Juan NWS who is emphasized on this twave development. Let's continue to monitor the situation as usual because of we're already in the begin of the peak of this hurricane season.

[CrazyC83]

So we might get both Gabrielle and Humberto before August is out, depending on that east coast feature later in the week...

[gatorcane]

The FIM model is not nearly as bullish as yesterday either.

So looking at the last 24 hours, the "big three" (GFS/ECMWF/FIM) have all become less bullish with this wave. Only the CMC has gone the other way but we know that it is the CMC afterall

240 hours from now shows a strong tropical wave now passing through Puerto Rico and the Eastern Caribbean but no cyclone becomes of this any longer:

[Blown Away]

This discussion of wave is from this afternoons San Juan NWS.

A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 23W HAS A 30% CHANCE OF TC DEVELOPMENT
IN NEXT FIVE DAYS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEXT TUE SEP 03. MODELS ARE MUCH WEAKER BUT ALSO FARTHER SOUTH
WITH MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK
TROPICAL STORM MOVING JUST SOUTH OF PR. THIS WAVE OR POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIG RAIN MAKER.

Those guys give great discussions...Waves that start developing W of 50W usually have a much higher chance of impacting land than those that develop near Cape Verde islands...Most of the biggie hurricanes that affected SFL from the east developed after 50W...

[cycloneye]

The 18z Surface Analysis has the 1009 low just below 10N. Is forecast to go down to 1006 mbs as you can see to the left of the red L.