2014 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

The best we could hope for is for the ridge to be weakened greatly by the looming Nino. We wouldn't want a 1997 typhoon season with a high landfall risk because of STR holding strong. However, typhoons will be the only source of rainfall for those in Asia during EN. Remember back in 2004, 2006 and 2009 when the Philippines experienced significant TC landfalls but still, water levels went way below normal. This is the time when tropical cyclones can help you but hurt you more at the same time. This is how ugly an El Nino can be.

[euro6208]

00Z GFS showing no development until May 24, 384 hours out...

EURO showing nothing at all...

Could we have a storm free month?

We'll see...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

00Z GFS showing no development until May 24, 384 hours out...

EURO showing nothing at all...

Could we have a storm free month?

We'll see...

Possibly storm free this month. We are currently at the negative side of the MJO. However, tropical cyclone development will be very likely at the other side of the north Pacific Ocean, the EPAC. But later this year, we will have a wild season because of the El Niño. The best analogs for typhoon activity are 1964, 1972, 1982, 1997, 2002 and 2004.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The best we could hope for is for the ridge to be weakened greatly by the looming Nino. We wouldn't want a 1997 typhoon season with a high landfall risk because of STR holding strong. However, typhoons will be the only source of rainfall for those in Asia during EN. Remember back in 2004, 2006 and 2009 when the Philippines experienced significant TC landfalls but still, water levels went way below normal. This is the time when tropical cyclones can help you but hurt you more at the same time. This is how ugly an El Nino can be.

Yes. And you mentioned 2009. It was an outrage, with a typhoon pattern more similar to La Niña events, activity shifts closer to East and Southeast Asia but the region still had a massive drought. Those dams especially in Luzon had water levels way below the critical level but thanks to typhoons like Parma and Ketsana, the water level went back up. For some reason, typhoon activity was only below normal, with only 22 named storms and 13 typhoons.

[euro6208]

For some reason, typhoon activity was only below normal, with only 22 named storms and 13 typhoons.

2009 although below normal had 28 Tropical Cyclones observed compared to the long term average of 31.

28 Tropical Cyclones
22 Tropical Storms
15 Typhoons
8 Major Typhoons
5 Super Typhoons
-4 became Cat 5's...

Of course this was an el nino year so activity is somewhat lacking compared to normal.

[stormkite]

JMA model is showing a disturbance out to the east in the wave mid next week.

[stormkite]

xtyphooncyclonex maybe some rain on the way for those dams model is hinting towards a weak TD around the 20TH hope there's a decent drop in it.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

xtyphooncyclonex maybe some rain on the way for those dams model is hinting towards a weak TD around the 20TH hope there's a decent drop in it.

We here in Cebu had too much rain, while other places are in need of rain and this TD should bring good news to those hit by the dry spell. Hope this pans out.

[euro6208]

Marked increase in convection across the area as the wet phrase of the mjo slowly moves east but nothing too organized right now.

06Z GFS liking something to develop in 150 hours around palau and takes it to the philippines as a weak TS or TD around the samar region...

First run so let's wait for consistency...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Anyway development is extremely unlikely. We are in the dry phase of the MJO which prevents convective activity. If there is however, it won't develop. Models are in agreement that no storm will develop.

[stormkite]

GFS 12z likes it more to the south but both models showing something. Keeps fingers crossed also i believe navgem hinting a TD.

[euro6208]

Wet MJO now present over the Far Western Pacific and slowly moving east and likely what the models are showing is due to this favorable (rising air)...

[euro6208]

nothing in the latest model runs. the waiting game continues

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS 12z likes it more to the south but both models showing something. Keeps fingers crossed also i believe navgem hinting a TD.

No development. Period. That is just a bulk of convection over an unfavorable environment, bring rains to an uncertain area. No other model develops a TD but JMA, or if not none. IMO, the chances are below 5% for the next 2 weeks.

[stormkite]

GFS 12z likes it more to the south but both models showing something. Keeps fingers crossed also i believe navgem hinting a TD.

No development. Period. That is just a bulk of convection over an unfavorable environment, bring rains to an uncertain area. No other model develops a TD but JMA, or if not none. IMO, the chances are below 5% for the next 2 weeks.

it remains to seen if it closes off but its out there.



I think its here atm in this wave.




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[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS 12z likes it more to the south but both models showing something. Keeps fingers crossed also i believe navgem hinting a TD.

No development. Period. That is just a bulk of convection over an unfavorable environment, bring rains to an uncertain area. No other model develops a TD but JMA, or if not none. IMO, the chances are below 5% for the next 2 weeks.

it remains to seen if it closes off but its out there.



I think its here atm in this wave.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

We are at the negative phase. None of the models push on development. Note the shear problems.

I'm not being biased, but still development is very uncertain. And I HAVE NO IDEA ABOUT ATM...

[stormkite]

.

[euro6208]

No longer in the negative phrase (sinking air) of the MJO as seen from this graphic but expected to weaken and reemerge over the Indian Ocean...

Green- Favorable phrase (rising air)

[euro6208]

it remains to seen if it closes off but its out there.



I think its here atm in this wave.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't think this is what the models are developing. if you look at the cpc hazardous map, that is for week 2 so still far out. This is likely due to a kelvin wave that is present in the back and rear side of the MJO while it strengthens over the IO which will provide favorable conditions.

With the wet phrase in the area for just a few days, we are already seeing over plus 65 mm Total Precipitable Water from the malay peninsula all the way to the dateline and north to japan. The wpac is super ripe right now but needs a trigger...I think the MJO might do it.

[stormkite]

Anyway development is extremely unlikely. We are in the dry phase of the MJO which prevents convective activity. If there is however, it won't develop. Models are in agreement that no storm will develop.

Blue shows Active Convection , Red shows Suppressed Convection