2015 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Time frame for development is just 264 hours out now...This el nino means business...

[euro6208]

Development in just 252 hours now and system is slower overall compared to the last run but deeper by 1 mb...

[euro6208]

Woah 12Z a bit deeper on Maysak and 18Z is much much slower and potential typhoon for the Marshall Islands...It also develops Ela in the Central Pacific.

[euro6208]

Now GFS is developing 2 storms within the WPAC and much further west for Maysak. No more Ela.

It recurves it east of the Marianas and shows another circulation, Pre-Haishen...




CMC and NAVGEM brings this close to Guam...




EURO doesn't develop anything for now

[euro6208]

NWS:

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THIS AREA TODAY EXCEPT ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI. A TRADE-WIND SURGE IS JUST
MOVING ACROSS THE DATE LINE AND GFS MODEL INDICATES A DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND AFFECT THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED AT MAJURO ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF MAJURO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS KOSRAE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND AT POHNPEI
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER QUITE A BIT IN
THE LONGER RANGE BUT IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MICRONESIA.

[euro6208]

Now 2 typhoons!

Looks like the Marianas is the place to be if you want some action...300% increase of a direct hit in an el nino...

[euro6208]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=76&t=117156

Finally after days of waiting and talking, we now have 98W

[euro6208]

NWS Guam on latest activity...We are slightly above normal for number of storms, which is normally just a fraction larger than 2.

The annual number of storms in a given year does range quite a bit, especially depending on the larger scale environment and pattern--including El Nino/La Nina phase. However, the number of storms for the NW Pacific can range from the upper teens for a really inactive year to low 40s for a very busy year. Although the majority of storms occur during the wet season (July-Dec), it is not out of the ordinary to see storms develop this time of year. In fact, around March, we do see a climatological rise in the number of storms followed by a slight decrease later in the spring and then the gradual climb in wet season. Sept/Oct tend to be the busiest months in number of storms while Oct usually sees the most super typhoons. At this point in the season we're slightly above normal for number of storms, which is normally just a fraction larger than 2. El Nino years tend to be much busier in terms of typhoons--as in 1987/88, 1997 and 2002. We could see a light to moderate El Nino this year.

[euro6208]

Models are coming into agreement that another tc will develop right behind our current invest and gfs is keen on developing twins...

[euro6208]

This increase in activity is due to a convectively enhanced kelvin wave that will move through the region last week of March and a good looking mjo first half of April...

[cycloneye]

Pagasa has a new warning system.Check it out.



http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... w-website/

[euro6208]

Chilling model runs...

12Z GFS has a recurving typhoon strike for Guam and literally has almost every island taking a direct hit!

18Z GFS even stronger, 967 mb, south of Guam and recurves putting the entire Marianas in bulleyes.

Then the SHOCKER!

00Z now only shows a TD/Disturbance passing...

It instead develops a dateline tropical storm

[euro6208]

Some potential for activity during week 2 due to KW and MJO combo...

[euro6208]

18Z GFS not only showing 1, not 2, but 3 tropical cyclones...One typhoon lashes Guam while another formidable typhoon brews...

[euro6208]

Different scenario now showing twin typhoons Haishen and Noul doing a fujiwhara...EURO, NAVGEM, and CMC develops the western system but much further west than GFS...

[euro6208]

Well if GFS is right, we will be at 7 TC's and possibly more before May...

I am thinking of an extraordinary season something we haven't seen since 2004 or 1997...

My forecast for the season is a conservative 29 named storms, 22 typhoons, and 15 major due to +PDO and El nino...

We should see a eastward displacement of many of these storms near the dateline and thus have more time over water and very very little way of land to disrupt them....

The biggest threat this year I see is Japan, the Philippines, and definitely especially Micronesia including the Marianas...

Big season ahead...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

My forecast for the 2015 NW Pacific Typhoon Season

27/19/9

Above average activity, not much for number of named storms but a very-high number of super typhoons and lightly above-average of 19 typhoons, which constitutes the majority of named storms. Possibly very high average % percent of ACE, impacts and threats.

[euro6208]

Heck if everything is right this season, i wouldn't be shocked if we got to at least +40 named storms...

Many people in our generations and before storm2k wasn't around when the WPAC would produce +30, +40's back to back in the old days...

It will happen again...

[euro6208]

Wow...

06Z GFS on the western system bottoms it out 940mb and into Yap and Philippines...

Formation



Peak into Yap and develops a weaker TS east of it...



Philippines

[euro6208]

CMC takes Haishen right into Yap after a devastating hit from Maysak...



NAVGEM producing a typhoon



EURO not as bullish as other models on next system