2017 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

The disturbance in the Philippine Islands is showing some rotation - pretty sure it wil be declared an invest soon.
It will be a Rain maker for Soutern Luzon and Central Philippines

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/873031448751513600



 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/873032243295289346

[euro6208]

96W THREAD

For Philippine system...

[cycloneye]

SSt's are very warm and this alone will favor things to turn active very soon.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/873357244716515328

[1900hurricane]

I'm going to resume my WPac blogs soon, but Weather Underground is no longer allowing me to post blogs there. Anyone have any good site recommendations for where I can post my blogs?

[euro6208]

Despite how slow the WPAC seems to be right now with Merbok becoming the 2nd named storm of the year in June, it's pretty normal.

We're used to those pretty active starts over here.

[euro6208]

UKMET June forecast continues to show a very active WPAC.

[1900hurricane]

Despite how slow the WPAC seems to be right now with Merbok becoming the 2nd named storm of the year in June, it's pretty normal.

We're used to those pretty active starts over here.

Storm quality has been pretty poor though. We're running fairly large deficits in ACE, PDI, and Tropical Storm Days (updated through 12Z today).

[1900hurricane]

For comparison's sake, here's how 2017's ACE stands currently versus other recent seasons. The lackluster start has some company with the recent years of 2016 and 2013. All recent years saw at least some notable uptick by early July.

[dexterlabio]

^wow, if nothing happens by the first week of July, 2017 would be lagging behind. 2016 almost looked like it would become a dud typhoon season until STY Nepartak came. I think the uptick depends on the arrival of a real and strong MJO pulse in this basin. GFS keeps it in the western hemisphere for several days, while the Euro propagates the wave to the Indian Ocean. I wonder if the strong signal will ever make it to the WPAC by July.

[cycloneye]

Ryan Maue describes WPAC as a "Ghost Town".

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/875411340399177728

[euro6208]

A few of the models trying to reawaken the basin last week of June through the first days of July between the Philippines and Guam.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Just waiting to explode...

[euro6208]

Super favorable. Once the atmosphere clicks...Oh, oh...

[euro6208]

I'm going to resume my WPac blogs soon, but Weather Underground is no longer allowing me to post blogs there. Anyone have any good site recommendations for where I can post my blogs?

I know of a few sites but they seem too distant. Storm2k= WUND, WUND= Storm2k so I think it's best to post here. Maybe you can sticky topic your blogs? My opinion.

Maybe someone else has something better...

[dexterlabio]

I'm going to resume my WPac blogs soon, but Weather Underground is no longer allowing me to post blogs there. Anyone have any good site recommendations for where I can post my blogs?

^Yeah it'd be best if you keep posting your blogs here. I've been learning a lot about weather since I became a member many years ago, but your blogs especially on last year's WPAC typhoon season are really, really informative.

[euro6208]

For comparison's sake, here's how 2017's ACE stands currently versus other recent seasons. The lackluster start has some company with the recent years of 2016 and 2013. All recent years saw at least some notable uptick by early July.

What is causing the WPAC to be so slow thus far?

[dexterlabio]

For comparison's sake, here's how 2017's ACE stands currently versus other recent seasons. The lackluster start has some company with the recent years of 2016 and 2013. All recent years saw at least some notable uptick by early July.

What is causing the WPAC to be so slow thus far?

To me it looks like the strong MJO is in a position that suppresses tropical activity in WPAC. This is why we have two potential storms in the Atlantic, while there is just so much subsidence in the Pacific right now. Not sure when the MJO will move out of its current phase. GFS continues to stall the signal for the next 2 weeks, while the Euro shows propagation albeit very slow.

[1900hurricane]

I think an active Mei-yu setup has also contributed since May. Climatologically, June does see an activity dip, and the Mei-yu plays a large part in that. That dip is easy to see when viewing ACE and PDI accumulation from 1970 to 2016.