Trough of Low Pressure in Bay of Campeche / (Is INVEST 96L)

[ronjon]

12z UKMET NE GOM with 1004 mb low this weekend.

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/usa-east/sea-level-pressure/20191019-1800z.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Not believing it for one second. Gfs has been showing at least two systems in the gulf since last week of September, if memory serves me correctly euro and Canadian did as well just not as consistently. As of Friday they even started backing way off the moisture plume coming north out of the BOC.

[northjaxpro]

The Low UKMET is showing could be interacting with a front in the GOM this weekend, if it even develops. We will see how this pans out.

[PTrackerLA]

12z EPS is a bit more active than previous runs, several sub 1000mb members whereas the 00z had just one.

[psyclone]

Both the CPC 6-10 day outlook and the WPC QPF output depict an increasing likelihood of a significant rain event on the northern Gulf coast. In fact there is now an 80% chance of above normal precip over the northern half of Alabama...with a large surrounding area of 70%. A signal that strong is rarely denied. That does not mean a TC is on the docket but it certainly pings a heavy rain event of tropical origin is likely...most probable somewhere from Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle...with peninsular Florida most likely remaining east of the fray.

[NDG]

[NDG]

Worth mentioning that the possible BOC system now has a growing trend of GFS ensemble support for development, regardless it will be a fairly sheared system as it gets close to the northern gulf coast.

[GCANE]

TCFA posted for 98E.
This will pull in all the moisture in the CAG.
If anything does develop in the BoC, good chance it'll be very weak.

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located over portions of Central America
and the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system and another disturbance
over the eastern Pacific are expected to produce heavy rains over
a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days,
which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous
areas. By late Wednesday, the system is forecast to emerge over the
Bay of Campeche and then turn northward, and environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for some development
towards the end of the week when the system is over the western
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[NDG]

0z UKMET, trending stronger with the possible system. I was just looking at the UL winds forecast in which I think that if the system tracks closer to FL the better UL winds it will have to intensify.

[NDG]

1. A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and
thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and
northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system
over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains
across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of
days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast
to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
some development towards the end of the week when the system is
located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro ensembles


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[Ivanhater]

Euro and gfs howing a lot of rain for northern gulf coast. Much needed.

[DestinHurricane]

If this develops and has time over the warm gulf waters with low shear it's most likely not going to stay weak.

[MarioProtVI]

This has a better shot at becoming Nestor then 15 IMHO.

[ronjon]

0z UKMET, trending stronger with the possible system. I was just looking at the UL winds forecast in which I think that if the system tracks closer to FL the better UL winds it will have to intensify.

So far UKMET pretty consistent on NE GOM track - similar to CMC and ICON. Euro on the west side of guidance over La, GFS somewhere between the two camps.

[facemane]

0z UKMET, trending stronger with the possible system. I was just looking at the UL winds forecast in which I think that if the system tracks closer to FL the better UL winds it will have to intensify.

So far UKMET pretty consistent on NE GOM track - similar to CMC and ICON. Euro on the west side of guidance over La, GFS somewhere between the two camps.

I'm wondering how these cold fronts that are now making it through the northern gulf will affect the track. Shouldn't it be more NE like the Ukmet?

[SoupBone]

0z UKMET, trending stronger with the possible system. I was just looking at the UL winds forecast in which I think that if the system tracks closer to FL the better UL winds it will have to intensify.

So far UKMET pretty consistent on NE GOM track - similar to CMC and ICON. Euro on the west side of guidance over La, GFS somewhere between the two camps.

I'm wondering how these cold fronts that are now making it through the northern gulf will affect the track. Shouldn't it be more NE like the Ukmet?

Yes, which is why Texas, typically, sees fewer threats in October than the rest of the Gulf Coast.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1184124401308057600

[wxman57]

GFS has quite a wall of strong shear across the northern Gulf all week.