Near Yucatán / SE Gulf of Mexico development (Is Invest 91L)

[TallyTracker]

This setup makes me wonder if we’ll see the system struggle to close off a low-level circulation. If it starts shooting NE before establishing the LLC, that could definitely occur. Sustained TS winds would still be possible due to forward motion.

Do we know approximately how fast the models show the system moving toward FL?

[skyline385]

Looks like EURO might be caving in towards the GFS

https://i.imgur.com/hrAlfiU.png

The GFS has a much different look 90 hours out then the Euro.

As in its slowly shifting south and is faster like the GFS. We will find out more on the 0Z EURO.

[skyline385]

Looks like EURO might be caving in towards the GFS with the shift southwards

https://i.imgur.com/hrAlfiU.png

And now 0Z ICON has shifted south as well.

[cane5]

Don’t like a shift south are there any models that tell us how strong the winds might be ?

[skyline385]

Don’t like a shift south are there any models that tell us how strong the winds might be ?

Not sure if this is what you are looking for but i posted a Euro plot showing max gusts few comments back from today's 12Z run

[skyline385]

0Z CMC following the trend as well, just a little more South and the SFL shield might actually live for another day lol

[chaser1]

Rule #1 - Upper level divergence can do wonders toward kick-starting a fairly saturated rising column of air and it may have that going for it by mid to late week.

Rule #2 - A decent surface pressure gradient would certainly aid itself toward developing a singular low level vortex, yet the models continue to suggest a fairly flat pattern with a broad area of generally low pressures over the E. GOM and Florida waters over the next week.

Rule #3 - It'll be the 1st week of June, so expect to see a large hairball and not much more LMBO. I mean c'mon, you don't exactly walk into a flea-market with the hope of finding frest Maine lobster for lunch do ya?

Rule #4 - None of the above matters 'cause it'll trek close enough to the US in (this case the Fla. Peninsula), that some quick ASCAT or Microwave pass, Recon, Satellite T numbers, or passing cruise ship with a very elevated anenometer will verify a 35 kt. wind (somewhere).

Conclusion: In these times it's less about the actualized impact from a legit deepening semi- symetrical Tropical Storm then it is about spotting that potential wolf and then warning everyone about it. Therefore, I am quite confident that we'll be tracking Alex. The ingredients are expected to be there even IF model clarity is meh. Therefore why forecast the weather when one can forecast the forecaster Okay "Alex", we're breathlessly waiting - lets see what you've actually got. I think it's already time to look out for Bonnie

[psyclone]

If our system ticks much more southward it could easily keep most of the sensible wx (primarily rainfall) south of the state. Certainly possible considering up until this point it has looked like a primarily south Florida ( and secondarily east central FL) event.

[zzh]

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Tropical Storm Agatha
from the eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the
area, this system could become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late this week. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days,
spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida
Keys by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[skyline385]

Latest EURO has a much more spread out rain event

[ouragans]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near
the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple
of days, partially related to the remnants of Agatha from the
eastern Pacific. Despite strong upper-level winds over the area,
this system could become a tropical depression while it moves
northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late this week. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the
Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next few days,
spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida
Keys by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Blown Away]

Does Pacific Agatha become Alex in the Atlantic Basin if it develops again?


Euro predicting 40-60+ gusts for SWFL, Keys, SFL beginning Friday.

[skyline385]

NHC seems to be forecasting Agatha to dissipate over CA so the remnants will be Alex in the Gulf

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Euro is consistent. GFS is too though. One of them is gonna take an L here for sure

[skyline385]

Euro is consistent. GFS is too though. One of them is gonna take an L here for sure

I checked UKMET earlier this morning and it's siding with the EURO still.

However, both ICON and CMC have shifted south in the last few runs to be more in line with GFS.

[tolakram]

I'm still all in for the GFS solution since this is one of the areas the model gets right over and over. Heavily sheared system with a center that continues to reform south and east into the convection.

[Blown Away]

GFS

[SFLcane]

[NDG]

Two noticeable vortices this morning, the one from Agatha in southern MX and one over northern Belize.
Might be why the models have different solutions.