Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 96L)

[cycloneye]

In Puerto Rico, we expect a lot of rain with this waves passage from late Thursday thru Saturday.

[cycloneye]

A tough road for it in short term.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1569338253748371462




 https://twitter.com/NHC_TAFB/status/1569338269573447681

[Emmett_Brown]

Yep, lots of dry air. However, if you look at a water vapor loop, the dry air in front of it is also moving W at a similar speed. So it may be able to moisten its environment and create a moist pocket. The dry air should keep it in check for now, but I don't think it will kill it like with previous waves.

[cycloneye]

12z ICON has a TS over PR.

[IsabelaWeather]

In Puerto Rico, we expect a lot of rain with this waves passage from late Thursday thru Saturday.


https://i.imgur.com/xiwNirr.jpg

How did you get that image? I would love to be able to look at that in the future.

[aspen]

12z ICON develops this over Puerto Rico next week, 12z CMC gets this into the Bahamas as an open wave, and 12z GFS is broken and won’t load but probably kills the wave off entirely like every other previous run.

[NDG]

12z ICON develops this over Puerto Rico next week, 12z CMC gets this into the Bahamas as an open wave, and 12z GFS is broken and won’t load but probably kills the wave off entirely like every other previous run.

Looks like the GFS develops it when it gets to the southern and central Bahamas area.

[LarryWx]

I don't know if it is drunk, but 12Z GEFS fwiw is by far the most active run since 5 days ago with 5 of 31 members as hurricanes near and just east of the SE Bahamas on Sept 19th.

Edit: There's not much development til Sept 16th after passing 55W.

[skyline385]

GFS gets it into the Gulf below the keys but then it just dissipates…


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[LarryWx]

Regarding this AEW now near 40W, the 0Z UKMET dropped it again, but the 12Z just brought it back once more only to have it dissipate in the NE Caribbean while it is moving WNW as it runs into Hispaniola:



NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 16.6N 54.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2022 72 16.5N 55.7W 1011 28
0000UTC 16.09.2022 84 16.6N 58.8W 1009 31
1200UTC 16.09.2022 96 17.0N 61.6W 1009 32
0000UTC 17.09.2022 108 17.1N 64.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 17.09.2022 120 17.5N 67.3W 1008 28
0000UTC 18.09.2022 132 CEASED TRACKING

[NDG]

GEFS is starting to like this TW with more members coming on board with development.
This now may become in invest during the next 24 hrs if trends continue for development.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located midway between the west coast of Africa and
the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of
this system is possible over the next several days while it moves
generally westward to west-northwestward over the central tropical
Atlantic and approaches the Windward Islands by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

GEFS is starting to like this TW with more members coming on board with development.
This now may become in invest during the next 24 hrs if trends continue for development.

https://i.imgur.com/lRiSp1d.png

It is all of the sudden the most active GEFS by far in 5 days and thus we'll have to see whether or not this is just an oddball run. There's little development until passing 55W east of and near the Leewards 9/15-16. By September 21, it has per Tidbits 8 hurricanes and 2 TS amongst its 31 members.

[NDG]

Here's the 12z GFS, for some reason it has it opening back up to a wave over the Lesser Antilles then redeveloping over the southern Bahamas later in the period.

[NDG]

Not a bad looking TW.

[LarryWx]

Not a bad looking TW.

https://i.imgur.com/61HkjJ2.gif

I think that other than the precursor to Earl, which was kind of similar, this AEW has by a good margin the most widespread convection since the precursor to Bonnie way back in late June.

[SFLcane]

Not a bad looking TW.

https://i.imgur.com/61HkjJ2.gif

Certainly! Gefs sudden uptick is rather interesting.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup with TCG days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north:

[sma10]

12Z Euro 216 has a scary setup with TCG days 8-9 Bahamas and a strong high to its north:

https://i.imgur.com/7XyjgLC.png

Yes and the 240 has it right on SFL doorstep. Maybe something to watch

[cycloneye]

12z Euro ends here with a TS.