Tropical Wave East of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[SFLcane]

12z Euro is into the gulf of gulf of honduras again.

[LarryWx]

https://i.imgur.com/pZtpG6K.png
ECAI finally on board (the last model to do this), showing the wave strengthening and stalling around 75W-80W 15N for a whopping 8 days

The world doesn't need another Hurricane Mitch.

Fwiw due to it being way out in fantasyland, the 12Z Euro has Mitch-like/Eta-like/Iota-like flooding in N Honduras as it stalls just to the N of Honduras for a few days and intensifies followed by E and then ENE/NE movement to W of Jamaica headed toward C Cuba at the end as a trough picks it up.

[cycloneye]

Here is the whole 12z Euro run. I only say yikes

[blp]

Euro says hold my beer..

[SFLcane]

Euro says hold my bear to the GFS.

https://i.imgur.com/48bWkJ7.gif

another 50 miles east near the yucatan and that clips keys/sfl. Long ways to go

[blp]

Ukmet.. If this played out further it looks like it would be similar to Euro.

[psyclone]

EURO wants a "party like it's 1999" wrong way Lenny redux

[Cachondo23]

EURO wants a "party like it's 1999" wrong way Lenny redux

Was thinking of that! Euro wants a strong wrong way Lenny and GFS a weak one. In the end, it looks like something would be moving east when developed…

[TomballEd]

EURO wants a "party like it's 1999" wrong way Lenny redux

Was thinking of that! Euro wants a strong wrong way Lenny and GFS a weak one. In the end, it looks like something would be moving east when developed…

Eastward movement in an end of October storm would not be abnormal.

[Steve H.]

What was left of Mitch did cross the Florida peninsula, so ya never know.

[SFLcane]

[blp]

12z DeepMind

[ljmac75]

If the Euro holds up and Cuba vanishes into thin air Florida could be in for a really big hit. Third cat 5 of the season coming up? Probably not.

[TomballEd]

If the Euro holds up and Cuba vanishes into thin air Florida could be in for a really big hit. Third cat 5 of the season coming up? Probably not.

This would be in the Caribbean about the same time of year as Mitch. If it stalls it could make a run at Cat 5. Assuming it doesn't get recurved quickly or plows into Central America, which the ensembles suggests are distinct possibilities.

[ronjon]

If the Euro holds up and Cuba vanishes into thin air Florida could be in for a really big hit. Third cat 5 of the season coming up? Probably not.

This would be in the Caribbean about the same time of year as Mitch. If it stalls it could make a run at Cat 5. Assuming it doesn't get recurved quickly or plows into Central America, which the ensembles suggests are distinct possibilities.

Another thing to keep in mind is the SW Caribbean has basically been untouched by any tropical cyclones this season. Lots of untapped heat potential combined with forecasts of an upper level high overhead in the region makes a "Mitch-like" storm possible.

[LarryWx]

Happy Hour GFS is even further E with a NE move over far E PR and the Virgin Islands of a strengthening cat 1 H 10/24-5.

[blp]

Happy Hour GFS is even further E with a NE move over far E PR and the Virgin Islands of a strengthening cat 1 H 10/24-5.

The ensembles say the ops run is out to lunch. Ops is furthest east.

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025


...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34.5W S of
15N, and moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 31W
and 39W.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025


East of the Windward Islands into the Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave currently located over the central tropical Atlantic
is associated with a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
gradual development of this system is possible over the next several
days as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible as the
system moves across the Windward Islands late this weekend and
enters the Caribbean Sea by the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[Blown Away]

IMO, out of respect to the GFS consistently showing development near PR run after run the NHC had to extend the cone east.