Tropical Depression#5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Vortex]

Anyone have the 6z nhc suite yet or the 00z gfdl?

[clfenwi]

NHC Suite hasn't posted yet...

WHXX04 KWBC 250532
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE 05L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 25

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.7 63.5 280./17.1
6 12.9 64.6 279./10.7
12 13.2 65.8 283./12.5
18 13.5 66.9 287./11.0
24 14.1 67.9 302./11.2
30 14.9 69.3 300./15.6
36 15.8 70.3 309./13.4
42 16.3 71.4 297./11.9
48 17.0 72.2 312./10.4
54 18.2 73.4 314./15.9
60 19.3 74.7 312./16.4
66 20.2 75.8 307./14.3
72 21.0 77.3 299./15.3
78 21.3 78.6 285./12.7
84 21.8 79.4 302./ 8.9
90 22.4 80.8 292./14.1
96 23.0 82.0 296./12.7
102 23.6 83.2 296./13.0
108 24.1 84.4 291./12.0
114 24.5 85.2 301./ 8.4
120 24.9 86.2 291./ 9.9
126 25.2 87.2 286./ 9.3

[clfenwi]

First post-eclipse look at TD5...

[Starburst]

Looks as if it has grown in size a bit what do you think?

[weatherman0518]

dunno but it seems to be starting to encounter light shear on the westrn edge. . .

[calculatedrisk]

Looking healthy ...

[temujin]

Is it being sheared or is it just tightening up?

If it's moving west, then it stands to reason most of its moisture is going to be lagging behind, until it can develop a stronger vortex.

[Normandy]

Looks better and better....and no its not being shear that badly the LLC is well under the convection now

[clfenwi]

SSD's estimate is up

25/0615 UTC 13.1N 64.5W T2.5/2.5 05L

[Cyclenall]

It does look better and more well organized.

[calculatedrisk]

SSD's estimate is up

25/0615 UTC 13.1N 64.5W T2.5/2.5 05L

Ernesto?

Date : 25 AUG 2006 Time : 061500 UTC
2.5 /1005.0mb/ 35.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html

[Bailey1777]

.1S = .6W

[calculatedrisk]

Date : 25 AUG 2006 Time : 064500 UTC
Lat : 13:23:52 N Lon : 64:53:13 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1004.0mb/ 37.0kt
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html

Getting stronger ...

[clfenwi]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 250713
CHGHUR
 
 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
 
  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION       FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825  0600 UTC
 
          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          060825  0600   060825  1800   060826  0600   060826  1800
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    13.2N  64.9W   13.7N  66.8W   14.4N  68.9W   15.6N  71.0W
  BAMM    13.2N  64.9W   13.6N  67.4W   14.2N  69.7W   15.3N  72.0W
  A98E    13.2N  64.9W   13.7N  68.1W   14.2N  70.9W   14.9N  73.5W
  LBAR    13.2N  64.9W   13.7N  67.5W   14.4N  70.4W   15.3N  73.3W
  SHIP        30KTS          33KTS          40KTS          48KTS
  DSHP        30KTS          33KTS          40KTS          48KTS
 
          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          060827  0600   060828  0600   060829  0600   060830  0600
 
           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    17.1N  73.3W   19.4N  77.8W   20.2N  82.4W   20.7N  86.9W
  BAMM    16.4N  74.3W   18.9N  79.0W   20.5N  83.4W   21.7N  86.9W
  A98E    15.9N  75.8W   17.9N  80.6W   19.4N  85.2W   20.4N  89.6W
  LBAR    16.6N  76.0W   19.9N  80.7W   22.3N  84.1W   22.8N  87.1W
  SHIP        57KTS          74KTS          83KTS          86KTS
  DSHP        57KTS          74KTS          83KTS          86KTS
 
               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  64.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
  LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  61.6W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 =  14KT
  LATM24 =  11.7N LONM24 =  58.5W
  WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =  125NM WNDM12 =   30KT
  CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  160NM SDEPTH =   M
  RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM

[Bailey1777]

Back West some

[Thunder44]

There were two ship reports last hour under that storm. One ship reported 26kt winds. None support winds anywhere near TS strength, which is probably why TPC is still keeping this a TD on from their 6z model run. However it does look pressure may have dropped a couple mbs from the last advisory.

SHIP 06 12.5 -64.8 50 19.0 - 6.6 4.0 29.74
SHIP 06 13.2 -63.1 130 26.0 - 9.8 3.0 29.76

[clfenwi]

TAFB went with an estimated position of 12.9N, 64.3W and Dvorak numbers 3.0/3.0

[Bailey1777]

3.0/3.0 gotta be a TS right?

[clfenwi]

Chris, Dennis, and Emily were all upgraded on the basis of 2.5s, so one would think the satellite estimates justify an upgrade, provided that appearance does/did not detoriate between 06Z and advisory time.

Thanks to Thunder44 for posting the ship obs. The second ob, showing 26 knots, isn't too when you think about how it's upwards of 60 nautical miles away from the center. The first ob, though does seem weak for a potential tropical storm (although it is on the south side).

A MINUTE LATER: Really, just after I posted this I found the AFWA estimate

TPNT KGWC 250650
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
B. 25/0531Z (71)
C. 12.7N/0
D. 64.4W/4
E. SIX/GOES12
F. T2.0/2.0/STT: D0.5/09HRS -25/0531Z-
G. IR/EIR

38A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 USING THE LOG10 SPIRAL
GIVING A DT OF 2.0. FT IS BASED ON DT. PT AGREES.

AODT: T2.5 (CDO)

LAING


Still though, an average of 2.5, and an upward trend should push it over the threshold, I would think. If not, then Thunder44 probably presented the reason why.

[Normandy]

^^ Understand though that this was classified a TD when it hat a whole 10 kts of south wind....so if the 19 kts was on the south side ...given the forward motion of 17 or so kts, yields 38 kts on the northern side. VERY Weak TS imo right now.

ALso the convection as blossomed over the LLC, maybe this will begin to vertically stack itself.