ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WeatherEmperor]

Summary: A La Niña in 2007?
(b) the El Niño has decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; and (c)

This is what most people were failing to understand several weeks back and I even tried to get this across over at easternuswx. The timing of this subsurface changeover was very important and it's early arrival set the table better for a La Nina to develop.

You are correct Jim. I remember you being one of the first, if not the first to call this. You were right on. How do you feel now going into March, about a possible La Nina forming?

<RICKY>

[Jim Hughes]

Summary: A La Niña in 2007?
(b) the El Niño has decayed somewhat earlier than normal thereby giving time for a La Niña to begin developing during the critical March to June period; and (c)

This is what most people were failing to understand several weeks back and I even tried to get this across over at easternuswx. The timing of this subsurface changeover was very important and it's early arrival set the table better for a La Nina to develop.

You are correct Jim. I remember you being one of the first, if not the first to call this. You were right on. How do you feel now going into March, about a possible La Nina forming?

<RICKY>

Ricky,

My thoughts about the La Nina forming have not changed at all. It's still the same as it was last month.

[cycloneye]

It will be a very interesting 8th of March because the next updates for both BoM (Australians) and CPC (Climate Prediction Center) will be on the same day.

[WeatherEmperor]

It will be a very interesting 8th of March because the next updates for both BoM (Australians) and CPC (Climate Prediction Center) will be on the same day.

I dont wanna sound to picky, but do you know the exact time of day these updates will be available on March 8th?

<RICKY>

[windycity]

Well,i know its early in the season, but these are indications that it will probably be a busy season somewhere. Jim,you are the man! I remember last year you predicted a el nino way before anybody else. So, what are your thoughts about this year?

[cycloneye]

It will be a very interesting 8th of March because the next updates for both BoM (Australians) and CPC (Climate Prediction Center) will be on the same day.

I dont wanna sound to picky, but do you know the exact time of day these updates will be available on March 8th?

<RICKY>

Ricky,on March 8th,the BoM update will be out very early in the overnight hours in this part of the world because it's released in Australia.On the other hand,the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) update will be released around 8:00 AM EST.

[WeatherEmperor]

Okay thanks for the update Luis.

<RICKY>

[AussieMark]

the BOM one is usually late afternoon like around this time.

Not meaning to nit pick Luis but on the schedule it says March 7 which would be late Nite on March 6 in the US or early morning on March 7 in the US.

[cycloneye]

the BOM one is usually late afternoon like around this time.

Not meaning to nit pick Luis but on the schedule it says March 7 which would be late Nite on March 6 in the US or early morning on March 7 in the US.

Thanks for bringing the correct date for the BoM update.Title edited.

[Jim Hughes]

Well,i know its early in the season, but these are indications that it will probably be a busy season somewhere. Jim,you are the man! I remember last year you predicted a el nino way before anybody else. So, what are your thoughts about this year?

My La Nina thoughts are at the bottom of the first page here in my La Nina forecast post if you are referring to it. I have yet to do much research about the hurricane season as of yet.

My first guess would put it somewhere between 2005 & 2006.
I should get into politics.

[AussieMark]

Jim are you expecting this event to reach BOM criteria for a La Nina

i.e 3 month average of -0.8

or a event of between -0.5 and -0.7

[Jim Hughes]

Jim are you expecting this event to reach BOM criteria for a La Nina

i.e 3 month average of -0.8

or a event of between -0.5 and -0.7

Yes I do expect it. I actually thought that it would reach the -1.0 when I made my forecast last month and that was why I gave the moderate level the highest chance. I am going to update this forecast in the near future and I might tweak it some.

I also just forecasted a positive SOI trend coming up earlier today at somewhere else. I will try and post something about it around here within the next day or so.

[AussieMark]

[AussieMark]

Subsurface in Nino 3 continues to get colder and colder.
Just need Nino 4 to get colder as that is what is keeping up the Nino 3.4 figures

[cycloneye]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml



The majority of ENSO Models in the Febuary update are Neutral with a couple with Cool (La Nina) conditions.The big question is if La Nina will appear in the summer months.

[AussieMark]

just note Luis these BOM models saying neutral could be La Nina with NOAA criteria

La Nina starts at -0.8 for BOM

and -0.5 for NOAA

[SouthFloridawx]

LA NIÑA MAY SOON ARRIVE



Feb. 28, 2007 — On the heels of El Niño, its opposite, La Niña may soon arrive. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific Ocean taken Feb. 27, 2007, showing the development of La Niña conditions. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2805.htm

[cycloneye]

Jim Hughes,you were sticking with your La Nina forecast from a long time ago saying what now NOAA confirms in their statement on 2/28/07 (Read NOAA Statement at post above this one) .Now,what remains to be seen is if the La Nina event will stick during all the 2007 Hurricane Season,or it will be a short episode and Neutral or even El Nino trys to come back late in 2007.

[Category 5]

LA NIÑA MAY SOON ARRIVE



Feb. 28, 2007 — On the heels of El Niño, its opposite, La Niña may soon arrive. (Click NOAA satellite image for larger view of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific Ocean taken Feb. 27, 2007, showing the development of La Niña conditions. Click here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2805.htm

That wasn't the news I wanted to hear.

[cycloneye]

Weekly NOAA Update on PDF

Above is the weekly update from CPC (Climate Prediction Center) on the PDF form.From this NOAA made the statement that is in their main site.