Atlantic INVEST 94L

[Aric Dunn]

ok so why isn't the T'storm activity south of cuba moving if it's not 94 L or the upper low which is moving more rapidly NE (what is responsible for this convection?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

ok look.. 94L cannot .. be a UPPER LEVEL LOW>>>>tropical invest are surface only !! and the ULL is still causing that convection south of cuba ..its just hard to see the ULL with all the convection .. but its there

[miamicanes177]

As far as the Jeff Master's comment goes, it doesn't mean too bad to me.


A "Distinct Possibility" and "20% chance" seems almost the same to me. Distinct Possibility really doesn't seem that much more intense, I think I can let this one go as just more creative editing so his logic was easier to understand.

Ok, but he always did selective editing on Barry. He first said he did not believe it would have winds of over 50mph. An hour or so later the hurricane hunters fround a 67kt flight level wind, and Master quickly edited his post to say it likely had 60mph winds, but "I do not believe it will reach hurricane strength". THEN...a few hours later, he edited his post again to say, "NHC is justified in bringing the intensity up to just 50 mph in their 8pm advisory", because the 67kts found were not representative of the storm.

[miamicanes177]

and then miamicanes 177 started thinking they were referring about JEff masters post earlier today of possible tC dev. again easy to get mixed up on that one

This is not what I was talking about and I don't read the comments on his blog because a lot it is gibberish.

[Stratosphere747]

I noticed that to but I'm fairly certain Jeff's comments were written much earlier this morning and based on the previous NHC discos. I'd assume he would have a different view right now.

He edits his blogs a lot and changes words up. I think it would help his credibility more if he would make the edits below his original posts. He is always hammering on Dr. Gray and Klotchbach's forecast so I think he needs to have some accountability as well. Anyone can go back and edit their posts and be right 100% of the time. Just for the record he has edited his comment about this system this morning. He edit from being a "distinct possibility" of a tropical storm, to "20%".

A bit of mistaken identity here...

The Jeff I was referring to is our Houston area Met that sends out info. Either way I think both Jeff's would look at development much differently this afternoon....

[cpdaman]

Aric i understand that ..think outside the box could that t'storm development S of cuba be in line with 94 L either relocating eastward or a surface low slowly developing east of dissapating 94 L and SW of the departing ULL

and thank you for your patience

[Aric Dunn]

shouldn't convection decrease during the day?

not necessarily... it all depeds on the upper support and the low level convergence.... but in general... during the night you have a max convection period when the upper atmosphere is at its coolest and convection is at it peak.. and then during the day you have a time of maximum heating and the upper atmosphere is at its warming at convection is at a minimum.. now that does not always work either... in such cases and strong hurricanes and other factors that play a role in deep convection I.E. thermodynamics... which by the way is the area of hurricane forecasting we have yet to get better at.. it has a lot to do with the intensity of storms

[Aric Dunn]

Aric i understand that ..think outside the box could that t'storm development be in line with 94 L either relocating eastward or a surface low developing east of dissapating 94 L

and thank you for your patience

that is never at all out of the realm of possibilities.. i for one never actually stop looking at a feature.. because in the tropics YOU JUST NEVER KNOW>>>> but sometimes you just have to look at the data and decide if this time there is not enough support for any major development..

i just dont see it happening yet... over there ... not saying it could not I at the moment see nothing but sse winds blowing all the way threw that convection..

[windstorm99]

This area continues to look very disorganized and as noted by the NHC pressures have gone up so any development if any would be slow.I would have to say the chances of anything getting going look rather slim at this time.Hopefully some rain for south florida into the weekend.Adrian

[flwxwatcher]

The only thing I can figure is Jeff Masters is a big follower of the GFDL.. Maybe has based his predictions on Yesterdays 0z RUN...I bet by this Afternoon he will back off further on thinking 94L will develope

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[miamicanes177]

wind shear is decreasing to 5-10kts in the western caribbean

[windstorm99]

The only thing I can figure is Jeff Masters is a big follower of the GFDL.. Maybe has based his predictions on Yesterdays 0z RUN...I bet by this Afternoon he will back off further on thinking 94L will develope

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

He tends to follow more the GFS model.

[Aric Dunn]

wind shear is decreasing to 5-10kts in the western caribbean

yes it is but as i stated in a previous post.. with the decrease in shear .. this time its bringing a much more stable environment which is why there is very little convection behind the ULL

[Aric Dunn]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NW CARIB N OF 18N GENIALLY BETWEEN 76W-85W...WHICH INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF ALONG 14N87W 21N87W
25N83W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY PRESSING
TO THE NW AFFECTING THE YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF THIS
WEEKEND.





that is exactly what i said..... the nhc in the 205pm disscussion confirms what I myself and others have said .. about the convection to the east near cuba is


if you look at my images on the previous pages you will see what they are talking about... bottom of page 6 ..

[Damar91]

All this over a cloudless invest.....I can just imagine what the meat of the season is going to be like around here.

[CrazyC83]

All this over a cloudless invest.....I can just imagine what the meat of the season is going to be like around here.

Yeah, imagine another Katrina-like storm...

[fci]

Well, it IS June so everyone is going to be real pumped up over any Invests that pop up.

That's the fun of the S2K board, you can follow each system from their birth or non-birth!

[Aric Dunn]

somehow I highly doubt this will happen!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

a hurricane landfall in NC is not going to happen!!!! at least not form this system

[CrazyC83]

a hurricane landfall in NC

According to that the pressure would be around 990mb, which is still most likely a high-end tropical storm. Still, I'm thinking dissipation.

[windstorm99]

All this over a cloudless invest.....I can just imagine what the meat of the season is going to be like around here.

Yeah, imagine another Katrina-like storm...

Lets hope things remain out to sea this season and hopefully folks living in hurricane prone areas have taken advantage of these quite times and have gone out and gotten there supplies and created an emergency plan for there familys.Adrian