Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[dixiebreeze]

http://weather.net-waves.com/tropics.php

click on "show me the nhc models" and then scroll to 90 and you'll see the plot map

[Cyclone1]

That's for Andrea, which was 90L.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That's for Andrea, which was 90L.

Yes

[dizzyfish]

Just heard the local FOX13 met from Tampa mention the blob in the GOM. Said they were watching it.

What did your channel say Chad?

[chadtm80]

Basicaly the same thing.. Keeping an eye on it etc...

[GulfBreezer]

New GFS bring it in east of N.O.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

When?

[MWatkins]

The thing that stands out to me is they are scheduling 6 hourly fixes into this system. This indicates that they are taking development pretty seriously.

The good news is that the oceanic heat content in the area is relatively low (compared to other places in the Gulf)...so if it does sit and spin it won't have an unlimited source of energy.

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/da ... t.zoom.gif

MW

Mike do you have any ideas where you think it's headed if it does in fact develop? Thanks.

All depends on where a center closes off if one does at all. If it does develop in the next 24/48 hours it should drift generally northward...but not very fast. There will be a big difference in time over water if the low closes off 30 miles off shore instead of 130...

So without knowing the details...whatever develops will give MS, AL, eastern LA and the FL panhandle plenty of rain...with the early money on a tropical storm making landfall somewhere between the LA/MS border...if I have to guess. And that is really all I am doing is guessing at this point.

These frontal transitions are usually pretty slow...and my intensity guess is that this will be mostly a rain event. But the water is warm and it is that time of year now...

MW

[MGC]

Well, well....I don't like what I see in the GOM this morning at all. We could have a rather significant TC on hand if this thing forms futher out in the gulf where the majority of the convection is located. The majority of the convection is a hundred or so miles out. Considering that this might be a slow mover it will have plenty of time to spin up. The GOM is like a bath so whatever forms could do so quickly. If it forms close to land like Bertha did then there will be little concern from wind....MGC

[N2FSU]

Local met here in TLH says he doesn't believe the low will deepen or become tropical, but said it is something to watch.

[Ivanhater]

New GFS bring it in east of N.O.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

When?

Friday afternoon

[N2FSU]

For entertainment purposes only; this 15:45Z shot teases you with a hint of circular red in the middle of the widespread convection:

[Steve]

Thing is, the pictures "now" don't really tell the story. We have to wait for the Trough to finish deepening in the Gulf and as it stalls out, breaks up or lifts out, that will be when the circulation forms.

As KFDM said, the 12z GFS take it in around the MS/AL border, but there is is a piece of energy that stays behind and then comes in a bit later (didn't look at the hour fixes). The 12z NAM differentiates from the 12z GFS, so we're just going to have to wait and see which one has a better handle on it. Does the system move out in a weakness toward the NE or does it get squeezed back? I guess it's a timing issue, formation area issue and strength of the Atlantic Ridge building in issue. All these factors will come into play, but we won't have that much time to analyze or speculate because it's just going to evolve over the next 2 days right on top of us.

Steve

[dixiebreeze]

That's for Andrea, which was 90L.

Yes

Sorry, I goofed.

[GeneratorPower]

Biggest concern would be flooding rains, followed by a possible hurricane next week (99L, etc.) If that were to happen you'd have massive flooding.

[ronjon]

Bay News 9 MET (Tampa) just showed their VIPIR model which showed significant development in the central GOM heading slowly north toward Mobile Bay on Friday. The model really deepened the storm.

[Steve]

>>Biggest concern would be flooding rains, followed by a possible hurricane next week (99L, etc.) If that were to happen you'd have massive flooding.

Yeah. It would depend on how strong the current system got as to how much water it could sap. If it stays mostly disorganized, it would be one of those rain shield things that probably gets more active daytime. If it became a depression or weak storm, then the east side could see some training for sure. Like I said before, it doesn't look like a system with a 1998 Frances type of setup where you could get over 10" to the east of the system. But there still could be some localized flooding. As for 99L, it looks like the models see it running pretty far south (and maybe too far south to be a threat to the US and A). It's a long way out, so we'll just have to wait and see on that system.

Steve

[HURAKAN]

Erin knows that area very well!!!

P.S. "Erin" if 99L becomes "Dean" before possible 90L.

[Ivanhater]

Bay News 9 MET (Tampa) just showed their VIPIR model which showed significant development in the central GOM heading slowly north toward Mobile Bay on Friday. The model really deepened the storm.

[Ivanhater]

Derek ortts take on the system...

http://www.pnj.com/blogs/weather/index.shtml

[Brent]

Erin knows that area very well!!!

P.S. "Erin" if 99L becomes "Dean" before possible 90L.

The name Erin concerns me... she's been a hurricane each time(3) the name was used(and a major in 2001), 2 times threatened land(2001 Bermuda).