According to Euro, NOT GOOD FOR BEIRA AFTER ONLY ONE YEAR APART FROM IDAI!!!
GFS, ICON and CMC send this to Madagascar, making landfall at different locations and intensity
NAVGEM and WW3 don't show a landfall yet but they develop this as well in the same area
2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Annother potential dangerous system but now in the south pacific, models are in agragement that this will cause trouble in Fiji with some of them saying that it will make landfall there, plus more agressive overall than the potential system in south indian ocean.
NAVGEM says Vanuatu
NAVGEM says Vanuatu
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Astromanía wrote:According to Euro, NOT GOOD FOR BEIRA AFTER ONLY ONE YEAR APART FROM IDAI!!!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019122112/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_safr_11.png
GFS, ICON and CMC send this to Madagascar, making landfall at different locations and intensity
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019122118/gfs_mslp_uv850_safr_45.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2019122118/icon_mslp_wind_safr_23.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019122112/gem_mslp_uv850_safr_31.png
NAVGEM and WW3 don't show a landfall yet but they develop this as well in the same area
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2019122118/navgem_mslp_uv850_safr_25.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ww3/2019122118/ww3_wavehgt_safr_61.png
That is over 200 hours out, so it’ll probably end up as a model phantom.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Even when all models show those systems? I doubt, that happens mostly when only one model shows something that others don't, but we will see
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The GFS now wants a pair of TCs forming on opposite sides of northern Madagascar by Friday/Saturday. Both have a chance to become rather powerful systems.
Meanwhile, model estimates for the potential Fiji system are weaker because they’re calling for a larger precursor circulation, making it hard to tighten up.
Meanwhile, model estimates for the potential Fiji system are weaker because they’re calling for a larger precursor circulation, making it hard to tighten up.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The Euro is going crazy again — it’s calling for a 937 mbar landfall in NW Australia on January 2nd.
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Re: 2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
aspen wrote:The Euro is going crazy again — it’s calling for a 937 mbar landfall in NW Australia on January 2nd.
After the MJO passes the Pacific, models including the Euro are bypassing the IO and show the MJO emerging over the MC with good amplification.
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