2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[otowntiger]

Seems like the Bahama system from the 12z GFS originates from the wave halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The 6z has the system but MUCH weaker. Next few runs will be interesting if the models pick up a significant system developing from this sleeper wave.

MUCH weaker is an understatement. It’s practically non existent on the most recent run.

[Category5Kaiju]

There are three guarantees in this world: we will all die in the future, pigs cannot fly, and the GFS loves showing nothing during peak season in the Atlantic and likes to drop future monster storms just after two or even one run.

[IcyTundra]

GFS is allergic to closing off lows it seems.

[jconsor]

Most here are focused on the MDR east of Caribbean, but there is a building threat closer to home.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1436102398259482624

[toad strangler]

Seems like the Bahama system from the 12z GFS originates from the wave halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The 6z has the system but MUCH weaker. Next few runs will be interesting if the models pick up a significant system developing from this sleeper wave.

MUCH weaker is an understatement. It’s practically non existent on the most recent run.

Love when you show up. PARTY OVER!

[AlphaToOmega]

Seems like the Bahama system from the 12z GFS originates from the wave halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The 6z has the system but MUCH weaker. Next few runs will be interesting if the models pick up a significant system developing from this sleeper wave.

MUCH weaker is an understatement. It’s practically non existent on the most recent run.

Love when you show up. PARTY OVER!

I love taking singular 300-hour model runs as gospel

[Category5Kaiju]

MUCH weaker is an understatement. It’s practically non existent on the most recent run.

Love when you show up. PARTY OVER!

I love taking singular 300-hour model runs as gospel

Again, this is the GFS we talk about, A model that for whatever strange reason, refuses to show any noticeable closed level lows anytime soon during peak season. If that's not suspicious, then I don't know what is.

[otowntiger]

MUCH weaker is an understatement. It’s practically non existent on the most recent run.

Love when you show up. PARTY OVER!

I love taking singular 300-hour model runs as gospel

Are you referring to me?? All I did was comment on a run. In what way does that translate into me taking it as gospel? If I had said something definitive in response, such as: “because of that run means we have nothing to worry about” or because if that run we better all run for the hills” then you might have a point.

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS:
Not much until day 6,
After that, some stronger members head from Yuc channel towards N Gulf...

Also 1 interesting member in W ATL dives SW down towards Turks / Caicos then NW, then N... This will eventually end up near OBX.

[kevin]

00z Euro ensemble seems to indicate that the 2nd wave coming off of Africa might be a nasty non-recurving one.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro ensemble seems to indicate that the 2nd wave coming off of Africa might be a nasty non-recurving one.

https://i.imgur.com/IgeyHAU.png

Euro showing some action...

[Category5Kaiju]

00z Euro ensemble seems to indicate that the 2nd wave coming off of Africa might be a nasty non-recurving one.

https://i.imgur.com/IgeyHAU.png

https://i.imgur.com/tOwQVU8.gif

Euro showing some action...

Ooh, yeah not liking that westward tracking MDR system one bit. With the time of year in mind, it somewhat reminds me of Georges.

[SFLcane]

Eps getting quite bullish bringing something potentially strong near Puerto Rico and Bahamas. Still a bit out but certainly worth monitoring.

[jlauderdal]

00z Euro ensemble seems to indicate that the 2nd wave coming off of Africa might be a nasty non-recurving one.

https://i.imgur.com/IgeyHAU.png

Euro showing some action...

Ridging in place, watch out, this is big trouble

[Category5Kaiju]

00z Euro ensemble seems to indicate that the 2nd wave coming off of Africa might be a nasty non-recurving one.

https://i.imgur.com/IgeyHAU.png

https://i.imgur.com/tOwQVU8.gif

Euro showing some action...

Ridging in place, watch out, this is big trouble

Looks like that trouble-maker would receive the name Peter if that models are to be believed. And I personally know a person named Peter who is also a sarcastic trouble-maker.

[SFLcane]

00z Euro ensemble seems to indicate that the 2nd wave coming off of Africa might be a nasty non-recurving one.

https://i.imgur.com/IgeyHAU.png

https://i.imgur.com/tOwQVU8.gif

Euro showing some action...

Ridging in place, watch out, this is big trouble

Yep, watching how this evolves quite closely.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.imgur.com/tOwQVU8.gif

Euro showing some action...

Ridging in place, watch out, this is big trouble

Yep, watching how this evolves quite closely.

It seems like at the end of the run, the stronger members start lifting this out.

[toad strangler]

Ridging in place, watch out, this is big trouble

Yep, watching how this evolves quite closely.

It seems like at the end of the run, the stronger members start lifting this out.

That would be just about expected as climo goes. But this is just in signal stage right now. Those details (specifically 500mb) are impossible to know .

[Spacecoast]

0z NASA / GMAO....
AEW wave goes NW
some kind of activity into Ga. /SC @ 240Hr?

[otowntiger]

Ridging in place, watch out, this is big trouble

Yep, watching how this evolves quite closely.

It seems like at the end of the run, the stronger members start lifting this out.

Which according to the old adage would make sense, i.e.: 'Stronger=more north; weaker= more west. Of course it will depend solely upon the synoptic pattern in place at the time and specific to the system where it is at that time. But its a decent rule of thumb on average when talking about storms in that general vicinity.