2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Lots of wavebreaking and dry air issues. Party like it's 2013

2013 and wavebreaking in the same post, that's two shots folks

Well, its clearly what the gfs op shows basically 2013 and some.

[skyline385]

Lots of wavebreaking and dry air issues. Party like it's 2013

2013 and wavebreaking in the same post, that's two shots folks

Well, its clearly what the gfs op shows basically 2013 and some.

The GFS is a little behind on the MJO phasing, it’s showing tons of shear in the Gulf and the MDR which along with the dry air is causing the sloppy storms. The ECMWF meanwhile has gradually decreasing shear every run. I would be very surprised if we get through the next 15 days without a system, the models are catching up on the background state slowly with every run.


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[LarryWx]

06z GFS operational perhaps has one or two TDs in the WCar/GOM, but the main action is in the MDR with the first system starting to form at +114 hours. Eventually becomes a MH (looks OTS in this specific run). Behind it are two new TCs in the MDR. Until we actually have a defined source or already a TC, the ensembles are probably more valuable than single operational runs though.

https://i.imgur.com/XGQIOAp.png

https://i.imgur.com/Swn4yOp.png

Just to clarify for those who may not be following closely, this is the same wave that the GFS from 5 runs earlier (0Z of 8/15/22) had as a hurricane hitting the Leewards on 8/29-30. Energy/moisture that comes off Africa to lead to this developing is per this run convection that is currently already centered over SW Mali near 7W, 12N, and already starts emerging from Africa tomorrow evening near 12N just as it did on yesterday's 0Z run. Because operational runs generally have little reliability going too far out in time, I think it is important to note how soon the seed from this potential trouble hits water and how far west it already is in Africa so that it can be followed closely. I'll try to see if I can see it on satellite.

I mean this is the wave the GEFS is developing.

https://i.postimg.cc/VN3L0g0k/gefs.gif

The 12Z GEFS is pretty active with this wave as there are strong members between 47W and 58W on 8/25: (the one near 60W is not from this wave)

[Spacecoast]

Gulp...

[SFLcane]

Scratching my head... If its so favorable why isn't the ecm developing this?

[Hammy]

Scratching my head... If its so favorable why isn't the ecm developing this?

https://i.postimg.cc/XNQ1KkbV/gfs22.gif

Euro is the worst model at recognizing genesis and has been for some years.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

The Atlantic basin is notorious for having a relatively abrupt climatological peak compared to other basins and therefore can be very much susceptible to conditions changing on a dime. So I really don't find it all that surprising that models have suddenly come alive after days (if not weeks) of silence. Intraseasonal favorability is gradually shifting the Atlantic's way, and just in time for peak nonetheless; we are already seeing the effects of this with conditions over in the EPAC becoming increasingly hostile, and poor Ivette has been suffering as a result.

Once again I will reiterate; the CSU didn't choose August 20th as some arbitrary date...

[LarryWx]

Scratching my head... If its so favorable why isn't the ecm developing this?

https://i.postimg.cc/XNQ1KkbV/gfs22.gif

Among other locations affected out of the 31 or so members, there are 3 12Z GEFS members with Hs that later directly affect PR. Also, there are 4 that later landfall on the SE CONUS as cat 2+ Hs along with several others threatening at the end of the run. If not the most threatening GEFS run to date for the US, I think this run almost has to be close to the worst run yet this season. These are almost 100% from that AEW that is currently over SW Mali and soon to emerge from Africa. Keep a watchful eye on it for ~8/25+ in the Caribbean and ~8/29+ in the CONUS. Hopefully it will not end up a problem, of course, and be careful what you wish for (not that wishing has any effect)!

[tolakram]

Threads are filling up with off topic posts and they will be vanishing so we can get some use out of these threads.

If all you have to post is a one liner please refrain, it doesn't add value. Apologies in advance if your post got caught up in the removals.

Please keep this thread on the topic of current model runs and comments about them. Thanks.

[Spacecoast]

Scratching my head... If its so favorable why isn't the ecm developing this?

https://i.postimg.cc/XNQ1KkbV/gfs22.gif

Among other locations affected out of the 31 or so members, there are 3 12Z GEFS members with Hs that later directly affect PR. Also, there are 4 that later landfall on the SE CONUS as cat 2+ Hs along with several others threatening at the end of the run. If not the most threatening GEFS run to date for the US, I think this run almost has to be close to the worst run yet this season. These are almost 100% from that AEW that is currently over SW Mali and soon to emerge from Africa. Keep a watchful eye on it for ~8/25+ in the Caribbean and ~8/29+ in the CONUS. Hopefully it will not end up a problem, of course, and be careful what you wish for (not that wishing has any effect)!

Not to mention 4 members approaching SFL.
Definitely something to watch.....
I count 6-8 members (~22%) that survive the trek past 40W. Some not appearing until past 60W (@~240Hr).
Perhaps 18Z will have more members

FSU has 22% in 168 Hours.

[skyline385]

Scratching my head... If its so favorable why isn't the ecm developing this?

https://i.postimg.cc/XNQ1KkbV/gfs22.gif

Among other locations affected out of the 31 or so members, there are 3 12Z GEFS members with Hs that later directly affect PR. Also, there are 4 that later landfall on the SE CONUS as cat 2+ Hs along with several others threatening at the end of the run. If not the most threatening GEFS run to date for the US, I think this run almost has to be close to the worst run yet this season. These are almost 100% from that AEW that is currently over SW Mali and soon to emerge from Africa. Keep a watchful eye on it for ~8/25+ in the Caribbean and ~8/29+ in the CONUS. Hopefully it will not end up a problem, of course, and be careful what you wish for (not that wishing has any effect)!

Not to mention 4 members approaching SFL.
Definitely something to watch.....
I count 6-8 members (~22%) that survive the trek past 40W. Some not appearing until past 60W (@~240Hr).
Perhaps 18Z will have more members

12Z GEFS is running behind but here is the full 06Z plot, pretty active imo




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[Ubuntwo]

The problem is that the EPS has them at TS strength in the middle of Africa not near the coastline lol. So i have to agree with Andy that there is most definitely an overdeepening bias in the EPS when inland.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220816/d5bbe991c7b2eaac5ebb14733b3317e7.jpg


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Yeah I agree but IMO it's just a weird thing the model does when it wants to show a wave will likely have a good shot at developing.

Agree on that, it’s probably a decent indicator of an incoming strong AEW.


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Yes, the Euro has a well-known 'brown ocean' bias of overamplifying TCs and disturbances over land. Most commonly manifests itself in AEWs but it can be seen in landfalling TCs carrying their intensity far inland. This is one reason it's common to see Euro/EPS support for waves drop off after emerging. It can also lend itself to excessive latitude gain while still over Africa, leading to waves coming off too far north on the model. This means waves may actually find better conditions in the MDR (further displaced from stable airmass), even if not developing anywhere near as quickly as depicted.

[SFLcane]

image removed, TOS

[AutoPenalti]

Patience guys, we will have a good run soon. We are 4 days away from the magic bell. Looks like models are still sorting out the MJO. The ensembles are usually first to catch on signs of waking up.

[jlauderdal]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/158vwWZD/eps.png

Offshore of Lake Worth, yikes

[skyline385]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/158vwWZD/eps.png

Offshore of Lake Worth, yikes

Full run of the EPS, 12 GEFS also had similar members but slightly stronger ridge with some getting into the Gulf near the keys.




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[Blown Away]

:eek:

image removed

Offshore of Lake Worth, yikes

image removed

Yep, Lake Worth!

[Hammy]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/158vwWZD/eps.png

Offshore of Lake Worth, yikes

Full run of the EPS, 12 GEFS also had similar members but slightly stronger ridge with some getting into the Gulf near the keys.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220816/eb9c3aba2dc85e5b98572464664df94d.jpg


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Still almost no waves coming off south of 15N so we may not have much of an MDR season at least in the short term, and in fact it wouldn't surprise me if we see few if any hurricanes east of 65W if this continues--another similarity this season would share with 1988 if it played out.

[Ubuntwo]

Scratching my head... If its so favorable why isn't the ecm developing this?

https://i.postimg.cc/XNQ1KkbV/gfs22.gif

The Euro has a much better upper-level setup over this wave compared to the GFS:


Instead, its struggle is a result of dry air incursions. Why isn't this as much of an issue on the GFS? Take a look at the latitude the waves are emerging.


By the end of the 12z Euro, the wave is under only 5kt of shear with anomalous ridging overhead. Delayed development as seen on the Euro leads this disturbance to a threatening position.

[skyline385]

12Z GEFS feat. the Florida shield (Keys don't count!)